JPMorgan kept its $240 target on SpaceX (SPCX) on Tuesday, nearly 80% above Monday’s $135 close. Analyst Doug Anmuth’s reason has little to do with rockets.
The bank is betting on artificial intelligence (AI). At $240, SpaceX would be worth over $3 trillion. Grok, its AI model, and newly acquired Cursor would carry much of that weight.
Why JPMorgan Calls SpaceX Stock an AI Bet
SpaceX closed its Cursor purchase on August 14. The coding platform generated about $4 billion in annual recurring revenue as of June. Roughly 75% of it came from business customers.
That matters for two reasons. Companies already paying for Cursor can be sold Grok next. Meanwhile, millions of real coding sessions become training data.
SpaceX wanted a coding asset badly. It also approached Cognition, a rival startup that rebuffed its buyout approach this month.
“SpaceX’s AI ambitions are coming into sharper focus, and we are increasingly positive on Grok,” Anmuth wrote in a note.
The results are already showing, JPMorgan says. Cursor data now feeds Grok’s supplemental training, and recent model performance has visibly improved.
Grok 4.6, Grok Bot, and a September Share Unlock
Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12. Its debut added $500 billion to SpaceX’s market value.
JPMorgan says the model now sits on the Pareto frontier. In plain English, nothing smarter costs less, and nothing cheaper is smarter. That mix tends to win developers and enterprises.
More is coming. The bank expects new models almost monthly through December, with Grok 5 due before year-end. It also flags the Grok Bot launch, an agent that handles workplace tasks for enterprise customers.
Elon Musk has pledged SpaceX engineering data for future training runs. JPMorgan believes more than two decades of rocket-building knowledge could give Grok an edge in real-world engineering.
The bet is not risk-free, however. SpaceX’s AI unit lost $1.26 billion last quarter and absorbed 86% of capital spending.
Supply is the nearer test. Nearly 370 million shares unlock on September 9 and 10, which could swell the float by about 20%. SPCX has struggled since its record June debut, trading for $137.85 as of this writing.
JPMorgan expects enterprise Grok sales to become a bigger slice of SpaceX’s AI revenue over time. The near-term question is simpler. Can the AI story outweigh a wave of new sellers?