According to ME News, as of July 28 (UTC+8), combination bets on the prediction market Kalshi have resulted in cumulative retail losses of approximately $294 million this year. Bloomberg reported that such combination bets accounted for 36% of Kalshi’s contract trading volume this month. Retail users typically execute trades at the displayed prices on the interface, while professional market makers and algorithmic traders profit on the opposite side through automated quoting. The average implied win rate for Kalshi combination bets in 2026 is only around 9%, compared to 43% for standard non-combination markets. (Source: Foresight News)
Kalshi combo bets cause $294 million in losses for retail traders in 2026
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Summary
On-chain data from MetaEra shows that, as of July 28, 2026 (UTC+8), combo bets on Kalshi have caused retail traders to lose approximately $294 million this year. On-chain analysis reveals that combo bets accounted for 36% of Kalshi’s contract trading volume in July. Retail traders often accept prices at face value, while professionals and algorithms profit from automated pricing. The average implied win rate for combo bets in 2026 is 9%, down from 43% in standard markets.
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