PPP Predictive Market Tool monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event “Which AI lab will rank second on the Arena.ai math leaderboard by end of August?”, the probability of Google AI lab ranking second is currently at 40%, up 12% in 24 hours, while the probability of Alibaba AI lab ranking second is currently at 56%, down 6% in 24 hours.
This market will settle based on the company ranked second in Lab Rank on the "Leaderboard" page after filtering for "Labs" on Arena.ai's Text Arena (Math) leaderboard as of 12:00 PM Eastern Time on August 31, 2026.
The specific settlement basis is the "Lab Rank" column in the Arena.ai "Text Arena | Math" leaderboard. During verification, disable Style Control, set Adjustments to None, and filter for "Labs".
AI companies are first ordered by their Lab Rank at the time of inspection. If the Lab Rank results are ambiguous or unavailable, they are ordered by the highest-ranked AI model of each company in the "Models" view of the leaderboard.
If two or more models are tied in ranking, they are ordered by their Arena Score, including the exact, unrounded values from the leaderboard data. If they are still identical, the final tiebreaker is the alphabetical order of the AI labs/companies listed in this market. For example, when Google and SpaceXAI have identical rankings and Arena Scores, Google ranks above SpaceXAI.
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