Goldman Turns Cautiously Bullish on Crypto Stocks, Backs Coinbase & Robinhood as BTC Surges

Goldman Sachs is turning cautiously bullish on crypto stocks as Bitcoin’s latest surge lifts the market — even as trading activity remains subdued. Quick take - Bitcoin jumped about 26% over the week, topping an intraday high near $81,255 before settling around $79,000, helping the total crypto market cap recover roughly 21% to about $2.8 trillion. - Despite the price rebound, trading volumes have been weak: Goldman says volumes fell 30% in July and another 21% in August, and overall trading activity is down roughly 75% from its peak. - The bank kept buy ratings on Coinbase and Robinhood and raised price targets: Coinbase to $196 (from $173) and Robinhood to $124. Both stocks have risen alongside Bitcoin — Coinbase up ~21% and Robinhood ~12% over the past week. Why Goldman is more positive - Goldman’s latest Americas Brokerage and Crypto Industry note (circulated on X) argues that if market cap holds near current levels, rising token prices could pull retail and institutional flows back into exchanges, reviving trading revenue. - The bank points to three structural positives for H2 2026: firmer token prices, clearer US regulatory steps, and new non-spot revenue products (tokenized stocks, prediction markets, perpetual futures, options strategies) that can diversify exchange income when spot volumes are weak. - Analyst James Yaro led the upgrades and maintained conviction that product expansion can offset spot trading declines. Products and business moves to watch - Coinbase has been pushing “everything exchange” features — event contracts and time-based prediction markets — and has grown its derivatives business. Its prediction-market arm reportedly reached $100 million in annualized revenue within two months of launch, driven largely by sports contracts (some of which face state-level regulatory scrutiny). - Robinhood is building out prediction markets and tokenized securities and in July launched Robinhood Chain, an Ethereum layer-2 for tokenized stocks and assets that can trade outside U.S. market hours (though tokenized instruments may lack shareholder rights). - Goldman is also expanding its crypto asset exposure inside asset management: it disclosed about $86.5 million across five spot XRP ETFs in its Q2 Form 13F (after earlier reducing XRP and Solana ETF positions in Q1). Note: Form 13F filings show end-of-quarter holdings and don’t capture all trading activity or intentions. - Goldman agreed in August to acquire Neos Investments for up to $2.25 billion (subject to regulatory approval). Neos manages >$30 billion across 19 options-based income ETFs, including three products that use options strategies for exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum — a deal expected to close in Q1 2027 if approved. Regulation: still the headline risk — but moving forward - Regulatory uncertainty remains the top institutional hurdle: Goldman’s survey found 35% of respondents cited unclear rules as the biggest barrier to entry, while 32% said regulatory clarity would be the main catalyst for adoption. - Washington is taking steps: the SEC proposed a “Regulation Crypto Assets” framework covering certain digital-asset investment contracts. The proposal would include disclosure rules, a conditional safe harbor, and exemptions that let qualifying startups raise ~$5 million over four years or up to $75 million in a rolling 12 months. A 60-day comment period will follow the proposal’s publication. - Political momentum has also increased: the CLARITY Act, designed to clarify which digital assets fall under SEC vs. CFTC jurisdiction, has renewed attention in Congress. A procedural Senate vote was scheduled for Sept. 15. Goldman CEO David Solomon has signaled support for federal market-structure legislation even amid industry disagreements on stablecoin rules. What moved the market this week - The rally in risk assets and crypto was partly driven by the US Treasury’s decision to double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks, which helped push yields lower. That, along with renewed regulatory momentum and short-term spikes in trading volume (up nearly 75% over the latest 24-hour window), boosted investor appetite for regulated exposure to the recovery — including Coinbase and Robinhood. Watchlist - Whether trading volumes rebound if market cap holds near $2.8 trillion. - Regulatory developments around the SEC framework and the CLARITY Act. - Goldman’s Neos acquisition approval and how exchanges monetize non-spot products. - US economic data (notably the upcoming personal consumption expenditures inflation report) that could influence yields, risk appetite and crypto asset prices. Bottom line Goldman Sachs isn’t abandoning caution — volumes remain a meaningful concern — but the bank has shifted to a more constructive stance for H2 2026, backing select crypto-linked equities and expanding its own crypto exposures as prices and regulatory clarity create opportunities.