Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010 )
Last night, the much-mocked and highly anticipated Biden son Meme project, LAPTOP coin, finally launched.
Before opening, the market predicted that LAPTOP’s FDV would range between $100 million and $250 million, but its market cap surged to over $200 billion at open. After one night, LAPTOP’s price quickly dropped, currently trading at $0.85, down 99% from its peak, with an FDV of $8.5 billion.
In this meme spectacle, some profited from sniper trades at launch, while many were “counter-sniped” in the process; some earned hundreds of thousands through Substack subscriptions, while others managed to exit successfully after taking big risks. For most who lost money, LAPTOP is destined to become another monument of shame, akin to Argentina’s President Milei’s meme coin, LIBRA.
No wonder Eric Trump mocked Hunter Biden: “You should go back to painting.” It’s clear that for the Trump family, with their business background, drawing K-lines might come naturally—but for Hunter Biden, who once struggled with addiction and is now a “multi-million-dollar debtor,” it’s clearly much more challenging. （Recommended reading: 《Hunter Biden Launches Meme Coin LAPTOP, Plans Airdrop for TRUMP Holders》）
Opening market cap exceeded $200 billion; LAPTOP remained at its peak for less than half an hour.
Before the LAPTOP launch, the community widely predicted its market cap on the first day would range between $100 million and $250 million.
At that time, on predict.fun, the probability that "LAPTOP's FDV exceeds $100 million one day after launch" was 73%, the probability that "LAPTOP's FDV exceeds $250 million one day after launch" was 47%, while the probability that its market cap exceeds $1 billion was only 13%. The market generally predicted that LAPTOP's ceiling would not reach $1 billion, with the main divergence centered on whether its market cap could stabilize above $250 million.
Last night at 8 PM, LAPTOP officially launched on the Base network, reaching its peak immediately with a market cap that surged above $250 billion; the glory lasted only 15 minutes before the price of LAPTOP fell below $130, causing its market cap to rapidly halve; by 8:45 PM, the price plummeted to below $5, a drop of nearly 97%. In less than an hour, LAPTOP had essentially completed the lifecycle of most meme coins. However, from a market cap projection standpoint, LAPTOP has far exceeded market expectations.
With half a day remaining until "close," the probability on predict.fun that FDV exceeds $250 million has risen to 87%; the probability that FDV exceeds $500 million is currently at 52%; and the probability that FDV exceeds $1 billion after one day of listing is currently at 21%.
As of the time of writing, the market capitalization of LAPTOP is $850 million, with a price of $0.85, having fallen below the $1 threshold and dropping over 99%.
A tale of two outcomes: some made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits, while others lost millions.
The LAPTOP token, centered on the concept of "Biden's son," has also delivered a harsh lesson to the crypto market, much like former U.S. President Biden.
At 0:00 today, the on-chain data analysis platform Bubblemaps reported that trading in the LAPTOP token has resulted in massive losses, with approximately 80% of traders experiencing losses. At least two traders lost between $100,000 and $1 million, 100 traders lost more than $10,000 each, around 700 traders lost over $1,000 each, and roughly 11,000 traders incurred smaller losses. Given the current lower price, the scale of these losses is expected to grow further.
Additionally, insider manipulation schemes in “celebrity meme coins” were also present. Bubblemaps posted last night that approximately 60% of the main LAPTOP holding addresses had no prior on-chain activity, and most of these new wallets received funds only yesterday.
Of course, in this meme盛宴, while some lose money, others profit—the meme coin market has always been a zero-sum game.
Profit-seeking groups: market makers such as Wintermute, GSR, and G20
According to on-chain analyst Aunt Aimonitoring, LAPTOP market makers include institutions such as GSR Markets, G20, and Wintermute, with respective market-making token amounts of 15.5 million, 5 million, and 2.5 million, accounting for 2.3% of LAPTOP’s total supply.
Last night at around 9 PM, Wintermute sold over 466,000 LAPTOP tokens at an average price of $4.47, worth approximately $2.08 million, and is continuing to sell on-chain.
Those who took risks in the fire: snipers earned returns of 278x, 65x, and 4x respectively.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a sniper spent only 900 USDC to buy 2,268.56 LAPTOP at $0.40 each, then sold all of them at an average price of $111 per token, earning over $250,000 in profit with a return of 278x.
Additionally, according to Onchain Lens monitoring, a trader bought 471 LAPTOP tokens at $997 and sold all of them two minutes later for $66,800, making a profit of $65,100, a return of 65x.
An address purchased 9,124.19 LAPTOP tokens at an average price of $27.383 on the first day of LAPTOP's listing, spending $250,000; it has since sold nearly 93% of its position at $140.48, realizing over $1.04 million in profit with a return of 415.8%.
A large whale invested $240,000 at opening, buying at $24 per unit, and later gradually sold $1.2 million worth of LAPTOP, earning approximately $1 million in profit.
Suspicious insider activity: Two subscription airdrop wallets cashed out $600,000 after claiming tokens
According to crypto trader Rune monitoring, two LAPTOP subscription airdrop wallets cashed out $600,000 after claiming tokens.
A new wallet (0x8DA...A18d) claimed 4,276 LAPTOP for free, then sold them, cashing out approximately $400,000.
More notably, the wallet subsequently transferred 0.02 ETH to another new wallet (0xc27...b591), which also claimed 4,276 LAPTOP tokens for free and immediately sold them after the price dropped due to the prior sale, cashing out approximately $200,000.
Loss Showcase: Bought at the peak, lost 98%; Tried to catch the bottom, lost 92%; 87%
Last night at 9 PM, according to on-chain analyst Yujin monitored, an address purchased 919.4 LAPTOP meme tokens at $217.50, investing approximately 200,000 USDC. Just about 50 minutes later, the price of LAPTOP had dropped to $4.40, reducing the address’s holdings value by 98% to approximately $4,045, resulting in an unrealized loss of around $196,000, making it one of the most severely losing addresses on LAPTOP.
Another address purchased LAPTOP twice, spending approximately $250,000 in total; the value of the first purchase dropped to $700 within hours, while the second purchase was halved immediately after buying. This address holds 25,286 LAPTOP tokens, with an average cost basis of $9.80, resulting in a 92% unrealized loss, or $227,000.
According to Lookonchainmonitoring, an address spent $170,000 to purchase 28,400 LAPTOP tokens at $5.97 each following a 98% drop in LAPTOP’s price; the current value of this holding is $21,000, representing an additional 87% decline from the purchase price.
Ansem, Bonkguy, Eric Trump lash out: LAPTOP becomes LIBRA, is Hunter Biden the next Milei?
Before and after the laptop's release, several cryptocurrency traders expressed strong bearish views; Eric Trump, mentioned at the beginning of the article, even mocked Hunter Biden by saying he “might as well go home and paint,” further indicating that this spectacle was destined from the start.
Crypto trader Ansem previously stated that 99% of celebrity Meme coins are scams, where celebrities and developers acquire large amounts of tokens in advance, exploit the hype to attract retail investors, then dump their holdings and cease ongoing operations. Ansem is skeptical of Hunter Biden’s upcoming LAPTOP coin, viewing it as no different from past projects.
After the LAPTOP launch, the recently popular "Meme Coin Hunter" Bonk Guy posted a scathing critique of the Hunter Biden "LAPTOP"-related token project, stating that after further observing the project following its launch, he believes it clearly exhibits speculative behavior aimed solely at profiting while showing little understanding of the cryptocurrency industry.
He particularly questioned the token’s post-listing fully diluted valuation (FDV) of hundreds of billions of dollars, calling the valuation “absurd” and raising doubts about why Hunter Biden himself became the central narrative of the crypto market. He noted that Hunter Biden has attracted public attention largely due to the controversies surrounding him during his father Joe Biden’s presidency, while the Biden administration has generally taken a tough regulatory stance toward the crypto industry. Bonk Guy ultimately warned that investors buying the token at its current valuation face extremely high risk, stating that “anyone who buys it deserves to lose 100% of their money.”
It is worth noting that before LAPTOP launched, Hunter Biden had previously explained the reason for launching the meme coin, saying that users “should not expect me or anyone else to make this token more valuable,” and that LAPTOP is not just about holding an asset, but about expressing an attitude. Now it appears that this move resembles the Trump family’s token launch—a failed imitation that backfired, trying desperately to salvage what little dignity remained. Unfortunately, amid the rapid decline of meme coins, the already limited reputation of this “former president’s son” has been completely eroded, turning him into a joke in the crypto market.
Notably, according to prior disclosures by the Phoenix Veritas Foundation, the entity behind LAPTOP, the total supply of this meme coin is 1 billion tokens, with 350 million tokens (35% of the total supply) unlocked at TGE. Of these, 10% each are allocated to the initial community airdrop, future airdrops, and liquidity, while 5% go to the foundation’s treasury. Of the 100 million tokens in the initial airdrop, 20 million are intended to be distributed by partner platforms to users who incurred losses trading TRUMP, and 80 million are allocated to users who subscribed to Hunter Biden’s “Where's Hunter” Substack before September 6. Tokens must be claimed within 30 days; unclaimed tokens will be permanently burned. The 100 million tokens reserved for future airdrops will be distributed at the discretion of the Phoenix Veritas Foundation.
Now that it’s happened, did the users who suffered losses on TRUMP trades receive their promised 20 million LAPTOP tokens as agreed?
Latest updates indicate that the LAPTOP foundation account has been suspended, but Hunter Biden still stated: “We will never give up on LAPTOP and are working全力 to restore the account. In the meantime, the foundation will share updates and insights via the Medium platform.”
Whether this is a delaying tactic or a firm declaration may ultimately depend on Hunter Biden’s own character.