Kalshi Study: 82% of High-Earning Traders Lack Wall Street Experience

ME News reports that, on October 10 (UTC+8), a study released by the prediction market platform Kalshi found that its highly profitable traders are not predominantly from traditional finance backgrounds, and trading performance is more closely linked to probabilistic reasoning abilities. The study surveyed high-profit accounts across Kalshi’s various markets (excluding sports and special categories) as of September 2026. Questionnaires were sent to 2,360 accounts, yielding 325 valid responses, for a response rate of 13.8%. Results showed that 82% of high-profit traders had never worked full-time at investment banks, hedge funds, private equity firms, or proprietary trading companies; 79% attended public high schools; 65% reported primarily learning about markets and probability through self-study; 91% were not full-time traders; and 42% had worked at least six months in customer service or retail roles. In cognitive ability tests, the average Berlin Numeracy Test score among surveyed traders was 2.42 out of 4.0, compared to an average of 0.62 among a general U.S. adult sample. Among traders, 93% resisted the gambler’s fallacy, compared to 57% of the general public. The study concludes that advantages in prediction markets likely stem more from probabilistic reasoning, information research, and the ability to distinguish between predictable and unpredictable events than from traditional finance experience. Additionally, Kalshi’s analysis of traders’ locations revealed that only 6.3% reside in ZIP codes with median household incomes exceeding $150,000, indicating that the overall user base’s income distribution more closely resembles that of middle-income Americans. (Source: BlockBeats)