- Grayscale named the key factor that will determine bitcoin’s next move.
- According to analysts, it comes down to the Fed’s rate policy.
- The company also says a final bottom could form in September or October.
Grayscale analysts said the current bitcoin bear market may already be nearing its end if the US Fed refrains from further rate hikes and the economy remains resilient.
In a new report, Zach Pandl, head of research at the firm, explained why the traditional four-year cycle theory is increasingly failing to describe the behavior of the first cryptocurrency. According to him, two approaches to assessing bitcoin’s outlook currently dominate among market participants.
Four-Year Cycle or Macroeconomics?
The first concept is based on historical halving cycles. Under this framework, previous bear markets ended roughly a year after the market peak, or 2.5 years after the halving, with the average peak-to-trough drawdown at around 80%.
If this pattern repeats, Grayscale believes the market may form a final bottom only in September or October 2026.
However, the company leans more toward the other view.
“We subscribe to the latter view. If the Fed forgoes rate hikes and economic growth holds up well, Bitcoin’s price may already have bottomed,” Pandl noted.
Grayscale believes bitcoin is gradually becoming a mature macro asset, whose value is increasingly driven by the pace of economic growth and the level of real interest rates, similar to other major asset classes.
Grayscale’s Conclusions Align With Other Analysts’ Assessments
Grayscale’s stance echoes a number of recent crypto market studies.
In particular, CryptoQuant analysts previously reported one of the fastest recoveries in bitcoin demand this year. The main driver was futures market traders, although spot demand remains relatively weak for now.
Another CryptoQuant study also indicates that bitcoin is entering the final phase of bottom formation. According to the firm, coins are currently being redistributed from short-term holders to long-term investors, while the average entry price for new buyers is gradually declining.
In addition, Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, previously said that the large-scale wave of movement of “old” bitcoins, which lasted in 2024–2025, has practically ended. In his view, this reduces potential sell-side pressure on the market.
Despite the positive signals, analysts emphasize that the market is still under pressure.
According to CryptoQuant, only 13.5% of short-term bitcoin holders are currently in profit, while 86.5% are holding coins at a loss. Meanwhile, net outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs in 2026 reached approximately 120,000 BTC, which remains one of the main factors holding back the market’s recovery.
Separately, Grayscale commented on Strategy’s recent sale of bitcoins worth approximately $216 million. In the company’s view, this move is not a negative signal, but rather could strengthen investor confidence in Strategy’s financing model and help form a more resilient market bottom.
Сообщение Grayscale Assessed Odds of Bitcoin Bear Market Ending and Explained What Will Be Decisive появились сначала на INCRYPTED.