Goldman Sachs: Crypto trading volume falls for 10 months, inflection point approaches

According to潮向 Research, a Goldman Sachs report dated August 24, 2026, noted that crypto trading volume declined by 30% in July and 21% in August, marking ten consecutive months of decline—longer than the median duration of the previous five cycles. Trading volume has fallen 75% from its peak, while crypto market capitalization rebounded 21% over the past week. Goldman Sachs believes that if market capitalization remains at current levels, a turning point in trading volume may emerge. On the regulatory front, 35% of institutional investors cite regulatory uncertainty as the primary obstacle, while 32% view regulatory clarity as the key catalyst. The SEC recently proposed an innovative exemption framework, and over ten new digital asset companies received OCC banking charters in 2026, with more than fifteen crypto firms now integrated into the federal banking system. Crypto companies reduced average fees by approximately 5% in 2026, boosting operating profit margins by about 5.8 percentage points. Goldman Sachs maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the second half of the year, with sector valuations at the 30th percentile of their five-year range. Recommended stocks include COIN (target price: $196), HOOD ($124), IBKR ($114—Goldman Sachs U.S. Conviction List), and FIGR ($43). The investment thesis differs across these three categories: traditional brokerages are driven by a September reversal expectation, predictive markets are influenced by election cycles, and crypto equities benefit from three catalysts—market cap rebound, cost reductions, and regulatory reform.