Iran Shifts Policy to 'Comprehensive Offensive' Amid Tensions

Review today's market trends and stay on top of the latest developments. Good morning, listeners. Today is Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Rush. Futures Morning Rush — the top choice for millions of futures professionals!

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1. According to Saudi media Alhadath, sources say the 60-day extension agreement between Iran and the United States has been approved.

2. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Petroleum and Natural Gas Development." It proposes adhering to the principle of "reducing capacity through replacement," optimizing existing capacity, strictly controlling new additions, and continuously advancing the transformation of oil into chemicals, specialty products, and materials to enhance the intensification, precision, and green development of the refining and chemical industry.

3. According to Mysteel's research, four additional coal mines in Qinyuan County, Changzhi City, are set to resume production, with a combined approved capacity of 4.5 million tons.

4. According to Reuters, senior Iranian officials said Iran has decided to shift its policy from defense to a “full-scale offensive.”

5. On August 17, reporters from the Securities Times learned that the Yichun Municipal Ecology and Environment Bureau plans to accept the environmental impact assessment documents for the lithium mining project at the Zhenkouli–Jianxiawo deposit in Yifeng and Fengxin counties, Jiangxi Province, operated by Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. Currently, the EIA documents and public participation statement for the project are in the pre-acceptance public notice phase.

6. National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA): U.S. soybean oil inventories for July were 1.36 billion pounds, below the market expectation of 1.454 billion pounds.

1. Goldman Sachs stated that market expectations for a Fed rate hike remain overly aggressive given that U.S. inflation is cooling. Due to weak retail sales data, disappointing employment figures, and continued slowing inflation, the likelihood of a rate hike at the September meeting is “very low.”

2. According to Saudi media Alhadath, sources say the 60-day extension agreement between Iran and the United States has been approved.

3. According to Securities Times, on August 17, Wang Guanhua, Deputy Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistical Analysis and spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that China’s price levels are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend in the second half of the year.

4. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of August 17, 2026, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Rate Index (Europe Route) stood at 3,246.38 points, a decrease of 4.1% compared to the previous period.

5. According to Fox News: Trump threatened that if Oman obstructs the United States, the U.S. will bomb Oman.

6. According to Xinhua News, Iranian media reported on the 17th that a spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that IRGC officials have not engaged in dialogue with U.S. officials through secret channels.

7. According to Reuters, senior Iranian officials stated that Iran has decided to shift its policy from defense to a “full-scale offensive.” Pressuring the United States or relying on mediators to achieve lasting peace is not realistic. Iran has set several deadlines requiring the United States to fully implement the memorandum of understanding.

8. U.S. President Trump stated that the United States is currently not seeking to extend the memorandum of understanding with Iran. Trump said Iran wants to reach an agreement but will not accept terms he considers “necessary.” He again proposed declaring the Strait of Hormuz as U.S. territory and reaffirmed U.S. control over the strait. He also claimed that the Strait of Hormuz remains open and that oil prices are declining.

1. As of the close of the night session on Monday, the majority of domestic futures main contracts rose, with ethylene glycol (EG) up nearly 3%, synthetic rubber up over 2%, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) up nearly 2%, fuel oil, PET chips, benzene, and asphalt up over 1%, and PTA up nearly 1%. On the downside, starch fell over 1%.

2. The main contract for U.S. crude oil closed up 3.09% at $84.95 per barrel; the main contract for Brent crude oil rose 2.91% to $91.10 per barrel.

3. International precious metals futures generally closed higher; COMEX gold futures rose 0.81% to $4,473.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.22% to $65.91 per ounce.

4. Most base metals in London ended lower; LME aluminum rose 0.23% to $3,259.5 per ton, LME zinc increased 0.04% to $3,758.0 per ton, LME copper fell 0.21% to $14,130.5 per ton, LME nickel declined 0.39% to $16,750.0 per ton, LME lead dropped 0.53% to $1,885.0 per ton, and LME tin fell 0.79% to $55,750.0 per ton.

5. Most international agricultural futures rose: U.S. soybeans increased 1.93%, U.S. corn rose 1.20%, U.S. soybean oil climbed 2.82%, U.S. soybean meal gained 0.58%, and U.S. wheat remained flat.

1. According to Mysteel data, the total global iron ore shipment from August 10 to August 16, 2026, was 32.588 million tons, an increase of 576,000 tons环比. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 27.087 million tons, an increase of 1.402 million tons环比.

2. According to Mysteel, Wuhan Iron and Steel Kunming Steel began a 48-hour shutdown of Blast Furnace No. 2 on August 18, and the wire and bar rolling mills ceased production for maintenance from August 18 to 22. Iron output has been redirected to industrial materials, with an estimated impact of 50,000 tons on construction steel production.

3. According to Mysteel’s research, four additional coal mines in Qinyuan County, Changzhi City, are set to resume operations, with a combined approved capacity of 4.5 million tons. Combined with the four mines that have already resumed operations (total capacity of 5.7 million tons), the resumption of coal mine operations in the county is progressing steadily.

4. According to Mysteel, from August 10 to August 16, 2026, the total iron ore arrivals at China’s 47 ports amounted to 28.56 million metric tons, an increase of 9.646 million metric tons环比; the total iron ore arrivals at China’s 45 ports amounted to 27.069 million metric tons, an increase of 8.371 million metric tons环比; and the total iron ore arrivals at the six northern ports amounted to 13.395 million metric tons, an increase of 2.611 million metric tons环比.

5. According to the main data on industrial production of enterprises above designated size released by the National Bureau of Statistics for July 2026, China’s pig iron output in July 2026 was 68.35 million tons, a year-over-year decrease of 4.5%; crude steel output was 76.93 million tons, a year-over-year decrease of 3.6%; and steel product output was 116.46 million tons, a year-over-year decrease of 4.1%.

6. According to the main data on industrial production of enterprises above designated size released by the National Bureau of Statistics for July 2026, China’s raw coal production in July 2026 was 343.21 million tons, a year-over-year decrease of 10.1%, and coke production was 41.35 million tons, a year-over-year decrease of 1.1%.

7. According to data from Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services, during the second week of August 2026, over 10 working days, Brazil shipped a total of 18.1831 million tons of iron ore, compared to 39.8193 million tons in August last year; the daily average shipment was 1.8183 million tons per day, down from 1.8962 million tons per day in August last year, a year-over-year decrease of 4.11%.

1. Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy expects to complete technical feasibility testing for blending up to 20% biodiesel into diesel by February 2027, with regulatory approval potentially granted at that time; if specification adjustments are required, approval may be delayed until August 2027.

2. According to Longzhong Information, as of August 17, 2026, the total port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 76,800 metric tons, a decrease of 8,000 metric tons from the same period last week, or -9.43%.

3. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Petroleum and Natural Gas Development." It proposes adhering to the principle of "reducing capacity through replacement," optimizing existing capacity, strictly controlling new additions, and continuously advancing the transformation of oil into chemicals, specialty products, and materials to enhance the intensification, precision, and green development of the refining and chemical industry.

4. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Oil and Gas Development." It proposes promoting diversification of upstream gas suppliers, facilitating the integration and restructuring of urban gas companies to ensure standardized operations, and implementing the price linkage mechanism between upstream and downstream natural gas markets.

5. Saudi Arabia is providing oil supplies loaded near the coast of Oman, suggesting the country may be following the UAE’s lead in routing more crude through the Strait of Hormuz. According to informed sources, Aramco is offering crude cargo via ship-to-ship transfers from locations such as Sohar in the Gulf of Oman.

6. According to Longzhong Information, as of August 17, 2026, the total inventory of soda ash producers in China stood at 1.8429 million tons this week, a decrease of 13,800 tons from last Thursday, or 0.74%. Among this, light soda ash inventory was 1.0277 million tons, down 18,500 tons week-over-week, while heavy soda ash inventory was 815,200 tons, up 4,700 tons week-over-week.

7. U.S. Energy Secretary Wright: The government will announce several measures in the coming days to help refineries increase fuel production. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve still holds 300 million barrels, and its level will be higher after the Iran conflict ends than before it.

1. According to Mysteel’s research, a major silicon metal producer in eastern Xinjiang has implemented a furnace shutdown plan due to increased purchased electricity prices, planning to shut down 30 furnaces in late August, affecting approximately 60,000 tons—15% of the national monthly output.

2. According to SMM, Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has officially released the HMA for nickel for the second half of August 2026, at $16,960 per ton, an increase of $314.00 from the first half of August 2026 price of $16,646 per ton.

3. According to SMM, as of August 17, the social inventory of electrolytic copper in major regions nationwide increased by 15,900 tons week-over-week to 133,900 tons, up by 200 tons year-over-year, with inventories rising across all regions.

4. On August 17, reporters from the Securities Times learned that the Yichun Municipal Ecological Environment Bureau plans to accept the environmental impact assessment documents for the lithium mining project at the Zhenkouli–Jiexiaowo deposit in Yifeng and Fengxin counties, Jiangxi Province, operated by Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. Currently, the EIA documents and public participation statement for the project are in the pre-acceptance public notice phase.

5. According to data from Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services, during the second week of August 2026, over 10 working days, Brazil shipped a total of 123,300 metric tons of copper ore and copper concentrate, compared to 95,000 metric tons in August last year; it also shipped a total of 159,200 metric tons of bauxite and alumina, compared to 588,900 metric tons in August last year.

6. BHP stated that copper is the engine driving its growth, with copper demand alone expected to rise from the current level of approximately 34 million tons per year to over 50 million tons by 2050.

1. Urea inventories continue to build! Current fundamentals are in a state of severe oversupply.

Yide Futures research report indicates that the current fundamentals are in a phase of severe oversupply, with the market trading in a range-bound pattern; upward momentum is currently unclear, while downside space is also limited, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction due to exports. In the short term, the 2701 contract is expected to remain range-bound, with attention on short straddle options. Over the medium to long term, the extent of fundamental recovery will depend on an assessment of export volumes, fertilizer stocking in Northeast China, and reserve storage levels.

1. Coal-based enterprises are currently in a seasonal maintenance period, with daily output decreasing from 2.2 million tons to around 2 million tons, slightly easing supply pressure on a环比 basis. However, as maintenance gradually ends and production resumes around September, supply is expected to rebound环比. Additionally, on August 11, the Nitrogen Fertilizer Association held a self-regulation production symposium, encouraging producers to reduce output and alleviate industry supply pressure. However, from a market economy perspective, voluntary production cuts are difficult to implement, making it unlikely to substantially ease supply-side pressure.

2. On August 12, corporate inventories continued to accumulate to 1.6886 million tons. Affected by the delayed export shipment schedule, the domestic fundamentals exhibited a severe temporary surplus.

3. On August 11, the bidding results were announced, with CFR prices at $390.25/ton for the east coast and $393.65/ton for the west coast. The planned procurement was 17 million tons, while the actual amount reached 18.835 million tons. Calculated based on the east coast winning bid price, the estimated export profit remains around RMB 650/ton. The market anticipates China’s supply volume to be between 10 and 15 million tons. If the final bid volume is confirmed, the overlap with northeastern fertilizer preparation and off-season storage procurement will continue to alleviate the fundamental surplus, with expectations of阶段性 inventory reduction for enterprises.

2. Ethylene glycol import supply has significantly decreased, and port resources remain tight.

Hua Wen Futures stated that ethylene glycol currently maintains a structure where the nearby month is relatively stronger and the distant month is relatively pressured. Near-term support comes from two sources. First, weekly import volumes have declined to 12,000 metric tons, indicating a significant reduction in import supply. Second, inventories at major ports in East China stand at only 334,000 metric tons, with port resources still tight. If the spot basis remains high, the 9-1 spread continues to strengthen, and port inventories do not rise, the logic supporting a stronger nearby month will remain valid. However, if import arrivals recover and inventories begin to increase, while the spot basis and spread narrow simultaneously, the sentiment of near-term supply tightness will ease.

1. At 9:00, Pro Farmer releases corn yield data and soybean pod counts for Ohio and South Dakota;

2. 20:15, weekly change in ADP employment numbers for the week ending August 1 in the United States.