A Natixis Investment Managers survey found that 95% of Hong Kong respondents wanted to outperform the market, the highest proportion in Asia. The survey put the regional average at 85%. The survey found that Hong Kong investors expected long-term returns of 12.3% above inflation, compared with the regional average of 17.3%. An 18-month rally partly fuelled by the artificial intelligence boom inflated return expectations.
Natixis conducted the survey in August. The survey polled 750 individual investors holding at least US$100,000 in investible assets across Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. The survey put Hong Kong financial advisers' estimate of realistic long-term returns at 8.8%. The survey found that Hong Kong investors' expectations exceeded that estimate by 40%, compared with gaps of 84% in Singapore and 110% in South Korea. Dave Goodsell, executive director at the Natixis Centre for Investor Insight, said at a media briefing on Thursday that Hong Kong's gap was 16% a year earlier.
Charlie Tsai, head of Hong Kong at Natixis, said stronger local equities and an improving property market over the past year likely partly explained the more measured expectations. Tsai said those developments had helped moderate enthusiasm for the AI supercycle. The Hang Seng Index gained about 28% in 2025, recording the index's best annual performance since 2017. However, the Hang Seng Index has fallen more than 8% this year. Benchmark equity indices in South Korea and Taiwan have repeatedly reached record highs, driven by soaring global demand for AI chips.
Hong Kong's broader economic fundamentals have also shown signs of stabilising. Hong Kong's initial public offering market raised a record HK$388 billion (US$49.4 billion) in the first nine months of the year. Residential property prices rose about 7% through August. Goodsell said a market downturn was Hong Kong investors' top concern, while inflation and interest rates ranked highest elsewhere in Asia. US long-term bond yields reached the highest level since 2002 this month. Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said in a weekly blog last week that higher US yields had inevitably dampened recent Hong Kong stock market sentiment.
Mabrouk Chetouane, head of global market strategy at Natixis, said the firm remained positive on risk assets despite the headwinds. Chetouane said Natixis had raised allocations to US equities to the maximum permitted level within the firm's model portfolios. Chetouane cited the start of third-quarter earnings season and continued support from AI. Chetouane described the simultaneous surge in bond yields and equity prices as quite unusual.
Natixis said a recency bias in return expectations appeared at odds with investors' risk tolerance. The survey found that 73% of respondents across Asia described themselves as conservative or moderate investors. The survey found that 76% of respondents across Asia would choose safety over performance if forced to select one. Goodsell said investors extrapolate from market movements and expect rising markets to keep rising.
Hong Kong Investors Seek Market Outperformance Amid AI-Driven Rally
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Summary
Hong Kong investors are chasing gains amid a market rally, with 95% aiming to outperform the market, the highest in Asia. A Natixis survey shows they expect 12.3% long-term returns above inflation, below the regional 17.3% average. Advisers see 8.8% as realistic, yet investor hopes are 40% higher. The Hang Seng Index surged 28% in 2025 but dropped over 8% in 2026. Meanwhile, the crypto market remains a key focus for those seeking alternative returns.
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