Informed Traders Dominate Prediction Markets as Retail Users Struggle

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As reported by Cointribune, prediction markets are becoming increasingly competitive as informed traders outperform retail participants. 10x Research found that most users approach these markets like sports bettors, seeking quick wins, while a small group of knowledgeable traders systematically profit by exploiting mispriced optimism and order-flow imbalances. Rising liquidity and retail participation have also led to increased activity from professional trading desks, further widening the gap. Meanwhile, a bug in Polymarket's data caused trading volumes to be double-counted, according to Paradigm researcher Storm Slivkoff. Dune's data shows that only 17% of Polymarket wallets are in profit, highlighting the challenges for less-experienced traders.

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