Goldman Sachs: Cloud vendors increase capital expenditures; semiconductor equipment manufacturers benefit

According to Chaoxiang Research, a Goldman Sachs report dated July 31 noted that the four major cloud providers continued to raise their Q2 capital expenditures. Amazon raised its 2026 cash capex guidance from $200 billion to $220 billion, Google raised its guidance to $195–205 billion, and Meta narrowed its range to $130–145 billion. TSMC raised its revenue guidance to over 40% growth and increased its capex guidance to $60–64 billion. Lam Research raised its 2026 WFE forecast to a range of $150 billion, while KLA also raised its forecast above $150 billion, viewing $190 billion as a reasonable level for 2027. Goldman Sachs believes the AI capital expenditure transmission chain is progressively strengthening, with each link—from cloud providers to wafer fabs to equipment suppliers—confirming demand. ASML benefits from demand for EUV and advanced DUV systems, ASMI from demand for ALD and epitaxy, BESI from the adoption of custom chips and investment in advanced packaging, Nebius from expanding compute gaps, and Technoprobe from increased testing intensity. Goldman Sachs assesses that the market may be underestimating the duration and breadth of benefits to upstream equipment suppliers.