Institutional Investors Accumulate Bitcoin Amid Market Recovery

Original ｜ Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Golem (@web3_golem)

The bull is back. In the early hours of August 20 Beijing time, remarks made by Trump at a White House gathering with crypto industry executives boosted Bitcoin above $70,000, with a 24-hour gain exceeding 10% (Related reading:What Did Trump Say During Crypto’s Explosive Night?). With the "Crypto President" back in action, Bitcoin’s sluggish period is coming to an end. After today, many retail investors may redirect more attention and capital from AI stocks back into the crypto market.

However, traditional financial institutions and asset management giants, always one step ahead, had already completed their Bitcoin accumulation strategies before Trump’s favorable policies emerged. According to 13F quarterly filings from major institutions, in the second quarter of 2026, despite a 14% decline in Bitcoin’s price, institutional holdings increased by 7.5%, indicating that institutions continued to expand their positions ahead of Bitcoin’s market recovery.

Which institutions have quietly increased their Bitcoin exposure? Will we see Bitcoin below $65,000 again, and has the bear market bottom been confirmed? Odaily Planet Daily will tally the institutions that disclosed increased Bitcoin exposure in their 13F filings, along with their views on Bitcoin’s future price movement.

Institutions primarily gain exposure to Bitcoin through Bitcoin spot ETFs and Bitcoin treasury company stocks.

Q2 2026: Institutional Bitcoin ETF holdings increased by 7.5%

Looking at the overall data, according to Bitcoin analyst Root, during Q2 2026, total ETF holdings decreased from 1,297,010 BTC to 1,211,322 BTC, a 6.6% decline, while institutional holdings rose from 498,389 BTC to 535,723 BTC, an increase of 7.5%. The institutional share of holdings grew from 38.4% to 44.2%, reaching a record high. This indicates that during a weak crypto market, retail investors significantly reduced their Bitcoin ETF positions, while institutions continued accumulating positions at the bottom.

However, not all institutions are increasing their Bitcoin ETF holdings; the increases are primarily concentrated among top-tier institutions. According to statistics, overall, the number of institutions holding Bitcoin decreased from approximately 2,000 in the first quarter to nearly 1,900 in the second quarter, a decline of about 6.8%; however, among the top 25 Bitcoin ETF holders, 17 increased their holdings in the second quarter.

This indicates that for most institutions, holding onto Bitcoin during a bear market is quite challenging. Nevertheless, according to Root, in Q2 2026, nine institutions allocated more than 100 Bitcoin for the first time.

Next, Odaily Planet Daily will review some of the top institutions that disclosed increased Bitcoin exposure in their 13F filings.

Jane Street: Increased Bitcoin ETF exposure by approximately $600 million, added over $200 million in MSTR

As of June 30, Jane Street disclosed a total value of approximately $990 million in spot Bitcoin ETFs, with BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF IBIT accounting for $828 million, or about 24.9 million shares. In Q1 2026, Jane Street disclosed a total value of only $225 million in spot Bitcoin ETFs, or approximately 5.9 million shares, indicating an increase of about $600 million in Jane Street’s Bitcoin ETF exposure from Q1 to Q2.

Additionally, Jane Street significantly increased its stake in Strategy (MSTR), rising from 209,833 shares in the first quarter (valued at approximately $26.2 million) to 2,677,622 shares in the second quarter (valued at approximately $232.76 million), an increase of about 2,467,789 shares, or roughly 1,176%, with a value exceeding $200 million.

In summary, in Q2 2026, Jane Street increased its Bitcoin exposure by over $800 million.

However, it should be noted that Jane Street’s situation differs from that of traditional asset management firms; Form 13F only discloses long positions in common stocks (excluding options, short positions, etc.). As a typical quantitative trading/market-making firm, Jane Street may hold short positions in Bitcoin ETFs and MSTR, meaning its actual Bitcoin exposure could be misstated. Even though its long positions cannot be simply interpreted as long-term directional bets, their scale is still remarkably significant.

BlackRock: Bitcoin exposure increased by approximately $290 million in Q2

In the second quarter, BlackRock increased its investments in three Bitcoin-related assets: Strategy (MSTR), IBIT, and Strive (ASST).

BlackRock increased its MSTR holdings from approximately 17.75 million shares to 19,394,284 shares (valued at $1.69 billion), adding 1,640,399 shares (worth approximately $238 million), a 9.24% sequential increase. (Odaily Planet Daily note: BlackRock’s data differs from Jane Street’s; this article relies primarily on disclosures in the 13F filings.)

Second, BlackRock also increased its position in its own spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, adding 1,024,742 shares (worth approximately $41.7 million), bringing its total holdings to 15,034,046 shares, valued at around $500 million, by the end of Q2. Finally, BlackRock also increased its stake in Bitcoin treasury company Strive (ASST), adding 1,636,854 shares (worth approximately $17.86 million), a 45.1% increase, with total holdings reaching 5.266 million shares valued at $57.5 million by the end of Q2; Strive currently holds over 20,000 Bitcoin.

In summary, BlackRock's Bitcoin exposure increased by approximately $290 million in Q2.

JPMorgan: Increased holdings of IBIT by $85.6 million

JPMorgan Chase primarily increased its holdings in BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, during Q2, adding 2,104,944 shares (worth approximately $85.6 million), a 25.35% increase, raising its position from 8,302,691 shares in Q1 to 10,407,635 shares, with a total holding value of approximately $356 million.

UBS: IBIT call option exposure increased 24-fold in the second quarter

Q2, UBS's direct holding of IBIT increased by 12% to 407,890 shares (valued at approximately $13.6 million). Although the increase in direct holdings was relatively modest, it still exceeds the Q1 2026 level of 364,000 shares and remains below the end-of-2025 level of approximately 540,000 shares, indicating a growing preference for Bitcoin allocation.

Compared to direct shareholding, UBS's bullish exposure to IBIT options increased 24-fold in the second quarter, surging from approximately 80,000 shares to 1.95 million shares, while its bearish exposure declined by approximately 53%, dropping from about 303,000 shares to around 143,000 shares.

This has shown UBS's clear bullish bias (increasing long positions and reducing short positions), but 13F filings do not disclose strike prices, expiration dates, or actual costs, and the positions may include client activities, market-making, or hedging operations, so they do not necessarily represent purely proprietary directional bets.

Wall Street legend and hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones: End the trend of continuous reduction of IBIT since 2025

Tudor Investment, led by Wall Street legendary hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, also increased its holdings in IBIT during the second quarter of 2026, with a total position of 688,529 shares (valued at $22.9 million) at the end of Q2. This represents an increase of 109,446 shares (approximately $4.45 million) from the 579,083 shares reported in the previous quarter, a 18.9% rise.

Although the increase in holdings represents a relatively small amount of capital, it ends Paul Tudor Jones’s ongoing reduction of IBIT since 2025, potentially indicating an optimistic but cautious outlook on Bitcoin’s future price movement. At its peak in late 2024, Tudor Investment held over 8 million shares of IBIT, valued at approximately $427 million; current holdings are still about 91% lower than that peak.

Harvard University Endowment: Stop Reducing Holdings of Bitcoin Spot ETF

Harvard University’s endowment filing of its 13F report shows that, as of the end of the second quarter, its holdings of the spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT remained unchanged at 3,044,612 shares, with a market value of approximately $101.4 million at the end of Q2.

Harvard University's endowment had reduced its holdings in IBIT for two consecutive quarters, peaking at approximately 6.81 million shares (valued at around $443 million) in Q3 2025, then reducing by 21% in Q4 2025 and another ~43% in Q1 2026, bringing holdings to current levels. Although this quarter did not increase Bitcoin exposure, it ended two consecutive quarters of reductions, which can still be interpreted as an optimistic, watchful stance.

Currently, institutional views on Bitcoin’s future price movement can be broadly divided into two camps: “the bear market has ended” and “the bottom has not yet been reached.”

Bear market ending party

Today, Bitcoin broke through the $70,000 mark, and Wang Chun, co-founder of Bitcoin mining pool F2Pool, cited his own tweet from January 28, 2023, titled “Remembering the Bear Market,” on X, stating, “The bear market is over.”

Compared to Wang Chun’s concise remarks, Matt Cole, CEO of Strive, presents a more thorough argument. He believes Bitcoin is poised for a historic upward movement, as the U.S. Dollar Index has been in a structural downtrend and may now be approaching an even more significant downward phase, making the next 5 to 7 years potentially one of the most favorable macroeconomic environments in Bitcoin’s history. Matt Cole also noted that Bitcoin’s current price is relatively low by historical standards, and Strive is willing to take on risk by continuing to buy Bitcoin at this level.

Standard Chartered is bullish on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end. Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, said that with the U.S. Treasury expanding liquidity support for the long-term Treasury market, Bitcoin could rise to $100,000 before the end of 2026. He noted that Bitcoin’s current key technical resistance is at $65,500; a breakout above this level could signal that the low point of this market cycle has been reached.

10x Research’s latest report also notes that after months of narrow consolidation, Bitcoin has broken out, with the report stating that its preferred strategy this month is to buy call options with a strike price of $70,000. These options were as low as around $300 on August 5, dropped to as low as $30 three days ago, then surged to a high of $1,600, and are currently trading at approximately $1,300.

10x Research also noted that a better trading strategy is a call spread with a September expiration and strike prices of $70,000/$80,000. This structure is more bullish while still maintaining some flexibility.

Bitcoin has not yet reached its bottom.

Even as Bitcoin has broken through $70,000, some cautious institutions believe it has not yet reached its bottom.

CZ stated at the SALT conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the Bitcoin "super cycle" has not yet materialized and that the market is still in a bear phase, adhering to the strict four-year cycle pattern. However, CZ acknowledged that this is currently the most favorable environment for the industry in his 12 years of experience.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost believes that current retail demand for Bitcoin has approached its highest level in the past two years, and historical data shows a clear correlation between rising retail demand and Bitcoin’s local peaks. Therefore, Darkfost suggests this may reflect retail investors’ “impatience,” indicating a need to become more sensitive to Bitcoin’s volatility. Adam from Greeks.live Research also reassured investors who missed this Bitcoin rally, noting that after Bitcoin broke $70,000, implied volatility remains at 32%, with ample seller liquidity and plenty of trading opportunities still available for buyers.

The latest report from cryptocurrency asset management firm VanEck shows that while Bitcoin is currently exhibiting "surrender signals" similar to those seen at the end of past bear markets, the data suggests the market bottom has not yet been fully confirmed. It notes that 8 out of 12 Bitcoin market surrender indicators currently tracked have entered extreme territory, primarily measuring market pressure factors such as Bitcoin price drawdowns, miner profitability, and the proportion of holders operating at a loss.

However, historical performance has not shown that these signals indicate a short-term bottom has formed. VanEck data shows that when historically 8 to 12 indicators are triggered simultaneously, Bitcoin’s average return over the next 90 days is approximately 12.8%, and over 180 days is approximately 32%, both below Bitcoin’s long-term average returns (15.2% over 90 days and 36.3% over 180 days). These signals have shown a relative advantage only within a one-year cycle and therefore cannot guide long-term trading decisions.

Glassnode also believes that Bitcoin’s on-chain structure remains in a “capitulation phase,” with the cost basis of short-term Bitcoin holders having dropped to approximately $68,500, below the real market average of around $75,800. Meanwhile, the current peak unrealized loss is approximately 25%, significantly lower than the over 60% levels seen during capitulation phases in previous cycles, indicating that this market’s loss magnitude is relatively shallower but more widely distributed, potentially requiring more time to fully clear.

Glassnode emphasizes that any current price rebound should be viewed as a local rebound rather than a fundamental shift in market trend.