Odaily Planet News: Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, said that Bitcoin has fallen about 40% from its October high, with a 11% drop in a single week last week, clearly affected by the decline in global risk appetite. Although the recent price movement has an "alarming similarity" to the deep sell-offs in 2018 and 2022, Lunde emphasized that "this time is different," and expects no 80% peak-to-trough drawdown similar to the previous two cycles.
Vetle Lunde pointed out that the current market environment differs from previous cycles, due to factors including increased adoption by institutions, inflows of capital into regulated products, and a loose interest rate environment. At the same time, several indicators commonly used to assess market bottoms have begun to signal:
On February 2nd, Bitcoin experienced a trading day with a percentile volume reaching 90, a daily trading volume exceeding $8 billion, and the price retracing to the 2025 low.
2. In the derivatives market, open contracts and funding rates have both fallen into extreme negative territory, accompanied by about $1.8 billion of long liquidations, historically such situations often occur simultaneously with a rebound.
Vetle Lunde emphasized that although a bottom signal has appeared, it is not yet conclusive, as similar extreme trading volumes and derivative indicators have appeared during false rallies or mid-course corrections. The key short-term support level is around $74,000, and a break below it could accelerate the downward movement, with targets pointing to approximately $69,000 near the high of November 2021 or about $58,000 at the 200-week moving average. Overall, Vetle Lunde believes that long-term holders currently face no urgent selling pressure, and the current price presents an attractive entry opportunity for long-term investors, without indicating a repeat of the extreme bear markets of 2018 or 2022. (The Block)