JPMorgan Scenarios for Tonight's CPI Data: Market Could Rise if Below 0.25%

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JPMorgan outlined market scenarios ahead of tonight’s inflation data, noting that core CPI results will heavily influence the S&P 500’s near-term direction. If core CPI comes in between 0.15% and 0.20%, the index could rise 0.5% to 1%. A reading of 0.20% to 0.25% still supports a 0.25% to 0.75% gain. However, a result of 0.25% to 0.30% may trigger a 0.5% to 1.25% decline. On-chain data suggests heightened market sensitivity to inflation data ahead of the release.

ChainThink reports that JPMorgan's trading desk has provided a scenario analysis for tonight's CPI data, assessing that the core CPI result will directly impact the short-term performance of the S&P 500.

The bank expects that if core CPI is between 0.15% and 0.20%, the S&P 500 could rise by approximately 0.5% to 1%; even if it falls within the baseline range of 0.20% to 0.25%, a rise of about 0.25% to 0.75% is still anticipated.

However, if core CPI is at 0.25%–0.30%, the S&P 500 could decline by approximately 0.5%–1.25%.

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