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Kalshi Research Report Shows Prediction Markets Outperform Wall Street in CPI Forecasts

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Kalshi Research released a daily market report showing prediction markets outperformed Wall Street in CPI forecasts. The study found Kalshi’s price prediction had a 40.1% lower average error than consensus forecasts. During inflation shocks, Kalshi’s accuracy improved by 50–60%. The report analyzed 25 months of data and noted a 81.2% chance of shocks when predictions diverged by 0.1 points.
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