Goldman Sachs upgrades SpaceX outlook as Q2 earnings and AI revenue exceed forecasts

According to Cowen Research, SpaceX’s first earnings report after its IPO showed Q2 revenue exceeding Goldman Sachs’ expectations by approximately 17%, and GAAP operating profit surpassing estimates by about 92%. AI business revenue for the quarter reached $7.67 billion, significantly exceeding Goldman Sachs’ forecast of $5.6 billion; Goldman Sachs subsequently raised its 2026 AI revenue forecast by 49% to $23.3 billion. Starlink broadband subscriber numbers exceeded expectations, with quarterly ARPU remaining flat quarter-over-quarter; management expects to achieve an annual revenue run rate of $100 billion by December. The 14th Starship launch is expected to occur within the next month, potentially marking its first orbital attempt. Goldman Sachs raised its price target from $205 to $220, maintaining a Buy rating; the current stock price of $125 implies approximately 76% upside potential. Goldman Sachs believes SpaceX is simultaneously unlocking three trillion-dollar markets: space launch, satellite connectivity, and AI computing power. While the upcoming expiration of the lock-up period may cause short-term stock volatility, the medium- to long-term risk-reward profile remains attractive. Goldman Sachs forecasts a free cash flow deficit of $26.3 billion for the full year 2026, with capital expenditures remaining elevated.