IEA members agree to accelerate the release of 100 million barrels of oil reserves.

Review today's market trends and stay on top of the latest developments. Good morning, listeners. Today is Friday, October 16, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Rush. Futures Morning Rush — the top choice for millions of futures professionals!

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1. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. PPI annual rate for September came in at 6.3%, the highest level since May 2026 and above the market expectation of 5.3%.

2. Palm oil production in Malaysia for the 2026/27 fiscal year is projected at 18.9 million tons, a 2.6% reduction from the previous estimate.

3. The International Energy Agency stated that member countries have agreed to complete the release of the remaining 100 million barrels of oil reserves from the intervention measures taken in March to stabilize global markets.

4. Negotiations between the two striking unions at Antofagasta Minerals and the Centinela copper mine in Chile made no progress on Thursday.

5. The percentage of drought-affected areas in U.S. soybean regions is 26%, up from 25% last week, an increase of 1 percentage point.

6. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data showing that private exporters reported sales of 3.3 million metric tons of soybeans to China.

1. Ukrainian officials said Ukraine launched a nighttime strike on a Russian oil refinery in response to Russian ballistic missile and drone attacks that violated the Trump energy ceasefire agreement.

2. Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and passage must be coordinated. Previously, Iranian President Pezeshkian said that bombs and missiles cannot force a country to surrender.

3. Deputy Director Zhang Yue of the Futures Regulation Division at the China Securities Regulatory Commission stated that, in the face of new circumstances, the futures market must seize opportunities amid challenges and demonstrate its value by serving the broader picture—deepening and broadening its support for the real economy, innovating and energizing its opening-up efforts, refining and solidifying its market stability mechanisms, further improving the layout of futures and options contracts, and cultivating foundational and strategic products.

4. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. PPI annual rate for September came in at 6.3%, the highest level since May 2026 and above the market expectation of 5.3%; the monthly PPI rate for September was 1.3%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 0.5%. Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that the U.S. retail sales monthly rate for September was 0.8%, exceeding market expectations.

1. The front-month U.S. crude oil contract rose 2.59% to close at $97.55 per barrel; the front-month Brent crude oil contract fell 0.35% to close at $105.69 per barrel.

2. International precious metals futures generally closed higher; COMEX gold futures rose 2.06% to $4,192.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.09% to $57.60 per ounce.

3. Most base metals in London ended lower; LME aluminum closed flat at $2,987.5 per ton, LME tin fell 0.06% to $50,415 per ton, LME lead dropped 0.50% to $1,887 per ton, LME zinc declined 1.21% to $3,673.5 per ton, LME copper fell 1.25% to $14,309 per ton, and LME nickel dropped 1.68% to $15,250 per ton.

4. As of the close at 23:00 on October 15, the majority of domestic futures main contracts declined, with palm oil and benzene falling nearly 2%, and styrene (EB), methanol, fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), ethylene glycol (EG), and plastic dropping over 1%. On the upside, synthetic rubber rose nearly 3%, and 20-number rubber increased over 1%.

1. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in the first ten days of October 2026, key steel enterprises produced 19.39 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.939 million tons, a 3.1% increase环比; 17.78 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.778 million tons, a 1.4% increase环比; and 18.20 million tons of steel products, with an average daily output of 1.820 million tons, a 11.5% decrease环比.

2. According to Mysteel, for the week ending October 15, apparent demand for rebar shifted from decline to increase, production shifted from decline to increase, mill inventories shifted from increase to decline, and social inventories shifted from increase to decline. Rebar production reached 1.7389 million tons, an increase of 0.0362 million tons compared to the previous week, up 2.13%; apparent demand for rebar was 2.2227 million tons, an increase of 0.08269 million tons compared to the previous week, up 59.24%.

3. According to Mysteel, the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 1.608 million tons, an increase of 116,000 tons环比, with raw coal inventories at 4.187 million tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons环比.

4. This week, Mysteel’s Coal and Coke Division surveyed the profit per ton of coke at independent coking plants nationwide, with an average national profit of -52 RMB/ton; the average profit for Shanxi Grade II coke was -41 RMB/ton, Shandong Grade II coke was -10 RMB/ton, Inner Mongolia metallurgical coke was -62 RMB/ton, and Hebei Grade II coke was 13 RMB/ton.

1. According to the Enterprise Singapore (ESG): For the week ending October 14, Singapore's fuel oil inventories decreased by 6.29 million barrels to a nine-week low of 18.043 million barrels. Light distillate inventories rose by 20.46 million barrels to a four-week high of 13.806 million barrels. Middle distillate inventories increased by 10.05 million barrels, nearing a six-month high of 10.377 million barrels.

2. According to the National Development and Reform Commission, since the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices on September 24, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has been complex and volatile; after a brief decline, international crude oil prices have risen significantly again. Based on the changes in international oil prices, no adjustment will be made to the prices of gasoline and diesel this time.

3. According to Longzhong Information, as of October 15, 2026, the total inventory of float glass samples nationwide was 71.793 million standard boxes, down 1.393 million standard boxes环比, or -1.9%环比, and up 11.7%同比. The inventory days equated to 33 days, a decrease of 0.7 days from the previous period.

4. According to Longzhong Information, as of October 15, 2026: This week, the total inventory of domestic soda ash producers amounted to 1.6289 million tons, a decrease of 81,300 tons from Monday, representing a 4.75% decline.

5. The International Energy Agency stated that member countries have agreed to complete the release of the remaining 100 million barrels of oil reserves deployed in March to stabilize global markets. Following its council meeting on Thursday, the IEA said member countries will accelerate the release of the remaining reserves, including the deployment of 20 million barrels of diesel “as soon as possible.”

6. According to the EIA Natural Gas Report: As of the week ending October 9, the total U.S. natural gas inventory stood at 3,567 billion cubic feet, an increase of 6.7 billion cubic feet from the previous week, a decrease of 14.3 billion cubic feet compared to the same period last year (a 3.9% year-over-year decline), and 4.5 billion cubic feet above the five-year average (a 1.3% increase).

7. According to the EIA report: For the week ending October 9, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 195,000 barrels per day to 4.57 million barrels per day; U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 300,000 barrels per day to 13.679 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories, excluding strategic reserves, decreased by 8.557 million barrels to 416 million barrels, a decline of 2.02%.

1. According to Mysteel’s port-based survey, as of this week (October 15), the physical inventory of lithium ore at domestic ports amounted to 347,000 metric tons, an increase of 29,000 metric tons week-over-week. Among this, the inventory at Zhenjiang Port was 222,000 metric tons, up 9,000 metric tons week-over-week, with a significant influx of shipments arriving at Zhangjiagang Port following the holiday.

2. According to SMM, major primary lead smelters in central China have entered their routine equipment maintenance cycle, with maintenance expected to last until November 20. Daily lead ingot production is estimated to be affected by 300–500 tons, primarily impacting the crude smelting stage, followed by the refining stage.

3. According to Antaike, the negotiation window for long-term processing fees for copper concentrate is about to open, during which mines, smelters, and major traders will exchange supply and demand expectations; the baseline expectations for subsequent annual long-term TC negotiations are typically established during this phase. Although capacity at mines such as Grasberg and Kamoa is gradually recovering, combined with new capacity coming online in China and other regions, global copper concentrate production growth is expected to accelerate by 2027, but it will still fall far short of meeting the demand from existing copper smelting capacity.

4. Data released by the Central Bank of Peru shows that in August 2026, Peru exported 242,000 tons of copper, 2,200 tons of tin, 688,000 ounces of gold, 500,000 ounces of refined silver, 119,800 tons of lead, and 87,800 tons of zinc.

5. Negotiations between the two striking unions at Antofagasta Minerals and the Centinela copper mine in Chile made no progress on Thursday.

1. Did the rebound come to a sudden halt? What’s the outlook for coking coal?

China Everbright Futures stated that recent joint efforts by multiple departments to stabilize coal production and ensure supply have clearly emphasized "preemptive planning for energy supply regulation during the winter peak demand period" and "enhancing monitoring and early warning of supply and demand." The high-level policy stance on stabilizing production and supply remains unchanged, and expectations for a marginal increase in domestic coal supply in the fourth quarter persist. However, supply expansion is constrained by safety production thresholds, limiting rapid or substantial increases. From a market perspective, policy aims to curb irrational price spikes in coal, creating a balance between winter storage demand and supply assurance support, resulting in predominantly range-bound price movements. Continuous monitoring of output in major production regions, port and power plant inventories, and cold wave warnings is essential.

2. Precious metals market suffers sharp decline—what’s next?

Xinhu Futures stated that this sharp decline was primarily driven by two negative factors: the higher-than-expected U.S. September CPI inflation data and a decline in market risk appetite. Looking ahead, the inflation data has increased uncertainty surrounding the October Fed meeting; however, considering recent statements from Fed officials and the political sensitivity surrounding the upcoming midterm elections, we maintain our view that the Fed will likely raise rates once in December this year. Currently, silver has retraced to near its previous阶段性 bottom, with relatively limited downside pressures—if the Fed maintains its current interest rate expectations in October, silver prices may still have room for a modest rebound. Over the medium term, we expect silver prices to remain relatively bearish due to the combined pressures of the tightening monetary cycle and weak industrial demand. Particular attention should be paid to the remarks by Fed Chair Powell at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings.