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iCapital Forecasts 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield to Reach 4.5% in 2026

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iCapital forecasts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to hit 4.5% in 2026, with risk-on assets likely to face pressure if the yield reaches the upper end of the projected 4.0%-4.5% range. The firm noted the yield could climb further in the second half if deficit concerns intensify, potentially shifting capital toward risk-off assets. The outlook suggests tighter conditions for capital market activity and risk-on assets in the coming years.
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