Mini Program: Daily Investment Bank / Institutional Insights Summary
Overseas
J.P. Morgan: High interest rates will not hinder the U.S. economy driven by AI capital expenditure cycles
JPMorgan Chase’s Chief Portfolio Manager, Sylvia Sheng, stated that higher policy rates will not hinder U.S. economic growth, as the economy is being strongly driven by an AI capital expenditure cycle that is largely insensitive to interest rates. She added that financial conditions continue to provide strong support, with credit spreads remaining low and corporate fundamentals still solid. She noted that JPMorgan Chase maintains a constructive stance on equities, primarily based on robust nominal economic growth, low recession risk, and ongoing AI capital spending and earnings cycles. She also emphasized that the U.S. remains JPMorgan’s core overweight market, as it offers the broadest and most durable investment exposure to AI capital spending and adoption cycles, with earnings growth momentum now beginning to expand beyond initial AI beneficiaries to a wider range of sectors. JPMorgan continues to believe there is ample room for further expansion in AI-related capital spending.
2. Goldman Sachs: Diesel prices will remain high through 2027
Goldman Sachs stated that diesel prices may remain elevated through 2027 due to constrained refining capacity and renewed demand from governments and corporations seeking to rebuild depleted inventories. Nikhil Bandari, Co-Head of Natural Resources Research for Asia Pacific at Goldman Sachs, said, “Diesel prices need to remain high enough to ensure continued demand suppression next year,” to prevent demand from exceeding refining capacity. Goldman Sachs forecasts that, on average, the global diesel and jet fuel crack spreads—the premium of refined products over crude oil—will exceed $40 per barrel in 2027, more than double the normal level. Bandari added, “If there is any rebound in demand next year, we believe global refining utilization rates will have to rise to the highest levels seen in the past 20 years.”
3. Deutsche Bank: Australians are less sensitive to interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia
Deutsche Bank stated that, despite high levels of household debt in Australia, households have proven more resilient to interest rate hikes than expected, with improvements in household balance sheets helping borrowers cope with the pressures of monetary tightening. Macro strategist Lachlan Dynan noted that household assets have continued to grow strongly, while the debt-to-income ratio has stabilized. He estimates that household leverage, measured by debt-to-assets, has fallen to its lowest level since 1997. Dynan said: “Therefore, the cash flow transmission channel of monetary policy appears less potent than over the past decade, and broader household balance sheets—not limited to housing—may also help offset wealth effects from weak property prices.”
4. Central 1 Credit Union: The Bank of Canada may raise rates only twice, with the first move likely delayed until early next year.
Central 1 Credit Union in Canada expects that the Bank of Canada’s current tightening cycle may involve only two rate hikes, with the first not occurring until early next year—significantly less aggressive than what is currently priced in by financial markets. Bryan Yu, economist at Central 1, stated that Canada is currently in a period of high uncertainty, with economic prospects continuing to evolve rapidly. Sharp increases in U.S. and Canadian bond yields, the impact of tariffs, and volatile oil prices have all made policy decisions more challenging. Yu noted that Canada’s core inflation remains near 2%, while economic growth may slow by the end of 2026 due to trade uncertainties. Meanwhile, higher bond yields could also dampen the housing market’s recovery, limiting both the necessity and room for further monetary tightening by the Bank of Canada.
5. U.S. Energy Information Administration: WTI crude oil price expected to be $88.21 per barrel in 2026, Brent crude oil price expected to be $96.32 per barrel.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook report forecasts the WTI crude oil price at $88.21 per barrel in 2026, up from the previous forecast of $84.65 per barrel, and $79.74 per barrel in 2027, up from the previous forecast of $69.74 per barrel. The Brent crude oil price is forecast at $96.32 per barrel in 2026, up from the previous forecast of $91 per barrel, and $83.74 per barrel in 2027, up from the previous forecast of $73.74 per barrel.
Domestic
CITIC Construction Investment: After the holiday, the market is expected to recover once short-term factors have been absorbed.
CITIC Construction Investment believes that the pre-holiday decline in A-shares was driven by the concentrated convergence of multiple short-term factors, and that the market is expected to recover after the holiday once these short-term factors have been absorbed. In the near term, focus on earnings: October marks the earnings verification period for A-shares; in the medium term, monitor policy: a new round of policy stimulus may be imminent; in the long term, pay attention to liquidity: the probability of a rate hike in October has declined, but yields on 30-year U.S. Treasuries remain elevated. CITIC Construction Investment expects that after the post-holiday recovery, the overall A-share market will continue to trade in a range-bound pattern, with a balanced, defensive-offensive allocation strategy.
2. Zhejiang Securities: The "diamond structure" will continue into the fourth quarter, maintaining a neutral-to-optimistic outlook on the A-share market.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of this year, Shengye Securities expects the "diamond structure" to persist, maintaining a moderately optimistic outlook on A-share market performance. "Currently, variables such as global interest rate hike expectations, geopolitical tensions, and AI narratives remain uncertain, and the market has entered a phase of gradual consolidation, awaiting developments. Overall, the market is currently in a bottoming-out process."
3. Guosen Securities: There is still room for monetary policy in the fourth quarter, with increased fiscal support.
From a global perspective, the international liquidity environment may no longer deteriorate further. The likelihood of prolonged geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East over the medium to long term is low, with a potential window for resolution emerging around the fourth quarter. Economically, although K-shaped divergence continues, the overall expansionary elasticity remains limited. As this K-shaped divergence persists, the inventory cycle is transitioning from the final stage of active inventory rebuilding to passive inventory rebuilding. While structural bright spots still exist, overall expansionary momentum in the fourth quarter is expected to be relatively constrained. Meanwhile, exports are likely to remain resilient. Zheshang Securities further noted, “On the policy front, monetary policy still has room for easing in the fourth quarter, while fiscal support is strengthening. There is potential for reserve requirement ratio cuts, and fiscal spending is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter, with faster disbursement of special-purpose bonds and policy-based financial instruments helping to stabilize the economy.”
4. Xiangcai Securities: For most of the fourth quarter, the macroeconomic and fundamental landscape remained strong, and the market is expected to exhibit a slow bull market driven by earnings resilience.
Xiangcain Securities stated that, given signs of a peak in the short-term macro cycle, investment focus will shift toward mid- and downstream sectors; therefore, it is recommended to continue monitoring defensive sectors related to dividends. For most of the fourth quarter, the macro and fundamental environments are expected to remain strong, with the market likely to exhibit a slow bull trend driven by earnings resilience. As for the AI sector, which continues to enjoy high fundamental momentum, it is advisable to wait for adequate adjustment and internal differentiation before selectively positioning.