This year, Halloween shopping has become more expensive, as higher prices have been passed down to everything from candy bowls to porch pumpkins.
This not only puts pressure on consumers but may also affect companies like Hershey.
According to the National Retail Federation, Americans are expected to spend $13.5 billion on Halloween, up from last year’s record high of $13.1 billion.
Allison Zeller, Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights at NRF, said, "Consumers continue to prioritize Halloween as a spending focus, but they are approaching this season with affordability in mind."
Inflation is spreading across everything from candy to clothing. Pumpkin prices are also higher. According to U.S. Department of Agriculture data, the average retail price of pumpkins this year reached $5.36, up 11% from September 2020. Due to drought, yields in parts of Texas—one of the main pumpkin-producing regions—have declined by approximately 30% to 40%.
Candy and chocolate
Candy remains one of the biggest Halloween expenses this year, and its price increases have outpaced overall food inflation, although the rate of increase has slowed.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for candy and chewing gum rose 7.7% year-over-year in September; the sugar and sweets category increased by 5.5% during the same period. Adverse weather conditions, including the impact of El Niño, have tightened the outlook for sugar supply. Unusually wet weather in Brazil disrupted sugarcane harvesting, while drought and other extreme weather events affected production in other major producing regions.
Food economist Richard Volpe wrote on LinkedIn: “As Halloween rapidly approaches, candy is among the categories priced higher compared to the same period last year.” He added: “In past years at this time, I’m usually overwhelmed with candy. But as I write this, with just a few days left until Halloween, I have only three sad bags of candy on my desk.”
Early market data from Nielsen IQ shows that, as of September 19, Halloween candy sales declined by 11.7% year-over-year. Four weeks later, the decline narrowed to 6.7%, with chocolate down 7.2% and candy products down 5.3%, according to the report.
Chocolate has been the most significantly impacted so far, especially following disruptions in West African cocoa supplies, which have been affected by unfavorable growing conditions in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. The potential emergence of El Niño, along with dry Harmattan winds, could put pressure on the West African cocoa crop for the 2026–2027 season.
David Branch, industry manager at the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, said that commodity markets had previously seen some relief as cocoa prices dropped significantly from historical highs.
But this pullback has not yet translated into cheaper chocolate.
Wells Fargo Agricultural Food Research estimates that chocolate prices this year will be approximately 8% higher than last Halloween, with actual transaction prices rising about 5% to 8% after promotions. Many chocolates on shelves this Halloween are made from cocoa purchased six to twelve months ago.
Blanchet told CNBC: "The worst phase of the cocoa crisis is behind us, but price relief has not yet reached store shelves. For chocolate manufacturers, the main challenge in 2026 is no longer just cocoa supply, but a timing mismatch between falling futures prices, high-cost inventories, retailer negotiations, and consumer price sensitivity."
According to NIQ data, over the nine weeks ending October 17, Halloween chocolate sales declined by 7.2% year-over-year, with milk chocolate contributing to the overall drop.
NIQ estimates that Halloween chocolate sales decreased by $33.1 million compared to last year, with milk chocolate sales dropping by $34.4 million. Meanwhile, dark chocolate sales increased by $2.3 million. Overall, Halloween candy, gum, and mint sales declined by 6.7%.
To boost sales, retailers are offering discounts—Walmart and Target are both running limited-time promotions and significant discounts on items ranging from candy to Halloween costumes.
Meanwhile, candy consumers appear to be shifting toward smaller packages. According to NIQ data, candy in packages of 9 ounces or less increased by 24% in dollar sales and by 14% in unit sales, while all larger package sizes declined.
Wells Fargo expects consumers to increasingly prefer value-sized products and alternatives with less cocoa, including gummies, sour candies, wafers, and caramels.
Blanch said: "Consumers will still buy candy, but their shopping baskets are more likely to contain less chocolate, more value-sized products, and a higher proportion of gummies, sour candies, wafers, caramels, and other low-cocoa alternatives."
On Friday, Hershey's stock rose as consumers shifted away from AI stocks toward more stable consumer staples. However, analysts believe the candy maker still faces challenges.
The company reported its third-quarter results on Thursday and lowered its 2026 organic sales growth forecast from 3% to 3.5% to 3%. Jefferies analyst Scott Marks said this implies that fourth-quarter organic growth will be “essentially flat.”
In his research report, he stated that Hershey's commentary was "more cautious on incremental growth," noting that "consumer and cost pressures" are weighing on the short-term outlook.
Kirk Tanner, CEO of Hershey, told analysts on the earnings call: “We are focusing on convenience stores, as you’ll see consumers under pressure placing greater emphasis on value, and we’re driving pricing through customized promotions rather than broad price reductions.”
Max lowered the stock’s price target to $170, joining other firms such as DA Davidson, BNP Paribas, Bernstein, and Deutsche Bank in their downward revisions. According to FactSet data, the consensus EPS estimate for 2027 has been reduced by 3.7% to $9.49.
Alex Harring of CNBC also contributed to this report.