Intuit posted fiscal Q4 adjusted earnings of $4.03 per share, comfortably beating the $3.58 analysts expected. The stock dropped 12% anyway. Welcome to the SaaS market in 2026, where beating estimates matters less than convincing investors you won’t get eaten alive by AI.
Shares of the TurboTax and QuickBooks parent fell to roughly $315 on August 26, with the damage spilling across the software sector. Adobe and ServiceNow each dropped about 3% in sympathy.
The guidance that spooked Wall Street
But the FY2027 outlook told a different story. Management guided for revenue of $23.28 billion to $23.51 billion, translating to just 9-10% growth.
The pain was concentrated in TurboTax, where revenue growth is projected at a meager 2-3% for the coming fiscal year.
Goldman Sachs had already seen this coming. The bank downgraded Intuit to Sell back in June, citing AI competition as a structural threat to the company’s core business lines.
The SaaSpocalypse thesis gains momentum
ServiceNow experienced its own version of this in July, when its stock fell around 4% tied to broader AI-related anxieties. Adobe took another hit alongside Intuit.
A fund publicly exited its Intuit position in Q2 2026, specifically citing concerns about TurboTax’s vulnerability to AI disruption.
Intuit’s AI defense strategy
Intuit has forged a multi-year partnership with OpenAI to build AI-powered tax preparation experiences and other consumer-facing tools. Intuit has also launched QuickBooks Free, targeting price-sensitive small business owners who might otherwise turn to cheaper AI-native alternatives.
These moves come after Intuit laid off approximately 3,000 employees earlier in 2026, representing about 17% of its workforce. The restructuring was framed as a reallocation of resources toward AI development.