Indonesia Tightens RKAB Review, Trump Claims Ukraine-Russia Energy Agreement

Review today's market trends and stay on top of market dynamics. Good morning, listeners. Today is Tuesday, September 15, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Rush. Futures Morning Rush — the top choice for millions of futures professionals!

Female Mandarin versionDownload MP3

1. Reuters survey: 86 out of 101 economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16 (in the September 9 survey, 65 out of 93 economists expected rates to remain unchanged in September).

2. The central bank released the financial statistics report for August 2026. Preliminary data shows that as of the end of August 2026, the outstanding balance of total social financing reached 46.48 trillion yuan, representing a year-over-year growth of 7.2%.

3. U.S. President Trump: Ukraine has agreed not to strike Russian energy targets. Russia has also agreed to take the same measures!

4. According to Mysteel, a coal mine in the Lüliang Lishi area has ceased production as of September 12, having completed its annual production quota.

5. SMM message: Henan Yaxin Steel has halted production for maintenance on two 630m³ blast furnaces since September 10, resulting in an average daily reduction of 0.4 million tons of pig iron output. The maintenance is currently scheduled to last two months, with the exact restart date dependent on market conditions.

6. According to SMM, multiple polysilicon facilities may resume production in September, leading to continued output growth. In October, polysilicon production may decrease due to the impact of meetings and the onset of the low-water season.

7. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) stated that mining companies with outstanding receivables or unfulfilled reclamation obligations will not be able to proceed with their RKAB applications.

8. Canadian company E3 Lithium has signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with battery materials manufacturer Epsilon CAM to supply battery-grade lithium carbonate on a long-term basis. The framework aims to deliver up to 5,000 tons per year for five years starting September 1, 2026, from the Clearwater project.

9. According to the USDA's weekly crop progress report released on Tuesday, as of the week ending September 13, the U.S. soybean harvest rate was 6%, above the market expectation of 4%; the good-to-excellent rating was 58%, in line with expectations.

10. According to insiders, Saudi Arabia is seeking to further increase oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, having raised overall exports to nearly 4 million barrels per day in early September.

11.

1. Reuters survey: 86 out of 101 economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16 (in the September 9 survey, 65 out of 93 economists expected rates to remain unchanged in September).

2. The central bank released the financial statistics report for August 2026. Preliminary data shows that as of the end of August 2026, the outstanding balance of total social financing reached 46.48 trillion yuan, representing a year-over-year growth of 7.2%.

3. Central Bank: At the end of August, the balance of broad money (M2) was RMB 356.81 trillion, up 7.5% year-over-year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was RMB 115.77 trillion, up 4.1% year-over-year. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was RMB 14.83 trillion, up 11.2% year-over-year. A net cash injection of RMB 736.4 billion was made in the first eight months.

4. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority has issued a notice updating its list of non-compliant vessels, bringing the total number of vessels on the list to 77.

5. According to Reuters, shipping giant Maersk said on Monday it would resume four additional services through the Suez Canal alongside German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd, as both companies gradually restore use of this shortcut between Asia and Europe.

6. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of September 14, 2026, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (Europe Route) stood at 2908.30 points, up 0.9% compared to the previous period.

7. The Minister of Energy of Oman said: "The Strait of Hormuz will remain open; the current situation may be temporary. The situation should stabilize in the medium term."

8. Goldman Sachs currently expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its September policy meeting, reversing its previous forecast of holding rates steady.

9. On September 14, Vice Minister Xin Guobin, a member of the Party Leadership Group of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, chaired a meeting on industrial economic operations in Beijing with representatives from several provinces to understand the current state of industrial economic activities in various regions, analyze and assess the industrial economic situation, and plan the strategic direction for economic work in 2027.

10. U.S. President Trump: Ukraine has agreed not to target Russian energy facilities. Russia has also agreed to take the same measures! The global rise in diesel prices is primarily due to the Russia-Ukraine war, not Iran.

11. U.S. President Trump: Iran wants to reach an agreement and wants to do so quickly and urgently. I will decide whether we engage with Iran, and we remain open to this possibility.

1. At the close of the Monday night session, domestic futures main contracts saw more gains than losses. SC crude oil rose over 5%, fuel oil increased over 4%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), coal coke, and asphalt rose over 3%, paraxylene, bottle flakes, and short fibers climbed over 2%, and ethylene glycol (EG) rose nearly 2%. On the downside, glass fell nearly 2%, soda ash, 20-number rubber, rapeseed meal, corn, and rubber dropped over 1%, while pulp and starch fell nearly 1%.

2. The main contract for U.S. crude oil closed up 1.84% at $101.89 per barrel; the main contract for Brent crude oil rose 1.79% to $106.48 per barrel.

3. International precious metals futures generally closed lower; COMEX gold futures fell 1.56% to $4,340.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures dropped 2.20% to $63.76 per ounce.

4. All base metals in London ended lower: LME aluminum fell 0.05% to $3,251.5 per ton, LME nickel fell 0.18% to $16,440.0 per ton, LME lead fell 0.63% to $1,880.0 per ton, LME copper fell 1.51% to $14,024.5 per ton, LME zinc fell 1.97% to $3,804.5 per ton, and LME tin fell 2.87% to $51,830.0 per ton.

5. International agricultural futures showed mixed movements: U.S. soybeans rose 0.66%, U.S. corn rose 0.71%, U.S. soybean oil rose 0.62%, U.S. soybean meal rose 1.04%, and U.S. wheat fell 0.45%.

1. According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, at the beginning of September, social inventories of five major steel products in 21 cities amounted to 9.59 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons (-1.2%) from the previous month; an increase of 2.38 million tons (+33.0%) from the beginning of the year; and an increase of 390,000 tons (+4.2%) compared to the same period last year.

2. According to Mysteel, a coal mine in the Lüliang Lishi area ceased production on September 12 after completing its annual production target. The mine has an approved capacity of 10 million tons and primarily produces medium- and high-sulfur lean coal. The timeline for resuming production has not yet been determined, and the shutdown may have a certain impact on lean coal supply in the region.

3. SMM message: Henan Yaxin Steel has halted production for maintenance on two 630m³ blast furnaces since September 10, resulting in an average daily reduction of 0.4 million tons of pig iron output. The maintenance is currently scheduled to last two months, with the exact restart date dependent on market conditions.

4. According to Mysteel, from September 7 to September 13, 2026, the total iron ore arrivals at China’s 47 ports amounted to 28.975 million metric tons, an increase of 1.979 million metric tons环比; the total iron ore arrivals at China’s 45 ports amounted to 27.372 million metric tons, an increase of 1.133 million metric tons环比; and the total iron ore arrivals at the six northern ports amounted to 13.5 million metric tons, a decrease of 2.627 million metric tons环比.

5. According to Mysteel, the total global iron ore shipment for the week of September 7–13, 2026, was 35.171 million tons, an increase of 1.587 million tons week-over-week. The combined shipment from Australia and Brazil totaled 28.422 million tons, up by 1.433 million tons week-over-week.

6. Indonesian coal producer Bayan Resources: Due to the proposed revision of its unit's 2026 mining quota not yet being released, the company has declared force majeure.

7. According to Securities Times, data released by the Shenzhen Real Estate中介 Association shows that last week, Shenzhen recorded 1,395 second-hand property transactions, a 9.4% increase week-over-week and the highest level in four weeks, with 1,272 second-hand residential units transacted, up 7.8% week-over-week, indicating early signs of a strong September.

8. According to data released by Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce, and Services, during the second week of September 2026, comprising 8 working days, Brazil shipped a total of 14.3177 million tons of iron ore, compared to 36.2173 million tons in September last year; the daily average shipment was 1.7897 million tons per day, up from 1.6462 million tons per day in September last year, representing an 8.72% year-over-year increase.

On Monday, the Kremlin stated that global energy market conditions are deteriorating, primarily due to instability in the Middle East; meanwhile, Russia’s diesel export ban is expected to help boost the domestic market.

2. *ST Sanfang (600370.SH) announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Hailun Petrochemical Phase III, has completed maintenance on its 3.2 million tons per year PTA production facility and has resumed operations.

3. The Shanghai Futures Exchange announces that, after review, Mercer International Inc.’s Rosenthal facility’s “Rosenthal” brand has been approved as a deliverable brand for our pulp futures contract. Effective immediately upon the release of this notice, “Rosenthal” brand pulp may be used for delivery against pulp futures contracts.

4. According to the New York Times, two knowledgeable sources revealed that the Trump administration plans to announce on Monday that the United States will no longer restrict pollutants emitted by coal and gas-fired power plants during electricity generation that contribute to global warming.

5. According to Longzhong Information, as of September 14, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the East China main ports amounted to 106,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last Thursday.

6. According to Man Tan Paper Industry, French specialty packaging paper manufacturer Papeteries du Léman has been forced to halt production due to damage to nearby energy infrastructure.

7. According to Longzhong Information, as of September 14, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash producers stood at 1.9062 million tons, a decrease of 24,900 tons from last Thursday, or a 1.29% decline.

8. According to the Associated Press, two regional officials said that a key Saudi oil pipeline attacked last week will be largely shut down for several weeks while damaged sections are repaired.
9. A source familiar with the matter said Saudi Arabia is seeking to further increase oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, having raised overall exports to nearly 4 million barrels per day in early September, with approximately 1 million barrels per day exported via the Strait of Hormuz and the remainder shipped through the Yanbu port on the Red Sea coast.

1. According to SMM, multiple polysilicon facilities are expected to resume production in September, leading to continued output growth. In October, production may decline due to upcoming meetings and the onset of the low-water season. Currently, market activity is extremely limited, with virtually no new orders signed, resulting in a moderate increase in polysilicon inventories. Some participants are trading warehouse receipts.

2. According to SMM, Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) stated that mining companies with outstanding receivables or unfulfilled reclamation obligations will not be able to proceed with their RKAB applications.

3. Xinluo Lithium Battery stated that, due to factors such as consumption taxes, some demand was brought forward, resulting in month-over-month declines in production of ternary materials and batteries in September: ternary material production is expected to decrease by 15%, while lithium iron phosphate production increased by 6%; ternary battery production decreased by 7.36%, lithium iron phosphate battery production increased by 7.12%, and total battery production rose by 5.2%; energy storage battery production increased by 4.01%.

4. According to Mysteel, on September 14, the nationwide social inventory of zinc ingots was 199,200 metric tons, a decrease of 2,600 metric tons from September 10 and a decrease of 5,300 metric tons from September 7.

5. According to Mysteel, a leading polysilicon company’s southwestern facility is gradually reducing production, with full shutdown expected in October, affecting monthly output of 4,000 tons.

6. Canadian company E3 Lithium has signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with battery materials manufacturer Epsilon CAM to supply battery-grade lithium carbonate on a long-term basis. The framework aims to deliver up to 5,000 tons per year for five years starting September 1, 2026, from the Clearwater project.

7. According to data released by Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services, during the second week of September 2026—comprising 8 working days—Brazil shipped a total of 48,000 metric tons of copper ore and copper concentrate, compared to 123,800 metric tons in September last year. The daily average shipment was 6,000 metric tons per day, up from 5,600 metric tons per day in September last year, representing a 6.58% year-over-year increase.

8. According to data released by Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services, during the second week of September 2026—comprising 8 working days—Brazil shipped a total of 158,000 metric tons of bauxite and alumina. This compares to 377,800 metric tons in September last year. The daily average shipment was 19,700 metric tons per day, up from 17,200 metric tons per day in September last year, representing a 14.97% year-over-year increase.

Supply and demand pressures remain unchanged, causing pure glass to drop sharply.

CITIC Futures noted that on September 14, the prices of glass and soda ash fell sharply; according to Wind data, the main contracts for both commodities closed more than 5% lower. The primary reason was that the earlier price increases lacked strong fundamental support. As expectations grew for coal mines in production areas to resume operations and coal prices began to soften, prices quickly retreated. Fundamentally, despite significant price fluctuations on the futures market, real-world supply and demand dynamics have seen limited changes. For glass, demand may marginally recover as the market transitions between peak and off-seasons, combined with potential restocking by downstream buyers ahead of the long holiday. Coal supply recovery remains slow, keeping coal prices elevated, while energy prices such as oil continue to push up the cost base for glass. Although medium- to long-term demand for glass is still expected to decline, and recent restarts of production lines have temporarily increased supply, the futures price’s sharp correction has brought valuations back to a neutral-to-lower range, suggesting short positions may consider taking partial profits. For soda ash, supply and demand fundamentals remain loose. Maintenance at major producers has reduced daily output, but supply is expected to rebound after maintenance ends. Overall demand lacks strong drivers, and despite lower supply, inventories continue to accumulate环比. Synthetic alkali production processes are currently unprofitable, with rising coal prices further increasing costs and adding uncertainty to supply. After the futures market’s sharp decline, it is advisable to avoid aggressively adding short positions; the medium- to long-term outlook remains bearish with a strategy of selling on rallies.

2. Geopolitical tensions spark bullish sentiment, SC crude oil reaches the 900-yuan mark.

According to a research report from China Everbright Futures, on Monday, China's crude oil futures witnessed a historic moment. The main contract, SC2610, opened significantly higher in the early session and continued to rise, reaching a high of over 900 yuan per barrel during trading—the first time since the launch of China’s crude oil futures that the 900 yuan/barrel threshold has been breached. As of press time, the contract was still up around 11%, with a volatility of 13.85% and trading volume exceeding 300,000 lots, reflecting unprecedented market enthusiasm. International oil prices also surged sharply, with WTI crude oil futures nearing $103 per barrel and Brent crude oil rebounding above $106 per barrel.

The trigger for this rally came from a substantial supply-side shock. Additionally, the regional meeting originally scheduled for the 14th in Salalah, a port city in southern Oman, was announced by the Omani Ministry of Foreign Affairs to be postponed on September 13, with a new date to be determined. Iran, Iraq, and other Persian Gulf coastal nations had planned to exchange views at the meeting on safe shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and discuss arrangements for establishing navigational order. The postponement indicates that diplomatic mediation has failed to achieve meaningful progress, and the previously anticipated signal of de-escalation has vanished. Meanwhile, on the morning of the 14th, several loud explosions were reported in the Sirik region of Hormozgan Province, Iran; the nature of the explosions remains unclear. Geopolitical risks have not subsided but are instead further escalating.

Looking ahead, SC crude oil rising above 900 yuan for the first time reflects the convergence of supply gaps and low inventories amid geopolitical tensions. However, signs of net capital outflows have already appeared on the chart. With the U.S.-Iran situation highly uncertain, oil prices are currently driven by news events, and any next move by either side could trigger significant volatility.

1. At 10:00, the National Bureau of Statistics of China releases August data on industrial value added and fixed asset investment;

2. Pending: Malaysia's shipping survey agencies ITS, AmSpec, and SGS release estimated palm oil exports for the first 15 days of September;

3. 20:00, Brazil's September Conab estimates for soybean and corn production and planting area.