Review today's market trends and stay on top of market dynamics. Good morning, listeners. Today is Friday, August 28, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Peak. Futures Morning Peak—the top choice for millions of futures professionals!
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Hot Topics Guide
1. China and the United States are maintaining communication regarding high-level interactions this year.
2. The Ministry of Commerce responds to the U.S. consideration of imposing an additional 7.5% tariff on China.
3. Kuwait and Qatar have increased crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, with volumes now restored to 70% of pre-conflict levels.
4. Russia says it may strike British military targets inside and outside Ukraine.
5. U.S. initial jobless claims declined, allowing the Federal Reserve to continue focusing on inflation.
6. USDA Drought Report: The percentage of drought-affected areas in U.S. soybean-producing regions has increased by another 2% to 28% compared to the previous week.
7. Shanxi Coking Coal: Xiqu Mine has resumed production.
Macro News
1. According to market reports, Russia has indicated it may take retaliatory measures against the UK for its support of Kyiv, targeting UK military assets both within and outside Ukraine.
2. According to CCTV News, yesterday, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian presided over a regular press briefing. A journalist asked questions regarding high-level interactions between China and the United States. In response, Lin Jian stated that both sides are maintaining communication regarding arrangements for leader-level exchanges this year.
3. On the 27th, the Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference. Spokesperson Huang Ling, in response to questions regarding the U.S. government’s consideration of imposing an additional 7.5% tariff on goods imported from China, stated that the U.S. launching a Section 301 investigation against 16 economies, including China, under the pretext of “overcapacity,” is a typical example of unilateralism and protectionism that politicizes trade issues. China firmly opposes this. We will continue to closely monitor and comprehensively assess the U.S. side’s subsequent actions and reserve the right to take all necessary measures.
4. Cui Dongshu of the China Passenger Car Association stated that, considering the downward profit trend in recent years, the recent decline in automotive industry profits remains significant. Due to the clear policy advantages supporting new energy vehicles, traditional automakers that do not produce batteries lack bargaining power and will continue to face sharply increasing profit pressures. As the national effort to reduce excessive competition continues, its positive impact on improving profits in upstream industries is gradually becoming evident, while downstream pressures remain substantial.
5. Fed's Schmid stated that, with inflation remaining persistently above the Fed’s 2% target, the current interest rate level is not restraining the U.S. economy. Schmid said, “For me, I believe short-term rates may be too accommodative. So, we still have work to do.”
6. The White House stated that there are currently no negotiations regarding Iran; all options are under consideration. It reaffirmed that the United States is focused on imposing economic isolation on Iran; the maritime blockade remains in effect.
7. The U.S. Department of Labor said on Thursday that initial jobless claims, seasonally adjusted, decreased by 4,000 to 203,000 for the week ending August 22, compared to economists’ expectations of 208,000. Initial claims are now at the lower end of this year’s range of 189,000 to 230,000, indicating that layoffs remain low even as hiring activity softens. The U.S. unemployment rate edged down again last month to 4.1%, near historic lows. If the labor market remains stable, the Federal Reserve may continue to focus primarily on controlling inflation.
8. According to the Wall Street Journal, citing informed sources, the Trump administration has repeatedly told mediators that it has no intention of reaccepting the terms of the memorandum of understanding reached with Iran in June. Trump is currently shifting toward applying economic pressure on Iran and is willing to wait and see whether this strategy proves effective.
Global futures market volatility
1. The front-month WTI crude oil contract rose 1.59% to close at $83.54 per barrel; the front-month Brent crude oil contract increased 1.76% to $88.47 per barrel. The U.S. has no intention of reviving the ceasefire agreement with Iran, and the blockade against Iran will continue, causing market expectations for a diplomatic deal between the U.S. and Iran to fade. This, combined with attacks on Russian refineries halting processing and U.S. diesel inventories falling to their lowest seasonal level on record, has heightened supply risks for refined products, pushing oil prices higher.
2. International precious metals futures generally closed higher; COMEX gold futures rose 0.03% to $4,654.80 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 1.76% to $69.22 per ounce. With the Fed’s policy direction still uncertain and multiple countries adjusting their gold strategic layouts, silver is supported by demand from emerging industries, as the market awaits further policy signals.
3. London base metals showed mixed movements: LME tin rose 1.27% to $55,525.0 per ton, LME copper rose 0.37% to $14,306.0 per ton, LME lead rose 0.10% to $1,912.5 per ton, LME aluminum fell 0.03% to $3,224.0 per ton, LME nickel fell 0.07% to $16,875.0 per ton, and LME zinc fell 0.12% to $3,888.5 per ton.
Black Series Hot News
1. According to Mysteel, for the week ending August 27, rebar production was 1.7308 million tons, a decrease of 7.3 thousand tons from the previous week, or 4.05%; rebar mill inventory was 1.6333 million tons, a decrease of 148,200 tons from the previous week, or 8.32%; rebar social inventory was 5.1132 million tons, an increase of 66,200 tons from the previous week, or 1.31%; rebar apparent demand was 1.8128 million tons, a decrease of 148,800 tons from the previous week, or 7.59%.
2. According to Mysteel, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 68.1%, a decrease of 0.1% month-over-month. The daily average raw coal production was 1.529 million tons, down by 0.3 million tons month-over-month. Raw coal inventory stood at 4.022 million tons, down by 0.58 million tons month-over-month. The daily average clean coal production was 0.633 million tons, up by 0.01 million tons month-over-month. Clean coal inventory was 1.443 million tons, down by 2.11 million tons month-over-month.
3. On August 27, Shanxi Coking Coal announced that its Xiqu Mine ceased operations on August 5, 2026, due to a safety accident. Recently, the company received a notice from the Taiyuan Municipal Emergency Management Bureau and the Taiyuan Municipal Local Coal Mine Safety Supervision Bureau approving the resumption of production at the Xiqu Mine. Production at the Xiqu Mine resumed on August 26. The Xiqu Mine is a subsidiary of the company, with an approved annual capacity of 2.7 million tons, accounting for 5.67% of the company’s total approved annual capacity.
Agricultural Products Hot News
1. According to Mutian Technology, on August 23, due to heavy rainfall from Typhoon Zitan, flooding occurred in the sugarcane areas under the jurisdiction of Daxin Sugar Company, with some sugarcane fields submerged and crops lodged or waterlogged.
2. Data released by Brazilian shipping agency Williams shows that, as of the week ending August 26, the number of vessels waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 51, down from 54 in the previous week. The amount of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports totaled 2.2607 million metric tons, a 4.34% decrease from 2.3633 million metric tons in the prior week.
3. Industry insiders say that as many as 70 vessels are waiting near the Sulina Canal on the Danube River to enter Ukrainian ports and load exported grain. Russian attacks have effectively blocked Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, forcing some cargo ships to reroute to the Danube ports, which have much lower handling capacity.
4. According to the National Grain and Strategic Reserves Data Center, the cost of importing palm oil from Malaysia into China has risen significantly this week. On August 26, the CNF quotes for 24-degree palm oil with shipments in October and November were $1,255/ton and $1,275/ton, respectively, up by 57–60 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week; equivalent to landed and duty-paid costs in South China of 10,110 yuan/ton and 10,240 yuan/ton, respectively, up by 400–420 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week.
5. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported net soybean export sales of 740,000 metric tons for the 2025/2026 marketing year, in line with market expectations, compared to 850,000 metric tons in the previous week; net soybean export sales of 24.78 million metric tons for the 2026/2027 marketing year, also in line with market expectations, compared to 17.23 million metric tons in the previous week.
6. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Drought Monitor data, as of August 25, 2026, the percentage of major U.S. crop-producing areas experiencing moderate to extreme drought (D1+) is: 28% for soybean-growing regions, up 2 percentage points from 26% last week and up 17 percentage points from 11% a year ago.
7. On Thursday, the sugar and biofuel analysis firm Green Pool stated in a report that, due to factors such as an upward revision in India’s production outlook, the projected global sugar supply deficit for the 2026/27 marketing year will be slightly smaller than previously anticipated. The firm now forecasts a global sugar deficit of 3.24 million tons for 2026/27, compared to its earlier estimate of a 3.34-million-ton shortfall.
Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News
1. According to the production cost calculation model from Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit for float glass fueled by natural gas was -164.02 RMB/ton, up 4.50 RMB/ton week-over-week; for coal-fueled float glass, the weekly average profit was -87.60 RMB/ton, down 6.47 RMB/ton week-over-week; for petroleum coke-fueled float glass, the weekly average profit was -216.26 RMB/ton, up 6.64 RMB/ton week-over-week.
2. According to Longzhong Information, as of August 27, 2026, the sample inventory of styrene plants in China amounted to 164,400 metric tons, an increase of 13,700 metric tons from the previous period, representing a 9.11%环比 increase.
3. As of August 27, 2026, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 74.049 million standard boxes, a环比 decrease of 365,000 standard boxes (-0.49%) and a year-over-year increase of 18.35%. The inventory days equivalent stood at 33.9 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous period.
4. This week, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers amounted to 1.8727 million tons, an increase of 0.0027 million tons from Monday, up 0.14%. Of this, light soda ash inventory stood at 1.017 million tons, down 0.0096 million tons week-over-week, while heavy soda ash inventory reached 0.8557 million tons, up 0.0123 million tons week-over-week.
5. According to data from Singapore’s Enterprise Singapore (ESG), as of the week ending August 26, Singapore’s fuel oil inventories rose by 817,000 barrels to a three-week high of 19.24 million barrels. Light distillate inventories increased by 539,000 barrels to a two-week high of 11.515 million barrels. Middle distillate inventories rose by 153,000 barrels to a two-week high of 8.427 million barrels.
6. According to foreign media, traders said that approximately 7 to 8 million barrels of oil are now transported daily through the Strait of Hormuz, up from about 4 million barrels in mid-July, equivalent to about three-quarters of pre-war levels. Vortexa reported on Monday that oil flows through this waterway are nearing 10 million barrels per day.
7. As of August 27, the methanol inventory at East China ports was 381,400 metric tons, compared to 382,700 metric tons on August 20, a decrease of 1,300 metric tons month-over-month.
8. According to sources, Venezuela is seriously considering a plan to exit OPEC. Discussions regarding the potential exit have already been held with U.S. officials, but no final decision has been made. Venezuela was once a key member of OPEC, but its significance has greatly diminished. Given that Venezuela’s oil production has declined, its potential exit is unlikely to have a major direct impact on the global oil market.
Metal Hot News
1. According to Mysteel, as of this week (August 27), the spot inventory of lithium ore among 33 sampled lithium ore traders amounted to 1.49 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons week-over-week, with salable inventory at 1.02 million tons, an increase of 0.11 million tons week-over-week.
2. Zhang Wenbin, Head of Market Expansion for the Platinum Investment Association in China, believes that the fundamental logic of long-term platinum supply shortages remains unchanged. For the full year of 2026, considering limited new production capacity on the mining side and resilient demand, a supply-demand deficit of 9.2 tons is still expected. Global visible platinum inventories are at historically low levels. Before 2029, platinum will continue to maintain an annual supply-demand deficit of approximately 19 tons.
Praise the “Futures” Talk — Unveiling the Trading Logic of Assets!
1. Soybean meal futures rise on increased open interest, as concerns resurface over the Black Sea grain corridor.
Everbright Futures noted that CBOT soybeans closed higher on Thursday, as the favorable condition rating for U.S. soybean-producing regions declined, combined with disruptions in the Black Sea grain corridor pushing up global grain risk premiums. Domestically, the main contract for soybean meal hit a new high, rising over 2% intraday, with significant capital inflows, indicating a strong short-term trend. Market participants will continue to monitor developments in the Black Sea situation, U.S. soybean-growing region weather conditions, domestic oil mill crushing inventories, and changes in capital positioning. In the overseas market, agricultural trading has been driven by Black Sea shipping concerns; reports suggest Russia is considering intensifying strikes against Ukraine, pushing corn and wheat futures higher. Meanwhile, CBOT soybeans edged up slightly due to strong demand and spillover effects from rising corn and wheat prices. On the demand side, the U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed that private sales of 3.3 million metric tons of soybeans were made to China. Attention is now focused on Thursday’s export sales report, with expectations of net U.S. soybean sales ranging from 1.3 to 3.2 million metric tons. Domestically, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal saw increased open interest and price gains, with substantial capital inflows. The peak arrival period for soybeans in the third quarter has not yet passed, resulting in ample spot supply. Downstream purchasing remains sluggish, driven primarily by basic demand.
2. Geopolitical tensions ease, methanol sees short-term peak
Dadi Futures stated that on the import side, methanol shipments from the Strait of Hormuz amounted to only 1.2 million tons from Iran, with no significant increase in non-Iranian shipments; it is estimated that monthly non-Iranian shipments arriving in China during August-September will be below 3 million tons. As of now, the strait remains blocked, and September import volumes are expected to decline significantly month-over-month. Regarding port inventories, the anticipated sharp reduction in September methanol imports, combined with planned restarts of some MTO units in September, suggest a drawdown in inventories. Although recent market concerns over Iran’s geopolitical situation have eased, vessel traffic through the strait remains at extremely low levels, indicating a possible short-term price correction. However, trend-based short positions are not recommended; monitor developments in geopolitics, strait navigation status, Iran’s plant operating rates, and transportation conditions.
Today's key futures data and events overview
1. China's iron ore inventory at 45 ports as of August 27;
2. China's self-bred and self-raised pig farming profit and piglet-purchased farming profit as of August 28;
3. Domestic refined oil prices will open a new adjustment window.
