Goldman Sachs upgrades earnings outlook for brokerage and crypto firms amid 34% Q3 crypto market cap surge

Written by: Rita

The cryptocurrency market's market capitalization has risen 34% since the beginning of Q3, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its earnings forecasts and price targets for brokerages and crypto-related companies. On September 8, Goldman Sachs released its Americas Brokerage and Crypto Industry report, updating its quarterly-to-date data to raise the average Q3 revenue forecast for the covered group by 10%, increase the median 2026 EPS forecast by 1%, and raise the median target P/E multiple by 3.0x. The median total return expectation for the group is now +3%. Although trading volumes remain below last quarter’s levels, the upward revision in forecasts is primarily driven by increased revenue from custody, staking, and stablecoins resulting from market capitalization revaluation.

The rise in cryptocurrency market capitalization has a multidimensional impact on the revenues of brokerages and crypto companies. Beyond direct digital asset gains and losses, custody and staking revenues are tied to market capitalization, while stablecoin revenues are linked to the market capitalization of stablecoins. Even if trading volumes have not fully recovered, the increase in market capitalization alone can drive upward revisions to revenue forecasts.

Goldman Sachs updated its crypto data for the third quarter to date in its report. Crypto market capitalization rose 34%, end-of-period USDC balances increased 1% quarter-over-quarter, while average balances declined 5%. Trading volume rebounded 16% quarter-over-quarter in August, but industry-wide average trading volume for the third quarter to date remains down 8% quarter-over-quarter. Goldman Sachs accordingly adjusted revenue forecasts for multiple companies, raising the average Q3 revenue expectation for its coverage group by 10%.

Specific adjustments include: increasing staking and custody income to reflect higher cryptocurrency market capitalization; increasing stablecoin income to reflect higher stablecoin market capitalization; increasing digital asset gains and losses to reflect profits from rising market values; and slightly increasing volume forecasts due to slightly stronger-than-expected industry and company-specific trading volumes.

Looking at individual stocks, COIN's third-quarter platform assets increased by 7% from $269 billion to $288 billion. Trading volume rose by 9% from $127 billion to $138.5 billion.

BTGO's platform assets have been upgraded from $6.2 billion to $6.6 billion, a 5% increase. Trading volume has been upgraded from $4.1 billion to $4.5 billion, a 10% increase.

CRCL's platform assets were revised up from $27.3 billion to $27.6 billion, an increase of 1%. Trading volume was revised down from $900 million to $800 million, a decrease of 9%.

Etor's platform assets remained unchanged at $19.1 billion, while trading volume increased by 39% from $2.7 billion to $3.7 billion.

GEMI's platform assets were adjusted downward from $100 million to $90 million, a 7% decrease. Trading volume was adjusted upward from $270 million to $370 million, a 2% increase.

GLXY's platform assets increased by 7% from $9.1 billion to $9.5 billion. Trading volume increased by 2% from $790 million to $800 million.

Goldman Sachs stated that these adjustments reflect the increase in the market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market and stablecoins, as well as marginal improvements in trading volume.

Despite a significant increase in market capitalization, trading volumes remain low. Since the third quarter, industry-wide average trading volumes have declined by 8% quarter-over-quarter, and market activity has not yet fully recovered. Trading volumes rebounded by 16% month-over-month in August, indicating signs of marginal improvement.

The weakness in trading volume contrasts with the rise in market capitalization, which has been primarily driven by macroeconomic conditions and the rebound in cryptocurrency prices. Trading volume, however, remains constrained by retail participation and market sentiment. Goldman Sachs slightly raised its volume forecast due to slightly stronger-than-expected industry- and company-specific activity, but maintains an overall cautious stance.

From the perspective of revenue structure, trading volume is critical for brokers and crypto companies. For platforms whose primary revenue source is trading fees, a decline in trading volume directly impacts income. For companies with custody, staking, and stablecoin businesses, an increase in market capitalization can partially offset the effects of lower trading volume. Goldman Sachs’ upward revision is based on this logic.

Goldman Sachs raised the median target P/E multiple for its coverage group from 29.5x to 32.5x, an increase of 3.0x, to reflect higher market multiples. The median 2026 EPS estimate was raised by 1%, and the median total return expectation is +3%.

The target prices for individual stocks have been adjusted as follows:

The target price for COIN has been raised from $196 to $219, a 12% increase, with a Buy rating maintained.

ETOR raised from $32 to $36, a 13% increase, with a Neutral rating maintained.

GLXY has been raised from $25 to $28, a 12% increase, with a neutral rating maintained.

BTGO raised from $6.50 to $7.25, a 12% increase, with a Neutral rating maintained.

CRCL has been raised from $81 to $92, a 14% increase, with a Neutral rating maintained.

GEMI has been raised from $3.50 to $4.00, a 14% increase, with a Hold rating maintained.

GLXY’s target price is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation. The digital assets segment is valued at 24.0x adjusted EPS for Q5–Q8, up from the previous 23.0x. The data center segment is valued at 15.5x adjusted EBITDA for Q5–Q8, up from the previous 14.5x. The enterprise segment is valued at 1.0x PB for Q5, unchanged. All three adjustments reflect higher market multiples.

Goldman Sachs currently expects the median total return for broker-dealers and crypto stocks to be +3%. This expectation is based on updated earnings forecasts and target price-to-earnings ratios. Goldman Sachs believes that modest increases in cryptocurrency market capitalization and marginal improvements in trading volume will drive moderate upward pressure on stock prices. However, trading volume remains below last quarter’s levels, and ongoing regulatory risks continue to limit upside potential.

Goldman Sachs recommends that investors focus on companies with diversified revenue streams, such as platforms where custody, staking, and stablecoin businesses make up a significant portion of their income. These companies are better positioned to withstand fluctuations in trading volume and benefit from market capitalization growth. For companies primarily reliant on trading fees, a recovery in trading volume remains a key variable.

Disclaimer

This article is a compilation and interpretation by Chaoxiang Research of a third-party brokerage research report (Goldman Sachs, September 8, 2026), combined with publicly available market information. The ratings, price targets, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited herein reflect the views of the brokerage’s analysts and represent the position of their respective institution, not the views of Chaoxiang Research, nor do they constitute any investment advice.

The market carries risks; make decisions independently. This article should not be used as a basis for buying or selling any securities.