According to analysis by Jiang Zhuoer (@Jiangzhuoer2), CEO of BTC.com Mining Pool, the Republican Party released a revised text of the Clear Act, claiming a 80% concession on disputed clauses, causing the probability on Polymarket to rise from 14% to 28%. However, upon closer examination, the actual concession is approximately 60%, with key provisions only making half-step compromises. Regarding ethical provisions, the new text expands restrictions to cover officials and their spouses, but still excludes children and affiliated entities, rendering its practical impact limited. On enforcement provisions, while state attorneys general are permitted to sue exchanges for listing non-compliant tokens, they are barred from suing the Department of Justice for failure to enforce or from suing the President directly. Jiang Zhuoer believes that, ahead of the midterm elections, the Democratic Party has no incentive to "gift" Trump concessions; this "false compromise" is unlikely to gain Democratic approval, and the procedural vote at 2:15 AM Beijing Time on September 16 has little chance of passing. The failure of the Clear Act vote may serve as the starting point for a correction in the current BTC price rally.
Jiang Zhuoer Analyzes Concerns Regarding U.S. Clarity Act Compromises; Procedural Vote on September 16 Remains Uncertain
TechFlowShare
Summary
Jiang Zhuoer cited on-chain analysis to raise concerns about the new draft of the U.S. Clarity Act, noting that the claimed 80% compromise is likely closer to 60%. Key issues remain unresolved, as ethical rules still exclude children and affiliated entities. On-chain data indicates limited impact from the proposed changes. The procedural vote on September 16 faces strong opposition, with a likely rejection by the Democratic Party. A failed vote could trigger BTC price instability.
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