JPMorgan: 70% of NVIDIA's FY28 revenue guidance is supply-constrained, with the inference business continuing to grow as a proportion.

According to潮向 Research, the Morgan Stanley investor meeting minutes from September 2 regarding NVIDIA indicate that NVIDIA is “comfortable” with its guidance of 70% year-over-year growth for FY28, which is supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained—meaning business could more than double if supply were adequate. Inference has become the largest and still-growing segment within the data center business; 18 months ago, inference and training were roughly equal, but inference now exceeds training and will continue to rise. Advanced wafers and memory are the two primary supply bottlenecks, with NVIDIA maintaining deep collaborations with TSMC and the three major memory suppliers. The customer base continues to broaden: OpenAI and Anthropic currently account for approximately 20% of end-demand, projected to approach 25% in FY28; new cloud startups now represent over 50% of AI computing infrastructure. Open-source and proprietary models will coexist, and gross margins for model developers are improving. NVIDIA supports long-term demand through revenue-sharing arrangements, the PORTS-Pike campus, and a $500 billion private capital financing platform. Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating with a target price of $320, based on an approximate 20x multiple on its CY2026 estimated EPS of $15.87.