BlockBeats news, on July 23, Grayscale Research Head Zach Pandl published a post stating that the market currently holds two main views on when the Bitcoin bear market will end: one follows the "four-year cycle," and the other treats Bitcoin as a mature asset driven by macroeconomic factors.
The four-year cycle theory holds that the halving event remains the core driver of Bitcoin’s price cycles. Historically, Bitcoin typically reaches its bottom approximately one year after the cycle peak and about 2.5 years after the halving, with an average cumulative drawdown of around 80%. Following this pattern, Bitcoin may still decline further and form a bottom in September or October.
Another perspective holds that Bitcoin’s price will, in the future, be more influenced by economic growth, real interest rates, and changes in Federal Reserve policy, much like other major assets. Past Bitcoin bear markets have typically coincided with slowing economic growth or rising real interest rates, and this downturn is occurring against the backdrop of increasing expectations for rate hikes and rising real interest rates.
Pandl stated that they place greater emphasis on macro-driven perspectives. If the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates and economic growth remains stable, Bitcoin's price may have already hit its bottom.