Goldman Sachs forecasts gold could reach $5,400 by the end of 2026, supported by Fed rate cuts and central bank buying.
Goldman Sachs stated it maintains its target of $5,400 per ounce for gold by the end of 2026. The bank emphasized that this forecast is underpinned by fundamental dynamics such as Fed interest rate cuts, central bank purchases, and the normalization of market positioning.
Underlying Withdrawal: War Impact and Inflationary Pressure
According to the report prepared by analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven, the primary reason for gold's recent decline of approximately 15% to levels around $4,580 is geopolitical developments. The conflicts in the Middle East have been noted to increase the risk of disruptions in energy supply, elevate inflation expectations, and prevent markets from fully pricing in potential Fed rate cuts. Although short-term pressures remain, the long-term upward narrative for gold is considered intact.
"Fair Value" at $4,550
According to Goldman Sachs, under current macro conditions, gold's fair value is approximately $4,550. Key details from the report:
- The high demand for options at the start of the year made prices vulnerable to volatility.
- The previous $4,700 level is technically viewed as a strong support.
- Claims that gold has lost its “safe haven” property are being rejected
According to analysts, during supply-driven inflation periods, gold may underperform in the short term; this is because rising interest rates increase gold’s opportunity cost.
3 Primary Catalysts for the $5,400 Target
According to Goldman Sachs' base case, three key factors will support the upward movement:
- Balancing speculative positions: +$195
- Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points: +$120
- Central banks' monthly purchase of ~60 tons: +$535
The combination of these factors is seen as the main structure that could push the price to $5,400 by the end of 2026.
Central Banks Continue to Accumulate Gold
The report particularly highlights reserve policies in emerging markets: Central banks' gold purchases have become a structural trend in recent years. Monthly average purchases of 60 tons are expected by 2026. Additionally, gold's share in reserves remains low in Gulf countries. This indicates that the long-term demand base for gold remains strong.
Risk Scenario: $3,800
The report also clearly outlined downward risks, particularly:
- Prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz
- Liquidity squeeze in global markets
- Deep sell-offs in stock markets
Warnings were issued that gold prices could retreat to $3,800 if such developments occur.
Upper Scenario: $6,100
In a positive scenario (increasing geopolitical risks, accelerated outflows from Western assets, and investors allocating more of their portfolios to gold), prices could rise to the $5,700–$6,100 range.
Goldman Sachs’ Gold Forecast: $5,400 Target Maintained first appeared on Bitcoin News, Altcoin, and Crypto News.