According to The Block, a report released on July 30 by the JPMorgan analyst team led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated that the probability of the Clarity Act (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the U.S. Senate this year has fallen to a historic low. Market predictions from Kalshi show a 37% chance of passage, while Polymarket puts it even lower at 26%. The analysts noted that key issues—including ethics provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance—remain unresolved. It is unlikely that the Senate will complete a vote before its summer recess, with the vote likely delayed until mid-September after lawmakers return.
JPMorgan: Probability of Clarity Act Passing Drops to 37% This Year
TechFlowShare
Summary
JPMorgan analysts now estimate the Clarity Act’s chance of passing the Senate at 37% this year, a new low. Kalshi shows 37%, Polymarket 26%. Key issues such as stablecoin yields and DeFi remain unresolved. A vote is unlikely before the summer recess and is likely delayed until mid-September. Altcoins to watch may respond to shifting regulatory sentiment. Fear and Greed Index readings indicate mixed market psychology as delays in clarity persist.
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