KOSPI Rises 17% on Record Foreign Buying; Analysts Warn of 'Dead Cat Bounce'

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On-chain data shows the KOSPI index surged over 17% on July 31, marking its largest single-day gain ever. Foreign investors purchased 71.8 billion won within the first two minutes and closed the day with a record net purchase of the same amount, while individual investors net-sold 82 billion won. Analysts point to on-chain analysis to highlight risks, warning that the rally may be a "dead cat bounce," and raise concerns about profit margins and semiconductor supply chains beyond 2028.

Odaily Planet Daily report: After a prolonged slump throughout July, South Korea’s KOSPI index surged more than 17% intraday on the 31st, marking its largest single-day gain in history. Although some investors optimistically view this rebound as a “signal flare” indicating a reversal in market trend, market experts argue that the episode once again confirms the fragile structure of South Korea’s stock market, which is highly susceptible to foreign capital flows and volatile swings—this rebound may ultimately prove to be nothing more than a “dead cat bounce.”

Data shows that just two minutes after opening, foreign investors' net purchases of Korean stocks reached 1.6 trillion KRW; by the close of trading, their total net buying for the day reached 7.18 trillion KRW, setting a new all-time high. Meanwhile, Korean individual investors recorded net sales of 8.2 trillion KRW, also setting a new daily record for net selling.

Analyst Lee Chae-won said: "It is currently difficult to determine whether this rebound is merely a temporary technical rally or the beginning of an upward trend." "Ultimately, the key lies in the semiconductor cycle. As the market questions whether high operating profit margins can be sustained, investors should focus on whether semiconductor supply bottlenecks will persist beyond 2028 when making decisions over the next six months." A representative from the asset management industry said: "Retail investors trapped at current highs are likely to sell to lock in profits when the index approaches its previous high of around 8,000 to 9,000 points, thereby suppressing the upward momentum." (Jin10)

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