Written by: Rita
Memory prices continued to rise in the third quarter, but differences emerged among categories.
On August 31, Goldman Sachs released its memory price tracking report. TrendForce raised its 3Q26 PC DRAM price forecast to 18%-23%, maintained the server DRAM growth outlook at 13%-18%, lowered the mobile DRAM forecast to 8%-13%, and projected a 20% increase for NAND, which aligns closely with Goldman Sachs’ expectations. The common rationale behind price increases across all categories is that suppliers continue to shift capacity toward server DRAM and HBM, reducing supply for other segments. Goldman Sachs maintains buy ratings on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
PC DRAM prices are expected to rise, with DDR5 trading at a 6% discount.
TrendForce raised its forecast for PC DRAM price increases in Q3 26 from 15% to 20% to 18% to 23%, slightly above Goldman Sachs' prediction of a 17% month-over-month increase. August spot market data showed DDR4 8GB and DDR5 8GB prices rose to $142 and $133, respectively. The discount of DDR5 relative to DDR4 remained at 6%, unchanged from July.
The increase in PC DRAM reflects the resilience of downstream demand. Although growth in the PC end-market remains moderate, demand from AI PCs for higher memory capacity is driving structural upgrades, with average memory capacity per unit continuing to rise. Goldman Sachs expects this trend to continue into the fourth quarter.
Server DRAM prices remain firm, with DDR5 premiums widening.
Server DRAM was the most price-resilient category in the third quarter. TrendForce maintains its forecast of a 13% to 18% quarter-over-quarter increase, consistent with Goldman Sachs’ prediction of 18%.
In August, the spot market confirmed this trend: DDR4 64GB module prices remained flat at $1,295, while DDR5 64GB module prices rose 1% to $1,500, increasing the premium of DDR5 over DDR4 from 15% in July to 16%.
The demand from AI servers for high bandwidth and large-capacity memory continues to support DDR5 pricing. Ongoing capacity allocation to HBM is consuming DRAM wafer production capacity, and the tight supply situation for server DDR5 is unlikely to ease in the short term.
Mobile DRAM demand is expected to be lowered, with short-term inventory pressure emerging.
Mobile DRAM was the only category with a downward revision in expectations for the third quarter. TrendForce has lowered its price increase forecast for mobile DRAM in 3Q26 to 8%–13%, slightly below Goldman Sachs’ forecast of a 14% quarter-over-quarter growth. TrendForce expects further slowing in 4Q26 to 0%–5%.
The weakening demand stems from high customer inventory levels. After stockpiling over the past several quarters, smartphone manufacturers' DRAM inventories have risen to elevated levels, reducing short-term purchasing momentum. TrendForce maintains a positive outlook for 2027 prices, as suppliers will continue prioritizing capacity allocation toward server DRAM and HBM, limiting supply growth for mobile DRAM.
Goldman Sachs believes that the short-term weakness in mobile DRAM is a matter of timing, not a reversal of the trend. Prices will still be strongly supported by supply-side factors in 2027.
NAND demand is largely in line with expectations, with mobile devices remaining the primary source of demand.
Mobile NAND prices are expected to rise 20% quarter-over-quarter in Q3, consistent with Goldman Sachs’ forecast of a 15% to 20% overall NAND price increase. The contract price for eMMC/UFS 256GB in Q3 2026 has already increased by approximately 20%.
The supply and demand dynamics of NAND are similar to those of DRAM, with suppliers allocating capacity toward higher-value products, limiting the growth of mobile NAND supply. NAND has greater demand elasticity, meaning fluctuations in the consumer electronics market will directly impact price trends. Goldman Sachs expects the pace of NAND price increases to moderate in the fourth quarter.
The fundamental drivers behind memory price increases remain intact, with suppliers' capacity allocation strategies being the decisive factor. Short-term inventory adjustments in mobile DRAM are merely a matter of timing and do not indicate a reversal in demand trends. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, as global leaders in memory, remain the primary beneficiaries of this trend.
Disclaimer
This article is a compilation and interpretation by Chaoxiang Research of a third-party brokerage research report (Goldman Sachs, August 31, 2026), combined with publicly available market information. The ratings, price targets, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited herein reflect the views of the brokerage's analysts and represent the position of their respective institution only; they do not reflect the views of Chaoxiang Research nor constitute any investment advice.
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