Jamie Dimon: Avoid U.S. Stocks and Long-Term Bonds Amid AI Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks

Organized & Compiled: Deep潮 TechFlow

Guest: Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase

Host: Wilfred Frost, Master Investor Podcast

Podcast source: Master Investor Podcast

Original title: Jamie Dimon: Why I Won't Buy Bonds, AI's Future & Leadership Lessons

Broadcast date: July 20, 2026

Disclosure: Jamie Dimon manages JPMorgan Chase, the world’s largest bank by assets (nearly 5 trillion in assets, over $900B market cap). This episode discusses broad market and macroeconomic outlooks and does not recommend any single asset. JPMorgan Chase’s revenue depends on trading volume, assets under management, and investment banking activity; Dimon’s bearish views, if triggering market volatility, could potentially benefit its trading business.

Note: Dimon is the CEO of a large financial institution; the content discussed pertains to broad market, industry, and macroeconomic assessments rather than recommendations for individual assets, and conflicts of interest do not pose a significant issue.

Jamie Dimon, who runs the world’s largest bank, just reported the highest quarterly profit in history at $21.2 billion. But during this 60-minute interview, he repeatedly emphasized risk. His core assessment is straightforward: at current price levels, he would not buy the broader U.S. stock market or long-term government bonds. The issue isn’t whether any single stock is overvalued—it’s that the market has not adequately priced in three factors: geopolitics, fiscal deficits, and the return on AI investments.

He is not bearish on AI; quite the opposite, he believes AI will cure cancer and extend lifespans. However, the pace of investment and the timeline for returns are almost impossible to meet market expectations, and early leaders may be overtaken by newcomers, much like Yahoo and Netscape. In the latter part of the interview, Dimon rarely revealed his personal side: the sinking feeling in his stomach on the day he signed the acquisition of Bear Stearns in 2008, nearly not surviving the aortic dissection surgery in 2020, and his weekly Friday family barbecues.

Don't buy U.S. stocks or long-term bonds.

• If I were an individual investor, I might consider a few truly good investments, but at this overall market price, I wouldn’t buy.
• Long-term government bonds? I wouldn't buy them. Even if inflation returns to 2%, the 10-year bond yield should be around 4% to 4.5%, and we're essentially there already. I don't see where the upside is.

AI investment return

• AI is real—it will cure cancer, and your children will live to be 100. But the money invested is enormous; will the overall return be worth it? Probably, like the internet. Will the returns come in the way and timeframe you expect? Absolutely not.
• We've seen Yahoo and Netscape go bankrupt. Google came later, and Facebook came later.

Geopolitical risks are underestimated

• I believe these risks may be much greater than others think.
• The market may have already baked in some factors, but what hasn't been baked in is what will happen next if these events actually occur.

Budget deficit

• Global debt is about 100% of GDP, with deficits around 5%. These figures typically only occur during major recessions or wars. My assessment is that this will eventually become a problem.
• It will be reflected in higher interest rates. Remember the Bond Vigilantes—they demand higher returns to compensate for fiscal risk.

Leadership

• Bureaucracy, complacency, and their cousin, arrogance, are the bane of any company.
• Customer complaints are a gift. When a customer complains, don’t first think about whether they’re right—look for the part where they might be.
• Some people feel insecure after landing a big position; those who feel insecure surround themselves with friends, alter reports to make them look better, and hide bad news from you.

Wilfred Frost: A few days ago, you reported the highest quarterly profit in history—$21.2 billion, a 41% year-over-year increase. I don’t want to be a buzzkill, but can this continue?

Jamie Dimon: We are a company built for the long term. Clearly, the current environment is nearly ideal for banks: high trading volumes, elevated asset prices, and many people actively trading. This condition may last for a while, but it will eventually end. That’s not how we run our bank. We serve our clients every day, globally, investing regardless of market conditions.

I’d like to remind everyone that our best year wasn’t the one where we made the most money. Our best year was 2008, when our tangible book value return was only 7%, but we outperformed everyone else—that was our most brilliant moment in relative terms.

Wilfred Frost: The current economic data is strong, and both your stock and the economy are doing well. But do you think tail risks are higher now than at most times during your two decades of leadership, excluding 2008 and COVID?

Jamie Dimon: First, I don’t know what probabilities the market has already baked in. If you say there’s a 10% chance of a 40% drop, that’s 4%—just a matter of P/E multiples—so something may already be baked in. But what isn’t baked in is what happens next if these things actually occur.

Do an exercise and list all those complex, long-term, geopolitical fault lines: the war in Ukraine, Middle Eastern terrorism, Iran, massive global deficits, global remilitarization, and U.S.-China relations. These issues may or may not trigger problems. I hope they are all resolved妥善. But I do believe these risks could be much larger than others realize.

Wilfred Frost: You previously said the global economy unexpectedly withstood the oil price shock from Iran. But fighting has reignited, and the strait is closed again. Will we be this lucky this time?

Jamie Dimon: I don't think resilience comes from oil inventories. If you look back, daily supplies dropped by 20 million barrels, but China cut 5 million barrels, released reserves, we released reserves, and another 5 million barrels were redirected to the other side of the Red Sea. This adjustment was astonishing and was not predicted by anyone beforehand.

But oil is just one of the issues. The war in Ukraine is still ongoing, trade negotiations are underway, and the global deficit remains. I don’t know when or how they will trigger problems, but I won’t cross them off the list.

My assumption is that the global economy is more diversified and therefore more resilient, with far less dependence on energy than in the past. But that doesn’t mean there are no tipping points. Tipping points are strange things—when you look back at every one in history, they’re always triggered by multiple events converging simultaneously. It may take more straw to break the camel’s back, and this renewed war might not be enough yet.

Wilfred Frost: If the president asked for your advice, could the economy sustain a military campaign against Iran lasting several months?

Jamie Dimon: You need to distinguish between what’s truly important and what’s economic. Economically, you don’t want to see oil prices rise or unemployment go up—that’s correct. But Churchill held off Hitler alone for 18 months—could the economy have endured that? Probably not. But you did it.

Iran, whether you like it or not, I think it’s naive to pretend this isn’t a major threat to the world. They’ve been killing people for 47 years. They cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons. Something must be done. Why have we allowed so many proxy wars to drag on endlessly?

I think the president needs to step forward and tell the American people: this is important, and we must address it. I can avoid war and not send ten thousand children to the battlefield, but we need a strategy—primarily economic—to tighten their economy until they say enough. This might take a year, and oil prices could rise, but it’s better than them having nuclear weapons a decade from now.

Wilfred Frost: Global debt is around 100% of GDP, with deficits at about 5-6%. How high is the risk? Will this be resolved calmly, or will it be addressed only after it blows up?

Jamie Dimon: These are very high debt numbers and very high deficit numbers. Our economy is actually doing fine; such numbers typically only occur during major recessions or wars. My assessment is that this will eventually become a problem. It would be better if we maturely sat down to address it. Many years ago, Paul Ryan and President Obama tried this—they formed a group to acknowledge the issue and propose solutions, which was the better approach.

Another way is to wait until it becomes a problem, which will manifest as higher interest rates and market volatility. Remember the Bond Vigilantes—they will demand higher returns to compensate for fiscal risk.

Wilfred Frost: So would you buy long-term government bonds now?

Jamie Dimon: I personally wouldn't buy. I know yesterday's inflation data was good, but if you really dig into these numbers, I wouldn't give them too much weight. Kevin Warsh is right—we should look at how these figures are calculated, what they respond to, and how they're weighted.

Even if inflation returns to 2%, the 10-year Treasury yield should be between 4% and 4.5%, and short-term rates between 3.25% and 3.5%—levels that are essentially already reached. So even if you believe inflation will reach 2%, I don’t see where the upside lies. Moreover, inflation has been above 3% for five consecutive years.

As an economic historian, I can't shake what happened after the 1974 recession. Deficits were lower, and the Vietnam War had ended. Interest rates climbed from 3.5% to 5%, 7%, 9%, and 11%. You could argue the oil crisis was the main factor, and unions were stronger back then—both valid points—but inflation never stopped.

Wilfred Frost: Do you think current corporate investments in AI can generate a positive return?

Jamie Dimon: AI is real. This technology will cure cancer, and your children will live to be 100. Many of the illnesses we face today will decrease, new drugs will be developed, and medical misdiagnoses and car accidents will decline. This is wonderful for humanity. Of course, there are downsides, just as there were when airplanes and the pharmaceutical industry first emerged; it is the government’s responsibility to regulate it and ensure we get the best parts rather than the worst.

In terms of employment, I think this is a reasonable concern, but there’s no need to panic. There are currently 8 million open jobs in AI and cybersecurity, and it’s creating more jobs than it’s eliminating. We need retraining systems that enable people to quickly acquire new skills. Many high-paying jobs will emerge in technical fields.

But when I look at AI itself, the amount of money invested is enormous. Will there be an overall return? Probably, just like with the internet. Will that return come in the way and at the time you expect? Absolutely not.

We’ve seen Yahoo and Netscape, both of which eventually went bankrupt. Google came later, and so did Facebook. The internet created enormous value, but the first movers aren’t always the ultimate winners. Companies will become increasingly meticulous about their AI budgets, asking what they actually get for spending $10 million. We’re already finding cheaper ways to do things—some developers are writing code to route queries to the most cost-effective and fastest models, rather than defaulting to their favorite, most expensive ones like many programmers do today.

Wilfred Frost: Looking across the market, does the current pricing reflect a perfect outcome? Would you buy at this level of the S&P 500?

Jamie Dimon: It may not be perfect, but it could be a good outcome. Profits are indeed rising, and you can absorb valuations through growth. But if there’s a downturn, that’s another story.

I invest in individual stocks, not index funds.

Wilfred Frost: Have you bought any stocks recently?

Jamie Dimon: No. But if you came to me with a particularly good investment, I would consider it. At the current overall market price, I wouldn’t buy.

Wilfred Frost: You’ve been involved in a lot with SpaceX’s IPO. What are your thoughts on the company and this valuation?

Jamie Dimon: The price isn’t about whether I want it or not. Thousands of very smart people are discussing valuation and pricing. You need a clearing price. It’s an extraordinary company—I’ve visited. Starlink is an extraordinary product. The idea of a space-based data center may be real: extremely cheap energy, extremely cheap cooling, and extreme stability with no seismic vibrations from Earth. The technical challenge is how to transmit the data back—they use lasers and switch to another satellite when the weather is poor. Starlink currently has 10,000 satellites in orbit, and the next-generation V3 will have 100,000. If you’ve used Starlink V2, you know how excellent it is in rural areas of the UK where no other connectivity is available.

Wilfred Frost: When Lloyd Blankfein was on my show, he said Goldman Sachs had a 15-20% chance of going bankrupt in 2008. Looking back, did JPMorgan have a similar probability?

Jamie Dimon: No, zero probability. Our capital and liquidity are far higher than those of most players in the market. On my first day at JPMorgan in 2004, I saw many companies’ leverage ratios skyrocketing over the previous seven years, and I thought it was way too much. We’ve always been conducting stress tests.

I agree with Lloyd—you need to prepare for survival. I always ask: What’s the worst-case scenario? How bad could it get? If that happens, can each of your business units withstand it? Then add them all up—even if every unit hits its worst case simultaneously, can you still survive? It’s unlikely to happen, but you have to calculate it.

Wilfred Frost: How lonely was it in that moment when you acquired Bear Stearns? What were you thinking as you sat at the table signing the papers?

Jamie Dimon: We conducted extensive due diligence—every asset, every loan, every transaction, their systems, litigation, and personnel records were thoroughly reviewed. There was a significant margin of safety in the price; their book value was $12 billion, but we acquired it for $1 billion, writing it off entirely. The management team was in place the next day.

But in the end, after the board voted and handed you the documents, at the moment you signed, you knew you had just committed the company—not just yourself, but all 150,000 employees at the time—to twelve months of grueling, terrifying work. Shareholders would face pressure, and there would be political gains and losses. You had walked into a storm that could have been avoided. Your stomach dropped. In that moment, you were alone.

Wilfred Frost: You now manage 320,000 employees. How do you prevent bureaucracy?

Jamie Dimon: Bureaucracy, complacency, and their cousin arrogance are the scourges of any company. This is not a problem unique to large corporations. If you run a good restaurant, you still have to serve great food and excellent service every night.

The way to fight back is to always honestly assess yourself. Look at the products and services, read customer complaints, visit the call center, and talk to frontline staff. We don’t run bus tours and road trips just to show up—I want to listen. We bring tellers and branch managers onto the buses, give them beer, grant them immunity, and let them speak freely. Sometimes they tell me, “Jamie, do you really want this?” And that’s when I know something’s wrong with a product.

Customer complaints are gifts. When a customer complains, don’t first think about whether they’re right—look for the part of their feedback that might be true. There’s usually a kernel of truth in there worth acting on.

I’ve seen people on my management team fidget and avoid having lower-level staff report how bad things are. That tells me something about that manager—they may not be suited for the role.

Wilfred Frost: You said character is the most important thing. Did you learn that from founder J.P. Morgan, or is it a coincidence?

Jamie Dimon: It’s a coincidence, but many people would say that. The key is to honestly understand what it means. Would you promote someone you wouldn’t want your own child to report to? Would you be willing to report to them? These questions reveal how you make decisions.

I revived the J.P. Morgan saying: "Character matters." We’ve made it our core principle. This is especially important in banking, because in a sense, we’re financial partners—not buying a piece of steel. We need to know how you behave during tough times, who you are, and how you treat your employees. You won’t find these on a loan application, but they’re a different form of credit.

Wilfred Frost: You said that insecure CEOs tend to become arrogant. Why?

Jamie Dimon: John Weinberger once said at Goldman Sachs: Some people grow into big roles, while others swell up. The higher you rise, the less you truly understand about the position. When you’re doing mortgages, you’re the world’s expert on mortgages. Then you get promoted to oversee trading—you now have to manage equities, commodities, fixed income, and Asia. Promote one more level, and 36 functions report to you; you understand one, maybe learned five, and the rest are completely unfamiliar.

This creates a sense of insecurity. People who feel secure trust others, aren’t afraid of not knowing, are curious, and say, “Tell me again—let me see if I can help.” Insecure people surround themselves with friends, have others create presentations to make them look good, and hide bad news. Reports begin to be altered to look more appealing. The true state of your company—customer satisfaction, complaint rates—starts to disappear.

Wilfred Frost: Is your commitment to New York absolute? Is there anything that would make you say, "That's enough"?

Jamie Dimon: I wouldn't frame it as an either-or situation. But I want to point out that our workforce in New York has decreased from 35,000 twenty years ago to 26,000, while in Texas it has increased from 11,000 to 35,000. Where it’s good to do business and where people want to live involves a combination of factors like taxes, healthcare, commuting, and housing. Mayors need to consider these things because there is competition between cities.

Wilfred Frost: The UK bank tax has been reduced from 8% to 3%. What if it goes back up? Will you still build your new building in Canary Wharf?

Jamie Dimon: I’ve always believed the bank tax is wrong. JPMorgan hasn’t harmed the UK—we’re good citizens, hiring and training people locally, employing veterans, and providing health insurance to all our employees. Penalizing a company that had nothing to do with the crisis, still collecting taxes 17 years later—that’s $5 billion taken from my shareholders. It sounds good to say “tax the banks,” but it has negative consequences.

If the government decides to do it, I can’t stop it, but in the long term, it may lead to decisions they won’t like. Rachel Reeves has done a great job, and I hope London remains our home in the long term. But I would advise the government: a competitive, consistent, and capital-forming tax system is the right way to drive growth. Look at how many companies have delisted from London—if I were in power, I wouldn’t want to see that.

Wilfred Frost: Is your successor definitely Troy or Doug? Is Jen still a possibility?

Jamie Dimon: Troy and Doug are clearly being positioned as possible successors. Others could also be in the mix. Jen has clearly stated it’s not her preference. What’s interesting about this role is that the closer you are to it, the less you want it.

Wilfred Frost: On March 5, 2020, you nearly didn’t make it off the operating table. Aortic dissection. Did your life flash before your eyes?

Jamie Dimon: Before that, what was more painful was throat cancer—radiation and chemotherapy left me completely drained. I knew what an aortic dissection was; many people don’t make it to the hospital, and those who do often don’t leave the emergency room. I knew that moment might have been goodbye. But the good news is, I have few regrets. I’ll leave behind good children, a good wife, and a good company. I gave it my all. Of course, I made mistakes, but not like in the movie “Defending Your Life,” where your dumbest errors are projected on a giant screen. Fortunately, I pulled through.

Wilfred Frost: Final question. What’s the most important career advice you can give the audience?

Jamie Dimon: Learn. There are only two ways to learn: read, and read a lot. Read both conservative and liberal perspectives, read George Will and Tom Friedman—don’t lock yourself in an information bubble. Read more history; history teaches you how people make mistakes during good times and how they persevere during bad times.

Then learn from people. Learn from different people—those smarter than you, or those who are smart in different ways. You’ll be amazed by the stories hidden within others. Ask strangers on the bus about their past; if they trust you, they’ll open up.

Develop your emotional intelligence. Do you have empathy? Can you tell when someone is having a tough day? Some bosses, when they see a trader lose money, say, "Get out." Others put a hand on the shoulder and say, "It’s okay, go home and have a drink—everyone has days like this."

Also, take care of your mind, body, soul, friends, and family. When you're young, under pressure, newly married, or just became a parent, it's easy to neglect certain parts of life. Some people complain they don’t have time to spend with their kids, yet they play two rounds of golf and watch three games on weekends. Skip the golf—take your child to play tennis instead, and find something that’s just for the two of you.