Mini Program: Daily Investment Bank / Institutional Insights Summary
Overseas
JPMorgan: Expect strong demand for the 30-year U.S. Treasury auction
JPMorgan Chase's interest rate strategists stated in a report that the U.S. Treasury’s 30-year bond auction is expected to attract strong demand. “Given the historically attractive yields and reasonable valuations, we believe Thursday’s auction will be absorbed relatively smoothly.” The U.S. Treasury will auction $22 billion in 30-year Treasuries on Thursday. According to Tradeweb data, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries fell 0.1 basis point to 5.285%.
2. Goldman Sachs: Apple's foldable iPhone could reach up to 35 million units in shipments this year
Apple (AAPL.O) has officially unveiled its first foldable iPhone. Goldman Sachs believes its pricing strategy and product design exceed expectations, with the potential to unlock the mass market and significantly benefit the supply chain. Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for foldable iPhone shipments: 14 million units in the base case for 2026 and 35 million units in the upside scenario. (Jinshi Data APP)
3. Société Générale: Trump's team may intentionally suppress the dollar, making it harder for the U.S. to attract foreign investment in the future.
Société Générale FX strategist Kit Juckes said that all actions taken by the Trump team—ranging from pressuring the Federal Reserve to direct currency intervention and suppressing U.S. Treasury yields—“consistently signal a desire for a weaker dollar.” He believes that, with so many policy forces pointing in the same direction, the real question may ultimately become: how to prevent further dollar depreciation—or at least limit the accompanying outflow of foreign capital. In the past, excess savings from other parts of the world rushed to flow into the U.S. In the future, the U.S. may need to make greater efforts to attract these funds to continue flowing in.
4. Ebury: The impact of U.S. Treasury repurchases on the dollar may be greater than on yields themselves.
Ebury’s Chief FX Strategist, Roman Zych, said that for the dollar, the impact of increased U.S. Treasury intervention may be more enduring than the effect on yields themselves. The purpose of repurchase operations was never to address the deficit; however, the market’s interpretation of why the Treasury feels compelled to intervene and resort to unconventional measures has itself become a source of risk premium. This departs from traditional economic logic, where rising yields typically support a currency’s exchange rate by attracting capital inflows. Instead, despite continuously rising yields, the dollar remains weak, as investors increasingly view this as a sign of fiscal and institutional stress rather than economic strength.
5. Aberdeen: An interest rate hike by the European Central Bank this month is almost certain; the policy stance and future path are key
Aberdeen economist Felix Feather said that an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank this month is “all but certain,” adding that the more important question is whether the ECB’s language will signal to markets that this hike is just the next step in an ongoing tightening cycle. “The ECB’s messaging is likely to be hawkish,” Feather said. “The eurozone economy has shown greater resilience than the ECB anticipated, and elevated energy prices, stronger forward-looking wage indicators, and slightly higher market inflation expectations will keep policymakers focused on upside risks.” Feather noted that, given the war’s economic impact has been more limited than expected, the ECB may raise its growth forecasts. However, he added that rates “could still remain at 2.5% for an extended period” after Thursday’s meeting. He stated, “Core inflation metrics continue to decline, wage pressures remain relatively contained, and there is only scattered evidence that the energy shock is triggering broad secondary effects. However, stabilizing energy markets may require de-escalation in the Middle East between the U.S. and Iran—a prospect that currently appears unlikely.”
6. Barclays: The Bank of Japan must signal additional hawkishness to sustain the yen's rally.
Barclays stated that if the expectation of faster interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan fails to materialize and Japanese pension funds do not shift their allocations toward domestic assets as anticipated, the recent strong rally in the yen could reverse, potentially pushing USD/JPY back to the upper end of the 150 range. Strategists including Shinichiro Kadota noted that the yen’s recent appreciation has been driven by expectations of BOJ policy tightening, speculation about pension fund capital flows, and technical factors. Barclays warned that further yen appreciation may require the Bank of Japan to deliver an unexpectedly hawkish signal that exceeds already elevated market expectations. Additionally, the bank highlighted that interest rate differentials, risk premiums in Japanese equities, concerns over high-profile policy shifts, and structural yen-selling flows continue to pose resistance to sustained yen appreciation.
Domestic
CITIC Securities: Chinese innovative drugs are gaining momentum in global markets, and the sector is entering a profit inflection point.
China Securities Corporation states that since 2026, the domestic market for China’s innovative drugs has experienced rapid growth. According to interim financial reports, leading innovative drug companies have seen swift revenue growth driven by new products, with many biopharma firms entering a profitability inflection point. Innovative drugs targeting international markets are now entering the Phase III and registration study realization phase. With several major international academic conferences approaching, numerous innovative drug pipelines are entering a period of intensive data catalysts. We believe China’s innovative drug sector is entering a phase of global value realization and recommend focusing on: ① leading internationalized innovative drug companies poised to enter a period of global product value realization; ② leading innovative drug companies whose products are entering a new stage of market expansion; ③ pipeline assets with global potential likely to accelerate internationalization and value realization. Overall, we maintain an “Outperform Market” rating for the innovative drug industry.
2. CITIC Securities: Reform of ready-to-move-in property sales may accelerate the disposal of non-performing assets
According to a research report from CITIC Securities, the reform of selling completed properties will, in the short term, further accelerate the optimization, revitalization, and disposal of non-performing assets. Assets that remain difficult to sell or land that lacks development potential may undergo changes in usage or be subject to impairment charges. Non-performing assets represent a major burden on developers’ balance sheets; accelerating their disposal may exert some short-term pressure on income statements, but in the medium to long term, it will drive industry differentiation, enabling companies with strong financing capabilities and product development strengths to achieve faster balance sheet stabilization.
3. CITIC Securities: Copper prices are expected to reach $16,000 per ton this year.
According to a research report from CITIC Securities, global primary copper mine production declined by nearly 5% in the first half of the year, and extreme weather and potential disruptions in key auxiliary materials may lead to continued production declines in the second half. Under the trend of improving supply-demand fundamentals, the anticipated ongoing inventory drawdown will enhance copper price elasticity. If incremental tariffs are implemented subsequently, a new wave of intensive inventory accumulation could push copper prices above $16,000 per ton this year. Looking further ahead, CITIC Securities forecasts that long-term copper mine supply growth will remain limited at only 2%–2.5%; therefore, the anticipated supply peak around 2028–2029 should not be overstated, but the production growth and value potential driven by Chinese enterprises should be fully recognized.
4. CITIC Securities: Housing sales reform may accelerate the disposal of non-performing assets
According to a research report from CITIC Securities, the reform of selling completed properties will, in the short term, further accelerate the optimization, revitalization, and disposal of non-performing assets. Assets that remain difficult to sell or land that lacks development potential may undergo changes in usage or be subject to impairment charges. Non-performing assets represent a major burden on developers’ balance sheets; accelerating their disposal may exert some short-term pressure on income statements, but in the medium to long term, it will drive industry differentiation, enabling companies with strong financing capabilities and product development strengths to achieve faster balance sheet stabilization.
5. Zhejiang Securities: The PDH cycle has reached a turning point, with the profit center expected to rise.
Shanghai Securities Research Institute released a research report stating that since June, domestic PDH processes have turned profitable. PDH profitability has reversed its losses, and the long-term profit center is expected to rise. The long-term price center for propane is anticipated to decline. Propylene equivalent consumption is projected to continue steady growth, with an estimated annual compound growth rate of around 3%. On the supply side, co-produced propylene volumes are decreasing, leading to long-term structural supply contraction; industry supply growth has significantly slowed, suggesting an improvement in supply-demand dynamics. Focus on leading enterprises with significant PDH capacity, high integration levels, and notable cost advantages.
6. Southwest Securities: Total excavator sales accelerated in August, with exports surging beyond expectations; loader sales rose simultaneously in both domestic and international markets.
Southwest Securities released a research report stating that in August 2026, as the traditional off-season for construction machinery draws to a close and transitions into the "Golden September and Silver October" period, overall demand growth will rebound, with both domestic and export sales continuing to grow in tandem. The key themes of "replacement cycle, export-led growth, and expanding price increases" will continue to materialize. The industry’s competitive landscape is accelerating its shift from price-based competition toward profit recovery: leading manufacturers have already implemented price hikes on excavators, and these increases are spreading to other product categories such as cranes. Coupled with a likely marginal easing of foreign exchange pressure in Q3 2026 (due to a low base from negative forex impacts in the second half of last year), leading companies are poised to see improved earnings elasticity. We recommend continued focus on leading OEMs and core component manufacturers with high market share, strong overseas presence, and resilient profitability, with particular emphasis on the profit elasticity catalyst window driven by "price hikes implemented, production ramp-up confirmed, and forex conditions improving."
7. China Taisheng Securities: Game industry Q2 2026 earnings saw strong growth, with leading companies delivering solid EPS realization.
China Securities and Zhongtai Securities released a research report stating that the gaming industry's revenue and gross profit in Q2 2026 reached new historical highs, while net profit attributable to shareholders was the second-highest on record but slightly declined quarter-over-quarter; profit concentration among leading companies significantly intensified, while losses among smaller players expanded. Self-developed overseas revenue growth slowed from +40.5% to +18.8%, and domestic market size grew by only +6.9% year-over-year in July—the lowest since 2026—with excess growth driven by overseas expansion and increased concentration. The gaming sector is currently trading at valuation lows; with second-quarter earnings reports completed, leading companies have largely met or exceeded EPS expectations, suggesting a potential rebound driven by capital inflows and valuation recovery.