Odaily Planet Daily report: The U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi experienced explosive growth during the 2026 World Cup, with trading volume surging from $6.67 billion on June 22 to $24.2 billion on July 14, as trading in the single "World Cup Champion" market exceeded $1.2 billion.
Kalshi says its growth reflects a new trend in the AI era: as AI-generated content proliferates, authentic, real-time, and irreplicable human interaction scenarios are becoming increasingly scarce, making prediction markets a new tool for gauging public sentiment and collective judgment.
Data shows that approximately 75% of Kalshi visitors are not directly trading but are using the platform as an information source to gauge public sentiment about events in sports, politics, economics, and other areas through predicted market prices. Bloomberg Terminal has already begun integrating Kalshi data to capture certain shifts in market sentiment.
Allan Maman, Chief Marketing Officer at Kalshi, said that AI may be driving the formation of a "new monoculture," in which major live events are once again becoming shared focal points of society. Company data shows that large events such as the World Cup, U.S. elections, sports competitions, and award ceremonies trigger surges in trading volume.
Meanwhile, Kalshi is seeking to transition from a sports prediction platform to the next-generation financial trading infrastructure. The company currently holds designated contract market (DCM) status recognized by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and plans to expand into additional prediction markets, including sports, geopolitics, culture, and economics.
However, Kalshi still faces regulatory challenges. Some U.S. state governments have raised concerns over its sports-related contracts, and the CFTC is restricting prediction contracts involving discrete events such as athlete injuries and referee decisions.
On the market side, Kalshi’s valuation is reported to have grown from $11 billion in December 2025 to approximately $40 billion by the end of June 2026, and the company is now entering the IPO preparation phase. Its annualized revenue has exceeded $2 billion. Kalshi believes that future prediction markets will become a critical infrastructure connecting financial markets, news media, and public sentiment by reflecting public judgments about future events through real-time pricing. (Fortune)