Iran and Oman Reach Agreement on Shipping Routes Through the Strait of Hormuz

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1. The President of Indonesia stated that, in the near future, the state-owned enterprise PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia will manage all strategic export commodities, not limited to palm oil, coal, and ferroalloys.

2. According to the central bank, preliminary statistics show that the cumulative increase in social financing scale for the first seven months of 2026 was 22.25 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.74 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year.

3. Market pricing shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates more than once before mid-2027 has decreased.

4. According to data from the Pilbara Ports Authority (PPA) of Australia, iron ore exports from Port Hedland, Australia, decreased to 44.225 million tons in July, compared to 51.7105 million tons in June.

5. According to ICC Xinluo Intelligence, domestic lithium carbonate demand reached 159,700 tons by July 2026, setting a new record high, with available days declining to approximately 19 days.

6. Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

7. U.S. media exposes behind-the-scenes details of U.S.-Iran negotiations: the Trump administration previously contacted the Revolutionary Guard without going through Iran’s negotiators.

1. The President of Indonesia stated that, in the near future, the state-owned enterprise PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia will manage all strategic export commodities, not limited to palm oil, coal, and ferroalloys.

2. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of August 14, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 3,355.24 points, an increase of 79.1 points compared to the previous period. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) stood at 1,846.96 points, up 0.4% compared to the previous period.

3. According to the central bank, preliminary statistics show that from January to July 2026, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.25 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.74 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year. Of this, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 10.17 trillion yuan, a year-over-year reduction of 2.14 trillion yuan.

4. According to the central bank: As of the end of July, the balance of broad money (M2) was RMB 355.51 trillion, up 7.7% year-over-year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was RMB 115.46 trillion, up 4% year-over-year. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was RMB 14.82 trillion, up 11.6% year-over-year. A net cash injection of RMB 725.5 billion was made in the first seven months.

5. Market pricing shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates more than once before mid-2027 has decreased.

6. The U.S. July retail sales monthly rate came in at -0.6%, the largest decline since May last year and below the market expectation of +0.1%.

7. According to foreign media, Iran and Oman appear to be gradually reaching an agreement on the management of the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides having agreed on shipping routes through this critical waterway.

8. Inside the U.S.-Iran negotiations: The Trump administration once bypassed Iranian negotiators to contact the Revolutionary Guard.

9. On August 16, Commander of the Iranian Army, Hatami, stated that U.S. forces have been expelled and are no longer permitted to enter the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, or the Strait of Hormuz. Hatami emphasized that U.S. military bases in the region will never return to their previous status, and Iran will never allow such a scenario to occur.

10. U.S. media: Kushner met with senior Hamas officials in Egypt last Sunday and pressured them to begin fulfilling their commitment to disarm. Kushner is expected to arrive in Israel on Monday to discuss the “reciprocal measures” Israel needs to take.

1. At the close of the night session last Friday, domestic futures main contracts saw more gains than losses: synthetic rubber rose nearly 3%, while paraxylene, ethylene glycol (EG), PTA, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), benzene, and styrene (EB) all rose over 2%, and coke climbed nearly 2%. On the downside, glossy paper and iron ore edged lower.

2. The main contract for U.S. crude oil closed up 1.42% at $82.40 per barrel, rising 5.40% for the week; the main contract for Brent crude oil rose 2.01% to $88.82 per barrel, up 6.31% for the week.

3. International precious metals futures closed mixed: COMEX gold futures rose 0.26% to $4,432.00 per ounce, up 0.73% for the week; COMEX silver futures fell 0.26% to $64.83 per ounce, up 2.09% for the week.

4. Most base metals in London rose, with LME lead up 0.45% at $1,895.5/ton, up 0.45% for the week; LME tin up 0.31% at $56,025.0/ton, up 0.89% for the week; LME zinc up 0.28% at $3,762.0/ton, up 1.48% for the week; LME nickel up 0.20% at $16,810.0/ton, down 1.14% for the week; LME copper up 0.17% at $14,172.5/ton, up 0.69% for the week; LME aluminum down 0.41% at $3,245.0/ton, down 1.07% for the week.

5. International agricultural futures rose across the board, with U.S. soybeans up 0.88%, U.S. corn up 2.51%, U.S. soybean oil up 0.74%, U.S. soybean meal up 0.72%, and U.S. wheat up 3.26%.

1. According to Mysteel, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide is 166.182 million tons, a decrease of 0.8152 million tons环比; daily unloading volume is 3.0371 million tons, down by 0.3211 million tons; the number of vessels at port is 83, down by 40.

2. According to Mysteel, the blast furnace utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 82.64%, up 0.32 percentage points week-over-week but down 0.95 percentage points year-over-year; daily pig iron output is 2.382 million tons, up 0.17 million tons week-over-week but down 2.46 million tons year-over-year.

3. According to Mysteel, on August 13, the Yuyang District of Yulin issued a notice requiring coal washing plants in the area to halt operations and conduct self-inspections; from August 13 to 22, raw coal mining was prohibited and only inventory sales were allowed, with resumption of operations contingent upon passing inspection on September 12. The total production capacity of private coal washing facilities in the region exceeds 30 million tons. Today’s field research at multiple washing plants in the area indicated that the policy has not yet been fully implemented, and no uniform or comprehensive shutdown has occurred.

4. According to data from the Pilbara Ports Authority (PPA) of Australia, iron ore exports from Port Hedland in July decreased to 44.225 million tons, compared to 51.7105 million tons in June; iron ore exports from Port Hedland to China in July amounted to 37.8565 million tons, compared to 45.1118 million tons in June.

5. According to Mysteel, due to weak seasonal demand and losses at steel mills, some steel mills in Shanxi have increased blast furnace maintenance. Currently, 10 blast furnaces in the sampled mills are under maintenance, affecting daily pig iron output by approximately 33,300 tons. The capacity utilization rate and production rate of the 17 sampled steel mills stand at 72.5% and 71.4%, respectively, representing year-over-year declines of 10.1% and 17.2%.

6. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in early August, key steel enterprises produced 19.73 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.973 million tons, a 5.8% increase环比; 18.50 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.850 million tons, a 5.5% increase环比; and 18.19 million tons of steel products, with an average daily output of 1.819 million tons, an 8.2% decrease环比.

7. World Metals & Alloys (WMA FZC) announced that it will cease all sales of high-carbon manganese ore to the Chinese market after fulfilling existing contract volumes. Since the company issued its announcement on July 22, 2026, market conditions in China have remained weak. Port inventories remain persistently high with no significant drawdown, and port pickup volumes have dropped sharply year-over-year, with alloy manufacturers still operating at a loss.

8. According to data from Gangyin E-commerce, as of August 17, the total steel inventory nationwide stood at 9.9753 million metric tons, a weekly decrease of 103,900 metric tons. Among this, the total inventory of construction steel was 5.7107 million metric tons, down 44,500 metric tons week-over-week; the total inventory of hot-rolled coil was 2.2276 million metric tons, down 23,300 metric tons week-over-week.

1. According to Mann Paper, Metsä Fibre will begin consultations this week regarding potential temporary layoffs at its bioproducts facility in Kemi. This planned six-week shutdown in October and November 2026 is related to an investment project to upgrade the plant’s digesters. The Kemi bioproducts facility has a capacity of approximately 1 million tons of softwood pulp, 300,000 tons of hardwood pulp, and 180,000 tons of unbrightened pulp per year.

2. According to the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, during this round of oil price adjustment period (from 24:00 on July 31 to 24:00 on August 14), international oil prices first declined and then rose. Starting at 24:00 on August 14, the retail price caps for gasoline and diesel in China were reduced by RMB 230 and RMB 220 per ton, respectively.

3. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): U.S. oil production is expected to average 13.83 million barrels per day in August, compared to 13.82 million barrels per day in July; September is projected to average 13.77 million barrels per day.

1. Norsk Hydro stated that its Alunorte alumina refinery in Brazil has begun ramping up alumina production to full capacity after reaching a temporary agreement with its natural gas supplier.

2. According to data from the Pilbara Ports Authority (PPA) of Australia, the export of spodumene concentrate from the Port of Hedland in July was 104,155.00 metric tons, compared to 214,021.00 metric tons in June. In July, 104,155.00 metric tons of spodumene concentrate were exported to China from the Port of Hedland, compared to 160,304.00 metric tons in June.

3. According to ICC Xinluo Intelligence, domestic lithium carbonate demand reached 159,700 tons by July 2026, setting a new record high, with available days dropping to approximately 19 days. In terms of contribution, the primary demand growth continues to come from lithium iron phosphate, while ternary and lithium cobalt oxide remain relatively weak.

4. Data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange shows: Last week, copper inventories decreased by 385 tons, aluminum inventories decreased by 13,642 tons, zinc inventories increased by 3,116 tons, lead inventories increased by 4,556 tons, nickel inventories decreased by 203 tons, and tin inventories increased by 516 tons.

1. Accelerated coal mine accidents and increased coking coal prices

Jinrui Futures research report indicates accelerated inventory drawdown for coking coal. According to the latest data from Steelhome, domestic sample mine output of coking coal concentrate has declined, while steel mills and coke plants continue to replenish raw material inventories, shifting the upstream inventory drawdown downstream; total social inventories are declining at an accelerated pace, and the overall inventory reduction for both coke and coking coal continues to quicken. A coal mine accident in Hunan has exacerbated the severe safety supervision situation. According to reports, at 5:08 a.m. on August 14, a gas outburst accident occurred at the Yangmeishan Coal Mine in Lianyuan City, Hunan Province. We maintain our view that coking coal supply will remain tight in the short term, with inventory drawdown combined with heightened expectations of stricter safety inspections due to the mine accident. As the September contract delivery approaches, market dynamics are expected to intensify; coking coal 2609 may remain range-bound with a bullish bias, but as mine production resumes, the distant-month coking coal 2701 may be relatively weaker.

2. How do the fires in Indonesia affect palm oil?

Galaxy Futures research report points out that since June, Indonesia's monthly rainfall has significantly declined and remained at historically low levels for this time of year, while maximum temperatures have consistently stayed at historically high levels, even exceeding those of the same period in 2015. The El Niño climate phenomenon has intensified drought conditions during Indonesia’s dry season, increasing the dryness of vegetation and peatlands, creating favorable conditions for fires and exacerbating their severity and spread rate. The El Niño weather pattern has clearly led to reduced palm oil production forecasts for Indonesia; previous El Niño events caused palm oil production declines of approximately 2%-5%. If Indonesia’s palm oil output decreases this year, the reduction in the second half, particularly in the fourth quarter, could reach 3%-5%, placing output at historically low levels for this period. Additionally, for next year’s production, Oil World forecasts Indonesia’s palm oil output to drop to 47.6 million tons in 2027, a year-over-year decrease of 1.6 million tons, or 3%.

1. On August 17 at 10:00, China's July economic performance data was released.

2. On August 18 at 04:00, the USDA released its weekly crop progress report.

3. On August 19 at 22:30, the U.S. released the weekly EIA crude oil inventory report.

4. On August 20 at 02:00, the Federal Reserve released the FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes.

5. On August 20 at 09:00, China announced the August Loan Prime Rate (LPR).

6. On August 21 at 02:30, the NYMEX New York Crude Oil September futures contract will roll over to the next month.

7. On August 21 at 21:45, the United States released the preliminary August S&P Global PMI.

8. On August 22 at 03:30, the CFTC released the weekly commodities positioning report.