Mini Program: Daily Investment Bank / Institutional Insights Summary
Overseas
1. UBS: Gold prices are expected to rebound by the end of 2026
UBS Gold Strategist Joni Teves remains optimistic about gold’s medium- to long-term outlook. She noted that gold prices have risen steadily since the beginning of this week, with mainland China and Hong Kong gold stocks climbing approximately 20% over three days—a positive signal. “We believe market confidence in gold is beginning to improve, and we continue to expect gold prices to rebound from current levels by year-end,” she said. UBS’s global team remains bullish on gold’s medium-term prospects, forecasting gold prices to reach $4,675 per ounce by the end of 2026 and $4,800 per ounce by the end of 2027. She emphasized that key events to watch next include the Federal Reserve’s policy tone at its FOMC meeting at the end of July and further developments in the Middle East.
2. Sumitomo Mitsui: If inflation does not slow down, Fed policymakers will lose credibility.
Joseph Lavorgna, Chief U.S. Economist at Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, stated that if inflation does not slow down, policymakers risk losing their hard-earned credibility. In a report, Lavorgna noted that over the past 70 years, core inflation has declined by 0.9% or more on a year-over-year basis only six times—and in each instance, the slowdown in inflation occurred because the Federal Reserve was tightening policy. Lavorgna said, “The longer the Fed waits, the greater the probability that interest rates will need to rise above what is necessary. This is why so many past tightening cycles ended in tragedy. Chair Powell understands this.”
3. Deutsche Bank: Japan's policy focus may shift from "protecting the yen" to "controlling yields"
Deutsche Bank stated that if Japan aims to achieve its growth agenda, policy focus may need to shift from supporting the yen to controlling government bond yields. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s recently announced growth strategy, worth $2.3 trillion, signifies that Japan “is at a tipping point for major shifts in fiscal and industrial policy.” In a report, Deutsche Bank strategist Malika Sahdev wrote that Japan “needs to create room for increased spending while maintaining fiscal sustainability.” Japan’s growth plan calls for substantial spending increases, with the government seeking to finance these expenditures by mobilizing domestic savings and encouraging large institutional investors to allocate more funds to domestic assets. At the same time, Japan must ensure that nominal economic growth outpaces financing costs. Sahdev noted that achieving both objectives may require measures to limit yield increases—signaling a shift in Japan’s policy direction.
4. ING: Rising energy prices may continue to pressure the yen and Swiss franc.
Analyst Chris Turner of ING noted in a report that as rising energy prices prompt markets to reprice expectations for rate hikes by other central banks, low-yielding currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc may continue to face pressure. He stated that despite rising energy prices, equities have held up relatively well, which could diminish the appeal of the yen and Swiss franc as safe-haven currencies. However, an even more significant factor “appears to be low interest rates and the slow pace of rate hikes by central banks.” The USD/JPY fell 0.2% on the day to 162.90, after reaching a 40-year high of 163.23 on Tuesday. The USD/CHF declined 0.1% on the day to 0.8118, but remains near its overnight one-week high of 0.8133.
5. Mitsubishi UFJ: The U.S. dollar has not been significantly affected by the renewed uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
Mitsubishi UFJ Bank analyst Derek Halpenny stated in a report that, in the short term, the U.S. dollar may remain largely unaffected by the latest round of U.S. trade uncertainty. He noted that President Trump’s new tariff plan is expected to largely replicate the Section 122 tariffs set to expire on Friday, implying that the impact on exchange rates should be limited. Additionally, he said that current market expectations of U.S. rate hikes, combined with elevated risks in the Middle East, are providing some support for the dollar. However, if trade uncertainty becomes more pronounced, selling pressure on the dollar could re-emerge as investors grow increasingly concerned about unpredictable policies and potential damage to the U.S. economy.
6. Deutsche Bank: The European Central Bank's expected hold could ease bond market concerns
Rainer Guntermann, interest rate strategist at Commerzbank, stated in a report that the eurozone government bond market may breathe a sigh of relief on Thursday, as the European Central Bank is expected to hold rates steady and President Lagarde has not pre-committed to a rate hike in September. Currently, money markets anticipate the ECB will keep rates unchanged on Thursday. However, the strategist noted that Lagarde could leave the door open for a rate increase in September. Guntermann added, "The 10-year German bund yield, which has approached a 2024 high of around 3.2%, should provide support, and tomorrow’s release of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) may remind markets that the growth outlook remains challenging." He also noted that recent developments in energy prices have added further uncertainty to the interest rate outlook.
7. Deutsche Bank: UK inflation gives the Bank of England more time
Deutsche Bank analyst Sanjay Raja said that June’s inflation data will give the Bank of England’s policymakers more time. With inflation at 2.6%—down from 2.8% in May—the current overall CPI inflation rate is 0.4 percentage points lower than the Bank of England’s forecast in its April Monetary Policy Report. The bad news is that a rebound in commodity prices, such as energy and fertilizers, will keep inflation forecasts elevated. Inflation is expected to rise further from current levels, potentially approaching 3.5% in the fourth quarter. We believe this will continue to temporarily delay any prospects for rate cuts, while allowing the Monetary Policy Committee to maintain its slightly hawkish tilt.
Domestic
CITIC Construction Investment: Demand for copper and aluminum is expected to improve.
CITIC Construction Investment's research report states that industrial metal prices are determined by both financial and commodity attributes. From a financial perspective, the Federal Reserve has entered an interest rate cutting cycle; from a commodity perspective, global copper and aluminum inventories remain relatively low, China's economic recovery is anticipated, and demand for copper and aluminum is expected to improve due to support from the new energy sector.
2. Wuhan Securities: The fundamentals supporting the upward movement of the A-share market have not changed, and the market is expected to stabilize further.
Lu Zhe, Chief Economist and Co-Head of the Research Institute at Sinolink Securities, told China Securities Journal that the fundamental logic supporting the upward momentum in A-shares has not changed, and the market is likely to stabilize further, with potential recovery opportunities emerging in previously deeply adjusted growth sectors. Some strategic capital has already begun to take notice at current low levels, and substantial inflows into broad-market ETFs are providing support for market stabilization, indicating that downside risk is now limited. With continued backing from strategic capital, the market is poised for an upward rebound. (CSJ Niuwa)
3. CITIC Securities: The new U.S. tariffs are essentially a replacement rather than an escalation.
A research report from CITIC Securities states that the U.S. 122 tariff will expire on July 24, and the Section 301 tariff may become the primary replacement—we believe it serves as a substitute rather than an escalation. After the IEEPA tariff authority was overturned, the Trump administration is attempting to establish a new framework centered on the executive branch’s conventional trade powers: “one model, three tools,” differing from the previous broad-based “reciprocal tariff” approach. Overall, this round of tariff adjustments is expected to have limited global impact. Meanwhile, negotiations among the U.S., Mexico, and Canada regarding the USMCA are ongoing, with the U.S. seeking to use the agreement’s review as leverage to urge Mexico and Canada to cooperate on issues such as rules of origin and market access; subsequent developments may involve repeated back-and-forth between threats of tariff increases and negotiated compromises.
4. CITIC Securities: Positive on investment opportunities in the electronics sector following overselling
According to a research report from CITIC Securities, since July, the technology sector has experienced a significant correction, with valuations of related assets clearly declining. However, the fundamentals in areas such as self-reliance and controllability, AI components, price-increase chains, and consumer electronics have not reversed. In some sub-sectors, current valuations have not fully reflected expectations for future order growth, sustained price increases, and earnings realization, indicating strong potential for rebound from oversold levels. The earnings upturn for domestic semiconductor equipment and domestic computing power has become even clearer. Driven by global AI demand, supply and demand conditions in PCBs, memory, and AI power components are expected to remain robust. Meanwhile, the AI industry trend is likely to gradually extend to consumer electronics, and we continue to maintain a positive outlook on these areas.
5. CITIC Securities: Production capacity reduction is expected to continue into the second half of 2026, with favorable pork prices anticipated in 2027.
According to a research report from CITIC Securities, pig prices are expected to remain low and volatile in the first half of 2026, leading to significant losses across the sector, with substantial cost disparities among listed companies. The industry continues to suffer losses, facing considerable cash flow pressure, while policy constraints are intensifying and their regulatory effects are gradually taking hold. Coupled with the potential impact of extreme weather, pig capacity reduction is anticipated to continue in the second half of 2026, with a favorable price outlook for 2027. Currently, the per-head market value of swine companies has reached a relatively low level, and the sector remains recommended.
6. CITIC Securities: Agents are expected to significantly drive CPU demand, leading to a revaluation of CPU value.
According to a research report from CITIC Securities, agents are expected to significantly drive CPU demand, leading to a revaluation of CPU value. CITIC Securities believes that, under an optimistic scenario, the CPU-to-GPU ratio could reach 8:1, with the long-term market size potentially reaching $2 trillion—exceeding the current GPU market size. 2026 is also projected to be the year of accelerated adoption of domestic CPUs, with their market penetration in China’s commercial sector expected to rise rapidly from single digits to double digits. The report recommends paying attention to leading domestic CPU and GPU companies, as well as key players across the related industrial chain.
7. CITIC Construction Investment: Chemical product exports maintained high growth in June, with the petrochemical and coal chemical sectors performing notably.
CITIC Construction Securities' research report indicates that chemical product exports continued at high levels in June: chemical product exports amounted to RMB 302.5 billion in June, up 22.7% year-over-year and 3.4% month-over-month; cumulative exports from January to June reached RMB 1,604.5 billion, up 13.7% year-over-year. Among these, exports of plastics and their products reached RMB 112 billion, up 24.0% year-over-year, while organic chemical exports reached RMB 68.6 billion, up 40.0% year-over-year—collectively accounting for approximately 74% of the month’s export growth. By country/region, chemical exports to India rose 46.6% year-over-year, to South Korea 42.7%, and to Russia 33.0%, ranking among the highest growth rates. Petrochemical and coal chemical sectors maintained substantial volume increases, with monthly year-over-year export growth led by butadiene (+266,817%), vinyl acetate (+1,035%), and ethylene glycol (+1,020%). Considering export share and cumulative export growth rates, notable products include: PBAT (export share 59.7%, Jan–Jun cumulative growth +48.6%, same below), MMA (24.3%, +57.5%), maleic anhydride (24.1%, +53.9%), MTBE (61.2%, +115.3%), and sucralose (99.0%, +37.0%).
8. Huatai Securities: AI glasses are expected to become a high-frequency entry point for AI agents to enter the physical world.
Huatai Securities' research report states that the AI industry is transitioning from a phase of "model capability competition" to one of "terminal operation and application deployment." With the maturation of large models' multimodal capabilities, AI now possesses the ability to "see, hear, and understand" the real world. Among various terminal forms, AI glasses—due to their first-person perception, low behavioral cost, unobtrusive access, and all-day wearability—are poised to become a high-frequency entry point for AI agents into the physical world. Huatai Securities believes that AI glasses are not merely a single hardware innovation, but a critical vehicle for the penetration of AI productivity into real-world scenarios, potentially transforming human-computer interaction from "active searching" to "passive intelligent services" where what you see is what you get.
9. Wuhan Securities: Domestic liquid cooling has progressed from sample validation to mass delivery, with market share growth expected to outpace industry growth from 2026 to 2028.
According to a research report from Wuhan Securities, liquid cooling has evolved from an optional cooling solution to a critical infrastructure for AI data centers. The full-scale mass production of Vera Rubin marks the industry’s entry into a phase of concentrated performance release. Domestic liquid cooling solutions have progressed from sample submission and validation to bulk delivery. Between 2026 and 2028, market share growth is expected to outpace industry growth. Chinese companies are gradually moving from peripheral cooling sources and contract manufacturing into the supply chains for chip platforms, server ODMs, and overseas cloud providers. Leading domestic firms such as Invek have established end-to-end product systems covering cold plates, quick-connect couplings, manifolds, CDUs, racks, piping, and cooling sources. Some products have passed Intel’s testing, and the UQD series has been integrated into NVIDIA’s MGX ecosystem, indicating that Chinese suppliers have moved beyond the “samples only, no orders” phase. Domestic substitution will begin with volume adoption of manifolds, piping, and certain CDUs, then expand to high-reliability quick-connects and cold plates entering core BOMs, ultimately evolving into a global liquid cooling platform capable of in-house core component manufacturing, system integration, and overseas service capabilities.