Kalshi has added three million new users during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the prediction market platform told CNBC.Trading volumes across the platform also surged alongside the tournament.
More than $1.2 billion has traded on Kalshi’s contract predicting the World Cup winner, a record for a single market on the platform. That market closed Sunday, when Spain beat Argentina in the final, 1-0.
A Marketing Blitz Built for the World Cup
Kalshi leaned on soccer’s global reach to fuel the surge. Vijay Viswanathan, associate dean of integrated marketing communications at Northwestern University, said football’s presence in nearly every country gives it an addressable market few other events can match.
The platform partnered with ADI Predictstreet, FIFA’s official prediction market sponsor, for stadium co-branding deals during the tournament. Meanwhile, it also worked with OpenAI to surface its odds inside ChatGPT searches, alongside campaigns featuring soccer stars Luka Modric and Jose Mourinho, plus a partnership with the Argentina national team.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said the strategy prioritizes speed and relevance over volume alone.
“Our volumes are where the news is at.”
— Tarek Mansour, CNBC
Prediction Markets Still Face Regulatory Concerns
Despite the popularity, and the boom from the World Cup, predictions markets carry regulatory risk. Sports event contracts remain caught in a dispute between the federal government and several states, which argue the contracts function as sports betting. That fight has already produced a CFTC lawsuit against Kentucky this year.
In contrast, Brian Sung, a partner at law firm Haynes Boone, said the marketing push does not sway how courts might rule, but it shapes how regulators and the public view prediction markets.
Other bettors have felt the swings too. One Polymarket trader lost $11.6 million on World Cup wagers in early July, while rapper Drake has a five million dollar wager riding on Sunday’s final.
Kalshi now faces a familiar test. Volume drops on days without matches, a pattern Mansour said has repeated after past major events.
He expects fresh catalysts, not a slowdown, to keep prediction market volume climbing once the World Cup ends.