Quantum computing may be approaching its biggest milestone yet: generating meaningful commercial revenue, according to IBM CEO Arvind Krishna, who said the technology is close to becoming a business rather than simply a long-term research project.
Speaking on CNBC's Mad Money on Thursday, Krishna said he expects the sector to begin making a measurable contribution to IBM's revenue and profit by 2028 or 2029.
"By the end of the 2030s, we are now pretty convinced this is a trillion dollars of value," Krishna said, describing what he sees as the long-term economic potential of quantum computing.
His comments come as competition intensifies among companies developing hardware and software that exploit the principles of quantum mechanics to solve mathematical problems in seconds that would take conventional computers thousands of years.
"A quantum computer can do things better, faster, cheaper, in a way that normal classical computers cannot do at this time," Krishna said.
IBM, Alphabet, IonQ, Rigetti Computing and several startups are racing to build machines capable of solving problems that remain impractical for today's most powerful classical computers.
Unlike AI, which has driven a surge in demand for graphics processors to train and run large language models, quantum computing targets a different class of challenges. Researchers say the technology could accelerate molecular simulations, optimize complex logistics networks, advance materials science and improve cryptography.
Krishna said IBM has already demonstrated some of that potential, using quantum computers to uncover properties of materials that conventional computers had been unable to model. Those insights could eventually contribute to longer-lasting batteries, new materials, fusion energy research and drug discovery.
Growing confidence around commercialization has been matched by rising investment. In May, IBM announced plans for a standalone quantum chip foundry backed by a $1 billion commitment from the U.S. Department of Commerce through the CHIPS incentive program, alongside a matching $1 billion investment from the company. Other developers have also expanded manufacturing capacity and research partnerships as they push toward fault-tolerant quantum computers.
The industry's progress is also drawing attention from the digital asset sector. Several publicly traded bitcoin miners, including MARA Holdings (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT) and CleanSpark (CLSP), have diversified into AI and high-performance computing, leveraging their data centers and power infrastructure for new computing workloads.
Quantum computers won't simply slot into today's AI data centers. They require entirely different hardware and operating environments, meaning the industry will need new facilities and supply chains as the technology matures.
The technology has also drawn attention in the crypto world. Some believe a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could one day crack the encryption that protects Bitcoin wallets and other blockchain networks.
Most experts, however, say that scenario is still a long way off and developers are already working on quantum-resistant cryptography. Many researchers say blockchain networks will have time to upgrade well before quantum machines become powerful enough to pose a real threat.