Kalshi, the platform most known for letting you bet on whether it’ll snow on Christmas, just pulled off something considerably more ambitious. The New York-based exchange has racked up $5.5 billion in trading volume on its perpetual futures contracts in just two weeks, and now it’s looking to expand the business well beyond digital assets.
That’s a remarkable pace for a product category that didn’t exist in the regulated US market until Kalshi launched it on May 29. The platform debuted the first CFTC-regulated perpetual futures contracts in American history, starting with Bitcoin, and the market responded with the subtlety of a fire hose.
From prediction markets to derivatives heavyweight
Here’s the thing about perpetual futures: they never expire. Unlike traditional futures contracts that settle on a specific date, perps let traders hold leveraged positions indefinitely, paying or receiving periodic funding rates to keep the contract price tethered to the underlying asset.
Offshore perpetual trading volumes ballooned from $28 trillion in 2023 to over $90 trillion in 2025. That’s not a typo. Ninety trillion dollars worth of perpetual futures changed hands on unregulated offshore exchanges in a single year.
CEO Tarek Mansour has framed the move as a fundamental evolution for the company, describing it as transforming Kalshi “from prediction market leader to next-gen derivatives exchange.” The $1 billion in notional value, including leverage, that flowed through the platform in its first week alone suggests the market agrees with that assessment.
The initial product, a Bitcoin perpetual futures contract trading under the ticker BTCPERP, was just the opening act. Kalshi has signaled plans to roll out perpetual futures on more than a dozen additional cryptocurrencies, pending regulatory review. The company has explicitly stated it will exclude agricultural commodities from its expansion.
Why regulated perps matter more than you think
Offshore perpetual futures exchanges have operated in a regulatory gray zone for years, often domiciling in jurisdictions chosen specifically for their light-touch oversight. Traders on these platforms face counterparty risk, potential asset seizures, and the ever-present possibility that their exchange of choice gets hit with enforcement action from US regulators. FTX, if you need a reminder, was once the second-largest crypto exchange in the world. It is now a cautionary tale with a very long bankruptcy docket.
What this means for investors and the broader market
The risk side of the equation deserves attention too. Perpetual futures are leveraged instruments, and leverage is a double-edged sword that cuts deeper than most retail traders expect. Kalshi operating under CFTC oversight means position limits and margin requirements will apply. The funding rate mechanism that keeps perps anchored to spot prices can also become expensive during periods of extreme market sentiment, eating into returns for traders holding positions during volatile stretches.
For now, the numbers speak loudly. $5.5 billion in volume across two weeks, with plans to scale into a dozen-plus crypto assets and eventually beyond digital assets entirely.