According to Zhitong Financial News, Apple (AAPL.US) will announce its financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 in the morning of November 3, Beijing Time. Goldman Sachs has released its latest forward-looking research report, expecting Apple’s Q4 revenue to
$113.598 billion, up 11% year-over-year and approximately $155 million above the FactSet consensus, at the upper end of the company’s 9%–11% guidance; expected EPS of $2.01
Dollar, above the consensus of $1.99—revenue roughly in line, profits slightly exceeded expectations, which Goldman Sachs characterized for this quarter. Goldman Sachs maintains its "Buy" rating on Apple, raising its 12-month price target from $360 to
390 USD.
Goldman Sachs forecast for business performance
First, iPhone revenue is expected to reach $56.561 billion, representing a year-over-year increase.
15%, in line with consensus and management’s guidance of “mid-teens,” driven by “lower volume, higher price”—shipment volume decreased 4% year-over-year (in line with IDC estimates), while average selling price increased year-over-year.
20%. Secondly, service revenue is expected to increase by 10% year-over-year, in line with consensus and company guidance; Apple previously guided for Q4 service growth of 9.5%, which implies a deduction of approximately 2.5 percentage points from the +12% growth in the June quarter.
A headwind from sequential exchange rate movements. Third, gross margin is expected at 47.8%, above the consensus of 47.5% and near the midpoint of the company’s guidance range of 47%–48% (excluding tariff refunds, the range is 46%–47%); operating expenses
$19.375 billion, within the guidance range of $19.1 billion to $19.4 billion.
Note that Goldman Sachs is more conservative for the next quarter: EPS of $2.88, revenue of $151.2 billion, and gross margin
46.8%, all below consensus; the company is expected to provide a revenue guidance of low to mid-single-digit year-over-year growth, while Goldman Sachs' own estimate is +5%.
iPhone: Price increases to fill the gap, but only benefited from part of this quarter.
iPhone shipments declined 4% year-over-year due to three factors: the iPhone 18 release cycle was split, and the absence of a base model resulted in smaller channel inventory this quarter compared to last year’s iPhone 17.
Full range; memory and component supply constraints across the entire industry; overall price increases in smartphones have suppressed end-demand. Partially offset by continued demand for the iPhone 17 and the iPhone 18 Pro
offset by the strong launch of the series (particularly in China and India).
Comparing with the industry highlights Apple’s relative resilience: Counterpoint estimates a 20% year-over-year decline in global smartphone shipments in Q3 26, while IDC estimates a -22% decline; and IDC
Apple's shipments are estimated to have declined only 4% to 57.3 million units, with its market share rising from 18.2% a year ago to 22.4%.
Average prices rose approximately 20% year-over-year, driven by three factors: demand concentrated on the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max (with the base model absent), and price increases of $100 for both the Pro and Pro Max models.
Dollars and all models available in the U.S. (iPhone 16, 17e, 17, and iPhone Air) have increased by $100. However, Goldman Sachs also highlighted a timing discrepancy—Apple in F4Q26
You are already incurring higher memory costs but can only realize a portion of the quarterly price increase gains, creating short-term gross margin pressure. The full benefit of the price increase will not be realized until the December quarter.
Lead times: Pro slightly soft, Pro Max holding steady, Duo first-week wait time approximately 100 days.
Goldman Sachs provided a set of muted figures using its own Apple delivery tracker: over the first 42 days after pre-orders opened, the global average delivery time for the iPhone 18 Pro series was 24 days, lower than that of the iPhone 17.
The Pro series had a同期 of 25 days; and declined faster—the 18 Pro dropped from 22 days to 13 days after approximately 20 days on market, and the Pro Max dropped from 30 days to 24 days after approximately 27 days.
The iPhone 17 Pro Max requires approximately 39 days during the same period. Differences among various colors are minimal.
Regionally, delivery times in the United States, the United Kingdom, India, and Japan are generally slightly shorter than those of the previous Pro series, with Hong Kong being a clear exception: average delivery time increased from 18 days in the previous generation to 25.
Today. Goldman Sachs explained the price difference—the iPhone 18 Pro 256GB is about 10% cheaper in Hong Kong, and the price gap for the Pro Max 2TB is even wider, reaching approximately
12.5%, which may attract some demand from mainland China. Conversely, with shortened lead times in mainland China, Goldman Sachs estimates that some demand is waiting for the iPhone.
Duo (foldable), as mainland consumers are more familiar with foldable phones.
However, early demand indicators are not poor: first, the delivery time for the 18 Pro Max is better than the overall Pro series, roughly comparable to the 17 Pro Max, and better than the 16 Pro.
Max; second, Counterpoint data shows that the 18 Pro series achieved a 12% year-over-year growth in its first week in China, accounting for 33% of China’s smartphone sales for the quarter, with initial estimates of year-over-year sales growth on the first day in India.
+15% to +28%; third, according to Apple supply chain sources, Apple has increased orders for the 18 Pro Max by 10%–15% and orders for the Duo by 30%, while reducing orders for the 18 Pro.
10%–15%, total Pro series order volume remains unchanged—total volume is unchanged, but the mix has shifted toward higher-priced models. On the first day of pre-orders for the iPhone Duo, the global average wait time was approximately 100.
Day, with minimal variation across regions.
Goldman Sachs also explicitly noted that shipment volumes are not a complete reflection of demand, as they are significantly influenced by channel inventory and supply capacity, and current supply remains constrained. Apple’s management expects supply constraints in F4Q26 to worsen significantly quarter-over-quarter, impacting
iPhone, Mac, and iPad are primarily due to capacity constraints of the advanced nodes used by Apple’s custom SoCs; additional third-party supply chain reports suggest that DRAM supply may be delayed for the A20 Pro.
The assembly of the device model, and the production yield of the iPhone Duo remains below mature levels.
Affordability remains supported by U.S. carrier promotions: According to CIRP, carrier channels accounted for approximately 75% of iPhone sales in the U.S. over the year ending July 2026; AT&T
With T-Mobile offering up to $1,199 in trade-in credits, eligible users can cover the full starting price of the 18 Pro, reducing the actual incremental cost of the 18 Pro Max to approximately $99.
USD. Additionally, Apple's Apple Upgrade program, launched in July in partnership with Klarna, allows users to spread the cost of a device over 12 or 24 months.
Mac and iPad: Double-digit shipment declines offset by price increases in June
Mac is the area with the greatest divergence between Goldman Sachs and the consensus: Goldman Sachs estimates Mac revenue for F4Q26 at $8.683 billion, flat year-over-year, while the FactSet consensus is
+12%. Goldman Sachs assumed a 12% year-over-year decline in shipments (IDC estimated -11%), offset by a 13% year-over-year increase in average selling price. The weak shipment performance stems from three factors: a significant front-loading of demand and inventory in H1 2026 following PC
Weakening market conditions, industry price increases suppressing end-demand, and limited supply.
The price support is concrete: Apple raised average prices across its Mac lineup by approximately 18% in June 2026—the MacBook Neo increased from $599 to $699.
USD (+17%), the 13-inch MacBook Air increased from $1,099 to $1,299 (+18%), and the M5 MacBook Pro increased from $1,699 to
$1,999 (+18%), the M3 Ultra Mac Studio increased from $3,999 to $5,299 (+33%). By F2027, Goldman Sachs expects Mac
Revenue growth accelerated to +15% (projected +6% for F2026), driven by a low base, full-year price increases, and the M6 MacBook Pro/M6 MacBook Air/second-generation...
New products such as the MacBook Neo, along with increased market share in the low- to mid-range PC segment (below $800).
In contrast, the iPad is estimated by Goldman Sachs to generate $7.398 billion in revenue for F4Q26, a 6% year-over-year increase, exceeding the consensus of +1%: unit shipments declined 9% year-over-year, while average selling price rose 17%, driven by the 6
Price increases of over 20% on average across the entire iPad lineup (with a total average increase of 23%)—the entry-level iPad has risen from $349 to $449 (+29%), and the 11-inch iPad Air
Increased from $599 to $749 (+25%). F2027 expected iPad revenue growth of +8%.
Regarding the product pipeline, Goldman Sachs updated its tracking sheet following the October 13 "Welcome Home" launch event: HomeView (7-inch smart home hub, $299, October
Pre-orders open on November 13, with availability on November 13: the next-generation Apple TV 4K, HomePod mini 2, and Home, developed in collaboration with LG Electronics and Schneider Electric.
Collection of smart home accessories (security cameras, video doorbells, smart locks, thermostats) will be released in December 2026 and early 2027. The remainder of 2026 is expected to include an additional
iPad mini 8th generation, M6 MacBook Pro, and updated iMac.
Service business: +10% year-over-year, but the engine has already shifted gears.
Goldman Sachs estimates service revenue for F4Q26 at approximately $31.521 billion, up 10% year-over-year. Structurally, the engine has clearly shifted gears: App Store revenue is approximately $7.48 billion, with only a modest increase.
2% (approximately 24% of service revenue), TAC (Google search traffic acquisition cost share) of approximately $7.2 billion, up 11% (approximately 23%), while iCloud+ increased 12% and AppleCare+
+19%, subscription service +22%.
The App Store is the area to watch most this quarter. Goldman Sachs estimates its growth rate will further decline to +2% from +3% in F3Q26. Sensor Tower data shows that in C3Q26
App Store spending grew 2% year-over-year (below 3% in C2Q26), with +1% in July, flat in August, and a rebound to +5% in September; by region, the U.S. (approximately 33%) declined year-over-year
7% (C2Q26 at -6%), China (approx. 20%) slowed to +8% (previously +10%), Japan (approx. 10%) saw slight improvement to
-2%. In addition to weaker underlying consumption, Goldman Sachs identifies three additional pressures: an increase in off-US payment options, changes in commission structures in China, Japan, and Brazil (previously estimated to collectively account for approximately 5%
percentage-point headwinds, as well as macroeconomic volatility. By category, growth slowed in gaming (approximately 40%) and entertainment (approximately 15%), while photos and video (approximately 9%) improved.
In the long term, Goldman Sachs expects Apple's services revenue to maintain a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9% from 2026 to 2030, reaching $173 billion by FY30; among this, advertising and other segments are projected to grow at +14%.
The compound growth increased to $69 billion, making it the largest source of growth; iCloud+ increased to $19 billion; AppleCare+ increased to $18 billion; first-party services increased to $30 billion.
billion, while the App Store's compound growth rate was only +4%, increasing to $34 billion. Three supporting rationales: Google's TAC payments resilience (Sensor Tower shows iOS
Chrome's usage duration and monthly active users remain largely stable; iCloud+ penetration rate increases with growing data volumes and enhanced Apple Intelligence features; AppleCare+
Growth driven by device upgrades. Apple's price increase for Apple TV in August will also contribute incrementally as churn rates normalize.
Apple TV itself: Goldman Sachs estimates F4Q26 revenue of approximately $2.3 billion, a 33% year-over-year increase, with 1 million net additions to paid subscriptions; approximately 86 launches estimated for C3Q26.
Original series content amortization amounted to approximately $756 million, with an estimated $610 million for C4Q26.
F2027's catalysts: Spring new product launch, Duo device replacement, low base
Goldman Sachs projects a 7% revenue growth for the F2027 iPhone, supported by five sources: the base model iPhone 18, iPhone 18e, and iPhone
The launch of Air 2; accelerated replacement cycle driven by the new form factor of the iPhone Duo; low base after supply constraints in F2H26; full-yearized benefit from price increases; and premium positioning, carrier promotions, and Apple
Upgrade support for affordability. Goldman Sachs believes that, amid rising memory prices squeezing mid- and low-end smartphones, Apple’s premium positioning is a relative advantage—IDC expects by 2027
The overall smartphone market growth will remain limited for the year.
The valuation multiple is the core driver of this upgrade. The target price has been raised from $360 to $390, corresponding to an increase in the valuation multiple from 37x to 40x.
Goldman Sachs' "NTM+1Y" EPS multiple. Goldman Sachs attributes the higher valuation multiple directly to increased confidence in the iPhone replacement cycle following the launch of Duo—not to an upward revision in earnings forecasts (F2026/27/28).
Basic earnings per share remained largely unchanged at $8.89, $9.16, and $9.76, corresponding to P/E ratios of 39.1, 38.0, and 35.6, respectively.
On the investment thesis, Goldman Sachs' logic is: market focus on the slowing growth of hardware revenue has overshadowed the resilience and visibility of Apple's ecosystem and services revenue; growth in installed base, structural growth in services, and new product innovations should offset the extended upgrade cycle and PC
Weakening demand for tablets and other cyclical headwinds; most of the gross margin growth over the next five years will come from services, marking a turning point in the "Apple-as-a-Service" narrative.
There are five key risks: weakening consumer demand (iPhone accounts for approximately X% of F2025 revenue).
50%, highly dependent on upgrading devices), supply chain disruptions (primary final assembly still occurs in China, and some key components rely on a limited number of suppliers), intensified competition (Apple is not market-leading in every business line—for example, its content investment in video streaming is lower than that of some competitors), regulatory risks (facing intense regulatory scrutiny in all major markets, potentially requiring openness of its own products or services), and capital allocation execution (uncertain returns from mergers and acquisitions and share repurchases, which may face stricter regulation). Additionally, Goldman Sachs noted Apple
F2025 returned over $110 billion to shareholders and is expected to expand as free cash flow grows; the company guidance indicates that exchange rates will create approximately 2.5 percentage points of sequential headwind (implying
-1.5%), below the implied level of Goldman Sachs' spot exchange rate model.