K33: Bitcoin Enters the 'Late Bear Market Phase,' with Market Signals Resembling the 2022 Low

ChainCatcher report: According to market sources, research and brokerage firm K33 notes that the current Bitcoin market structure, derivatives positioning, and ETF fund flows bear striking similarities to the late stages of the 2022 bear market, suggesting a prolonged consolidation rather than a rapid rebound may be imminent. Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, stated that their proprietary indicators reveal “striking similarities” to the conditions observed in September and November 2022, near the bottom of the bear market. However, historical patterns indicate that after market bottoms, extended periods of consolidation often follow; under similar conditions, the average 90-day return was only around 3%. Data shows Bitcoin has declined nearly 28% since January, funding rates have been negative for 11 consecutive days, open interest has fallen below 260,000 BTC, and long positions are being unwound. Spot trading volume has dropped 59% week-over-week, while futures open interest has hit a four-month low. On the institutional side, CME traders remain relatively inactive, and Bitcoin ETP holdings have decreased by 103,113 BTC since their peak in October last year—though 93% of peak exposure remains, indicating institutions are reducing exposure rather than exiting entirely. The Fear & Greed Index recently hit a historic low of 5, but Lunde noted that the average 90-day return following periods of extreme fear has been only 2.4%, far below the 95% return seen after periods of extreme greed, suggesting fear alone is not a reliable indicator of a strong rebound. He expects Bitcoin to remain in a prolonged trading range between $60,000 and $75,000; current price levels are attractive, but patience is required.