Written by Turner Wright
Compiled by Chopper, Foresight News
U.S. Senators, ending a more than month-long district work recess, will reconvene on Monday to consider a long-awaited bill aimed at clarifying regulatory rules for the crypto industry. However, the window for the bill to become law is extremely tight, and it may be delayed until the next Congress, where the political landscape will be entirely different.
Senate Republican Majority Leader John Thune has scheduled a cloture vote on the CLARITY bill for Tuesday. At that time, Republicans will need support from some Democratic senators to reach the 60-vote threshold required to overcome a filibuster.
If the bill fails to secure the supermajority needed to advance, it is unlikely to become law before the new Congress is sworn in in 2027. The outcome of the November midterm elections will determine whether the Democrats retain control of Congress at that time. Senator Cynthia Lummis, one of the bill’s strongest supporters, stated on September 6 that if lawmakers cannot reach consensus and send the bill to the president for signature, the next real opportunity for its passage may not come until 2030. Senator Lummis herself will not seek re-election in 2026.
This midterm election will renew all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 33 seats in the Senate. Event contracts on the prediction market Kalshi indicate that the market believes the Democratic Party has a strong chance of regaining a majority in the House; control of the Senate, however, remains nearly even, with no clear favorite.
After the 2024 election, the Republican Party gained control of the Senate, the House of Representatives, and the presidency, enabling it to advance pro-crypto legislation such as the GENIUS Act. Should the partisan balance in Congress reverse next year, Republicans will only be able to advance related bills under Democratic conditions.
2026 Election: The Money Game of Crypto Political Action Committees
Former Ohio Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, who previously chaired the Senate Banking Committee, lost his seat in the 2024 election after pro-crypto industry political action committees (PACs), such as Fairshake, spent millions on advertising campaigns against him. Brown is now running again for the Senate seat vacated by Vice President Vance.
Fairshake, funded by crypto companies such as Coinbase and Ripple, is a key tool used by the crypto industry to support pro-crypto candidates for Congress. Although many candidates backed by Fairshake’s advertising won their 2026 party primaries, this PAC is not undefeated.
In March of this year, Illinois Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton won her party’s primary for U.S. Senate, despite heavy attack advertising targeting the industry. Cryptocurrency PACs provide financial support to incumbent lawmakers who voted for the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, while challengers critical of crypto face targeted negative advertising.
Massachusetts’ 4th District Democratic candidate, Jason Probst, said during the primary race against incumbent Representative Jake Auchincloss: “Auchincloss voted for the CLARITY Act, which is why the crypto industry has spent heavily to fund his reelection.” A PAC associated with Fairshake ran campaign ads supporting Auchincloss. Probst added, “The massive influx of outside funding from the crypto industry means a handful of oligarchs have disproportionate influence over our representatives and federal policy. This is exactly why we need to remove big money from politics.”
Before 2029: The presidential and regulatory landscape will be difficult to change.
Regardless of whether the Democratic Party wins control of either the House or the Senate, or both, in the mid-term elections in November, the White House will remain under Republican control until January 2029, with the president retaining the power to veto legislation. For example, if the president vetoes a cryptocurrency bill championed by Democrats, both the House and the Senate must each secure more than two-thirds of the votes to override the veto.
In addition, as long as Trump remains in office, the heads of the two major U.S. financial regulators, the SEC and CFTC, will not change. Trump appointed Paul Atkins as SEC Chair and Michael Seelig as CFTC Chair. Both regulators have publicly stated that if Congress fails to advance the CLARITY Act this year, the agencies will issue their own regulatory rules for digital assets.