According to Chaoxiang Research, J.P. Morgan’s August 9 report raised its 2026 to 2028 storage TAM forecasts by 4% to 8%, noting that the supply-demand gap is expected to persist through the end of 2028. NVIDIA has halved SOCAMM memory from 1.5TB to 768GB and downgraded Rubin Ultra from 16-Hi to 8-Hi/12-Hi HBM4E; J.P. Morgan views these adjustments as temporary measures by customers to address shortages, with AI CPU shipment volumes growing at a 155% CAGR offsetting the per-unit content reduction. DRAM ASP has risen year-over-year for 20 consecutive quarters. Samsung aims to allocate 60% to 70% of its capacity under LTAs; SK Hynix has signed agreements with approximately 10 customers, while Micron has completed 16 SCAs, with advance payments accounting for 20% to 25% of total LTA value. J.P. Morgan expects the average HBM price to rise 42% year-over-year in 2027, with Samsung’s HBM order share reaching 37% to 38% from 2027 to 2028. Samsung and SK Hynix are projected to achieve cash yield rates of 16% to 20% over the next two years.
JPMorgan Raises Storage TAM Forecast, Sees Supply-Demand Gap Until 2028
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Summary
JPMorgan increased its storage TAM forecast by 4% to 8% for 2026–2028, citing a supply-demand imbalance extending until late 2028. TA for crypto traders indicates the risk-to-reward ratio remains favorable amid rising DRAM ASPs and LTA commitments. NVIDIA’s reduced SOCAMM and HBM4E configurations in Rubin Ultra are short-term adjustments. AI CPU shipments are growing at a 155% CAGR. Samsung plans to allocate 60%–70% of capacity to LTAs, while Micron has secured 16 supply contracts with 20%–25% prepayments. HBM blended ASPs are expected to rise 42% YoY in 2027. Samsung could capture 37%–38% of HBM orders through 2028, with cash yields of 16%–20% for Samsung and SK Hynix over the next two years.
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