JPMorgan: Optical Module Market CAGR Reaches 28%, NPO/CPO to Account for 25% by 2030

According to Chaoxiang Research, a J.P. Morgan report dated August 6, citing the latest forecast from LightCounting, the data communications market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 28% from 2025 to 2030, expanding from $20 billion to over $70 billion. The 1.6T product segment represents the largest growth driver, with a CAGR of approximately 120%, contributing around $40 billion by 2030. When NPO/CPO markets are included in the addressable market calculation, they are expected to exceed $18 billion by 2030, accounting for more than 25% of the data center communications market. The telecommunications and data center interconnect market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 18%, reaching $9 billion by 2030. On a near-term earnings basis, J.P. Morgan believes COHR offers the highest earnings certainty, with revenue and profit margins expected to continue improving; LITE is overly discounted, trading at just 22 times its 2028 EPS, leaving room for upside surprises; FN needs stronger guidance for the September quarter to restore investor confidence. In terms of customer dynamics, Google is expected to become the largest optical component buyer by 2030, while Meta will lead in NPO/CPO deployment. NVIDIA’s short-term share in the 1.6T segment is rebounding to 25%, but its long-term share is projected to decline from 18% to 12%.