The debate over when Bitcoin’s bear market will end is largely split between two views. One camp still holds on to the traditional four-year cycle, while the other believes that the bottom may already be in.
Grayscale, for one, favors the latter.
Macro Over Market Cycles
The supporters of the four-year cycle theory see Bitcoin halving events as the main driver of price movements and expect the current downturn to follow the same pattern as previous bear markets. Historically, the crypto asset has reached its bottom around one year after a cyclical peak and roughly two and a half years after a halving event, with cumulative declines averaging about 80%.
Based on that framework, Bitcoin’s price could still fall further and reach a bottom in September or October. Grayscale, however, said it subscribes to an alternative view that BTC has matured as an asset and is now increasingly driven by broader macroeconomic forces, similar to other major asset classes.
The firm noted that previous bear markets have coincided with periods of slowing economic growth and rising real interest rates, and added that this year’s downturn has unfolded alongside shifting expectations for US Federal Reserve policy and higher real interest rates.
Under this macro-driven framework, Grayscale said the asset’s price could find its bottom when those broader economic conditions begin to improve. The firm even added that if the Federal Reserve refrains from further rate hikes and economic growth remains resilient, BTC’s price may have already reached its low, making a further decline unnecessary despite expectations under the four-year cycle model.
Grayscale is not the only one arguing that the cryptocurrency could be approaching a turning point.
More Analysts Back Early Bottom Thesis
Crypto trader Killa also said Bitcoin’s market structure suggests the bottom may already be in, although he remains “50/50” because of the cycle’s timing. The trader explained that BTC has now “swept the dead cat base low” and completed the same five-wave corrective structure seen throughout previous bear markets. However, earlier bear markets took roughly 365 days to reach their final trough, whereas the current cycle would have bottomed in around 260 days.
Despite this, Killa said the “mistake is assuming” cycle lengths never change and believes Bitcoin is more likely to form higher lows than make significant new lows.
Earlier this week, crypto analyst Ali Martinez said the monthly chart is displaying the same combination of technical signals seen near the end of the 2015, 2019, and 2022 bear markets. While Martinez acknowledged that on-chain metrics such as MVRV and CVDD still leave room for a decline toward the $40,000-$50,000 range, he observed the current technical setup has historically identified a dominant accumulation zone with a favorable risk-to-reward profile for spot BTC buyers.
A similar argument was made by crypto analyst Doctor Profit, who warned that investors waiting for a traditional four-year cycle bottom in September or October could end up missing the market’s next move. While Bitcoin could still revisit the $54,000 area, the analyst said he does not expect a drop below $50,000 and believes gradual accumulation already offers an attractive risk-reward profile.
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