ICE to Launch Cattle and Hog Futures Contracts on December 7

Review today's market trends and stay on top of the latest developments. Good morning, listeners. Today is Wednesday, October 14, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Rush. Futures Morning Rush — the top choice for millions of futures professionals!

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The Yemeni oil company controlled by the Houthi forces stated that the facilities targeted by Saudi Arabia "contained no petroleum materials," and that inventories are stored at multiple secure locations. We assure everyone that supply remains completely stable, with no reason for concern.

2. The National Energy Administration held its third regular energy regulatory meeting of 2026 in Beijing, emphasizing the need to proactively plan for energy supply assurance supervision during the winter peak demand period and strengthen monitoring and early warning of supply and demand.

3. According to Mysteel, since October, the resumption of production at coking coal mines in Shanxi has accelerated, with a significant reduction in the number of shutdown coking coal mines.

4. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, plans to launch cattle and hog futures contracts.

5. Cheng Weidong of the Dalian Commodity Exchange stated that the price correlation between futures and spot for chemical products at DCE has remained stable above 90%, with hedging efficiency exceeding 90%.

6. The salary mediation negotiations between the union and operator BHP at Chile's large Escondida copper mine enter their final day.

7. Are the polysilicon leaders holding a closed-door meeting in Hangzhou on a “price floor”? On the morning of October 13, a representative from GCL Technology confirmed the holding of the aforementioned closed-door meeting. A representative from GCL Group stated regarding the specific prices of polysilicon and modules: “As long as the price does not fall below 43,000 yuan per ton, there will be no loss; otherwise, no one would have set this threshold.”

The Yemeni oil company controlled by the Houthi forces stated that the facilities targeted by Saudi Arabia "contained no petroleum materials," and that inventories are stored at multiple secure locations. We assure everyone that supply remains completely stable, with no reason for concern.

2. According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report: Global real GDP growth is forecasted at 3.1% for 2026, up from the July forecast of 3.0%, due to artificial intelligence investments mitigating energy price shocks in major economies; global economic growth for 2027 is projected at 3.4%, unchanged from the July forecast.

3. Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that Trump poses a threat to the Fed’s independence, but so far he has not succeeded.

1. The front-month U.S. crude oil contract rose 1.12% to close at $94.79 per barrel; the front-month Brent crude oil contract fell 0.34% to close at $106.29 per barrel.

2. International precious metals futures generally closed lower; COMEX gold futures fell 0.15% to $4,184.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.85% to $59.40 per ounce.

3. Most base metals in London ended lower; LME lead rose 1.04% to $1,903.0 per ton, LME copper fell 0.43% to $14,555.5 per ton, LME nickel fell 0.54% to $15,535.0 per ton, LME aluminum fell 0.59% to $3,034.5 per ton, LME zinc fell 1.08% to $3,717.0 per ton, and LME tin fell 3.40% to $51,400.0 per ton.

4. As of the close at 23:00 on October 13, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed movements: benzene and fuel oil rose over 2%, while ethylene glycol (EG), palm oil, styrene (EB), soybean oil, and polypropylene increased more than 1%. On the downside, soda ash, 20-number rubber, and short fiber fell over 1%, while bottle resin, rubber, and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) declined nearly 1%.

1. According to Mysteel satellite data, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil from October 5 to October 11, 2026, amounted to 12.584 million metric tons, an increase of 1.985 million metric tons环比.

2. On October 12, the National Energy Administration held its third regular meeting on energy regulation in 2026 in Beijing, emphasizing the need to proactively plan for energy supply assurance supervision during the winter peak demand period and strengthen monitoring and early warning of supply and demand.

3. SMM message: According to reports, some coking coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production, primarily concentrated in the Lüliang region. However, overall production resumption remains slow due to safety rectification requirements and capacity restrictions. As of October 12, 39 coking coal mines in Changzhi, Taiyuan, Jinzhong, Lüliang, and Linfen cities in Shanxi remained shut down, representing an annual capacity of 41.5 million tons.

4. Liu Andong, Vice President of the China Iron and Steel Industry Association, stated at the Derivatives and Black Industry Forum that it is essential to remain grounded in industry realities, continuously optimize contract and delivery systems, and strengthen the foundation of spot-futures linkage. He expressed hope that DCE will further refine the contract rules for iron ore, coking coal, and coke, making the futures market more aligned with industry needs and ensuring efficient and smooth hedging and physical delivery, thereby continuously creating a favorable environment for real-economy enterprises to confidently and effectively use derivatives tools.

5. According to Mysteel, since October, the resumption of production at coking coal mines in Shanxi has accelerated, with a significant reduction in the number of shutdown coking coal mines. This week’s statistics on coking coal mine production show that, since May 23, a total of 206 mines in Shanxi have experienced shutdowns, with a combined capacity of 278 million tons. As of October 13, 54 mines remain shut down, with a combined capacity of 56.7 million tons.

6. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in early October, social inventories of five major steel products in 21 cities amounted to 9.39 million tons, an increase of 250,000 tons month-over-month (+2.7%), marking a reversal from declining to rising inventories; an increase of 2.18 million tons since the beginning of the year (+30.2%); and a decrease of 70,000 tons compared to the same period last year (-0.2%).

1. According to the OPEC monthly report: OPEC has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 180,000 barrels per day (previously forecast at 380,000 barrels per day); OPEC has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2027 to 2.55 million barrels per day (previously forecast at 2.36 million barrels per day).

2. Cheng Weidong of the Dalian Commodity Exchange stated that the price correlation between spot and futures for chemical products on the DCE has remained stable above 90%, with hedging efficiency exceeding 90%. Over 90% of domestic ethylene glycol and styrene spot trades directly use or reference DCE futures prices for pricing, and more than 1,300 petrochemical enterprises have integrated futures tools into their entire procurement, sales, inventory, and profit management processes.

1. The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) said on Tuesday that global nickel demand and production are both expected to rise in 2027, with global nickel demand projected to increase from 3.85 million tons in 2026 to 4 million tons in 2027; meanwhile, global nickel production is expected to rise from 3.87 million tons in 2026 to 4.07 million tons in 2027.

2. According to the London Metal Exchange (LME) position report, as of the week ending October 9, 2026, investment funds held a net long position of 40,700 lots in LME copper, an increase of 2,153 lots from the previous week; a net long position of 124,900 lots in LME aluminum, a decrease of 5,310 lots from the previous week; a net long position of 40,100 lots in LME zinc, a decrease of 3,909 lots from the previous week; a net long position of 5,058 lots in LME nickel, a decrease of 1,711 lots from the previous week; a net short position of 32,000 lots in LME lead, a decrease of 1,573 lots from the previous week; and a net long position of 2,394 lots in LME tin, an increase of 41 lots from the previous week.

3. On the final day of wage mediation talks between the union and operator BHP at Chile’s large Escondida copper mine, BHP has increased its pay offer. Meanwhile, striking workers at a copper mine owned by Antofagasta have returned to the negotiating table. With copper prices near historic highs, miners are demanding a larger share of mining profits, while mining companies seek to curb rising costs, intensifying labor tensions in Chile, the world’s largest copper producer.

4. According to the Shanghai Securities News, the leading polysilicon manufacturers held a closed-door meeting, establishing a price floor and agreeing on a mutual oversight mechanism—companies unanimously agreed to encourage active reporting of any violations of national regulations against predatory pricing, malicious disruption of market economic rules, or disturbances to industry order. Additionally, the meeting clarified measures regarding production capacity, aiming to implement concrete capacity restrictions and promote market-based adjustment mechanisms to encourage each company to autonomously plan and proactively curb its own production in line with overall market demand.

5. According to SMM, the three major copper mines in Chile are currently facing operational disruptions: the Centinela strike has entered its second week; the main union at BHP’s Escondida remains under government mediation, and if no agreement is reached, a strike risk may emerge on October 14. Codelco’s El Teniente has partially shut down due to a mudslide (resulting in two fatalities).

6. Are the polysilicon leaders holding a closed-door meeting in Hangzhou on “price floor limits”? On the morning of October 13, a representative from GCL Technology confirmed the occurrence of the closed-door meeting. A representative from GCL Group commented on the specific prices for polysilicon and modules: “As long as the price doesn’t fall below 43,000 yuan per ton, we won’t incur losses—otherwise, no one would have set this threshold.”

7. BMI has raised its average 2026 copper price forecast from $12,700 per ton to $13,500 per ton, citing market disruptions caused by tariff-related policies and ongoing constraints in copper supply.

1. Methanol has dropped sharply over two days—has it started a downward trend?

China Everbright Futures noted that the main contract for methanol has dropped over RMB 600/ton over two days, with high methanol prices causing deep losses for downstream consumers; multiple MTO units, including those of Bohua and Lianhong, have shut down or plan to reduce loads, turning expected negative demand feedback into reality. However, port inventories remain at extremely low levels, and short-term import recovery is limited, providing underlying practical support. Pure negative feedback alone is unlikely to trigger a sustained one-sided trend; attention should now focus on the scope of MTO shutdowns, the release of floating storage in the strait, and the pace of domestic plant restarts. The situation between the U.S. and Iran has not yet shown a turning point; in the short term, methanol is expected to trade in a high-range consolidation pattern.

2. How has Apple, which relies on favorable conditions, fared this year?

NanHua Futures stated that China’s apple production in 2025 is expected to be approximately 34.23 million metric tons, a decrease of about 3 million metric tons, or roughly 8%, compared to 2024. The Shandong production region was most severely affected, with a yield reduction of about 16.5%. This decline, combined with poor apple quality, has directly pushed up the price floor for the early stage of the 25/26 season and set the stage for expectations of increased production in the 2026 crop year. The reversal from reduced output in the 25/26 season to anticipated growth in the 26/27 season reveals a fundamental pattern in the apple market: significant yield fluctuations are primarily driven by annual weather variations, an impact that often outweighs structural changes in planting area. Although planting area slightly increased in the 25/26 season, yields declined due to weather disruptions; in the 26/27 season, planting area is likely to decline due to the retirement of old orchards, fluctuating profitability, and policy guidance. However, favorable weather conditions and bagging volumes suggest a steady increase in output. This contrast clearly demonstrates that weather is the “primary determinant” of yield.