FxStreet reports — In early Asian trading on October 19, spot gold rose, trading around $4,178 per ounce, as traders assess the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes this year amid consecutive above-expectation U.S. inflation data.
CoinEx APP reports — On Monday (Beijing Time, October 19), during early Asian trading, spot gold rose, trading around $4,178 per ounce. With U.S. inflation data continuing to exceed expectations, traders are assessing the likelihood of further rate hikes by the Fed this year; U.S. crude oil traded near $98.15 per barrel, having reached a one-month high of $99.34 per barrel last Friday. Investors are evaluating how much diesel Russia can supply to global markets, while expressing concern over escalating tensions in the Middle East. Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that it will not yield to threats, and Iran has already developed contingency plans for any potential new “adventurous actions.”
U.S. stocks closed sharply lower last Friday, with the S&P 500 falling 1.09% to close at 7,659.44, the Nasdaq dropping 2.15% to close at 26,140.03, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edging down 0.34% to close at 52,002.41.
AI-related tech stocks such as CoreWeave and Broadcom came under renewed pressure, as surging oil prices left traders uneasy ahead of the weekend. The Nasdaq continued its decline from earlier last week, as markets worried that highly leveraged AI infrastructure companies may struggle to turn profitable and repay debt, especially as borrowing costs are expected to rise; CoreWeave, backed by NVIDIA, plunged 12%, with a cumulative drop of about 25% over the past five trading days, while its bonds were heavily sold off this week, pushing yields above 15%. Broadcom fell 4.5%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index tumbled 3.8%, marking its eighth consecutive day of declines—the longest such streak since 2008.
Rob Haworth, Senior Investment Strategist for Wealth Management at Bank of America, said there is some panic sentiment in the market, and high oil prices often depress stock price-to-earnings ratios, so investors are remaining cautious rather than taking on additional risk before the weekend. In addition to concerns over AI funding, sources said some of Anthropic’s existing and potential investors are considering lowering the valuation for the company’s upcoming IPO.
Funds shifted from technology stocks to other sectors, with six of the S&P 500’s eleven sectors rising; the energy sector led gains up 2.47%, while the utilities sector rose 1.4%; total volume across U.S. exchanges reached 18.6 billion shares, compared to an average daily volume of 17.7 billion shares over the past 20 trading days.
Last week, both consumer and producer inflation came in higher than expected, indicating that price pressures are spreading from energy-related commodities to other sectors; Federal Reserve Chair Walsh expressed optimism last Friday about the resilience of the U.S. economy, noting that it was surprising to see the global economy holding up amid ongoing energy shocks and tightening monetary policy to combat inflation. Market expectations have risen for the Fed to hold rates steady in October, and Barclays currently forecasts that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in both December and January.
Gold prices remained largely stable last Friday, closing at $4,164.05 per ounce, but fell 0.72% for the week as U.S. inflation data came in higher than expected for a consecutive period, prompting traders to assess the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes this year.
Bart Melek, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at TD Securities, said that gold prices are currently trading within a range, leaning toward the lower end of the support zone, primarily due to significant uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next move; Fed Chair Walsh expressed optimism about the strength of the U.S. economy but provided no clues regarding the interest rate path.
Data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. producer price increase in September posted the largest gain in four and a half years, while Wednesday’s consumer price report indicated that price increases accelerated in September; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee called these data “disappointing,” and Cleveland Fed President Harker stated that if public inflation expectations worsen significantly, the Fed may need to raise rates by a larger margin.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders widely expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady in October and view the probability of a rate hike in December at 90%. Although gold is typically viewed as an inflation hedge, rising interest rates often reduce the appeal of this non-yielding asset. Hamad Hussain, Climate and Commodities Economist at Capital Economics, said that for the remainder of the year, as the Fed continues to raise rates and concerns about the end of the AI boom prove to be temporary, gold prices may decline slightly.
Oil prices rose last Friday, with U.S. crude increasing 1.53% to close at $99.04 per barrel, while Brent crude rose 3.77% to close at $109.66 per barrel, briefly reaching a five-month high of $109.97 per barrel amid concerns that escalating tensions in the Middle East could further tighten supply, as investors assess how much diesel Russia can supply to global markets.
Energy Aspects reported that rumors of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have raised concerns about escalation, causing WTI and Brent crude to reverse early-session declines; Israeli media reported that Western intelligence agencies have observed unusual military movements suggesting Iran may be preparing a preemptive strike, and although unconfirmed, this has reinforced the view that heightened escalation risks will support futures prices.
The Saudi-led coalition stated that it has intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile aimed at the Red Sea city of Yanbu, a port critical to Saudi Arabia’s efforts to ensure uninterrupted oil flows to international markets by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz; preliminary reports from consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group indicate no damage to Yanbu’s infrastructure. Supply concerns have intensified amid a surge in attacks around the Strait of Hormuz over the past 10 days; Iran has stated that it is escalating strikes in response to U.S. sanctions, including the blockade of its ports and stricter measures imposed last month.
Kpler analysts say that escalated attacks by Iran have caused a sharp decline in crude oil flows in the Gulf region, and without a comprehensive political agreement, crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to recover at a slower and more uneven pace.
On the Russian side, Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery last Thursday, following President Zelensky’s announcement that Kyiv would no longer abide by the ceasefire agreement regarding energy facilities declared by Trump. Dennis Kissler, Senior Vice President at BOK Financial’s trading division, said that ongoing flare-ups in the Middle East, combined with uncertainty over how much diesel Russia can actually supply to the market, continue to drive traders to remain buyers. To increase supply, the International Energy Agency agreed last Thursday to release over 20 million barrels of fuel onto the market; on Friday, the U.S. Department of Energy announced it had issued a tender to swap up to 17 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.21% last Friday to close at 101.76, as market expectations for Fed rate hikes weakened and concerns over AI-driven stock sell-offs persisted.
Comments from Federal Reserve officials suggested no urgency to further tighten policy, helping to stabilize U.S. Treasury yields and weaken the dollar. Last week, sharp sell-offs in AI-related stocks spilled over into parts of the credit market, as investors worried that data center operators might not generate profits quickly enough to service their debt. Matt Weller, Head of Global Market Research at StoneX, noted that one of the most intriguing aspects is how closely the dollar is tied to AI trading—typically, when tech stocks are sold off, the dollar benefits from safe-haven buying, but last week, as some capital flowed into bonds for safety, the dollar actually declined.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market now estimates an 83% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at its October meeting, up from 49% a month ago; Fed Chair Powell offered no clues about future rate decisions last Friday at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, stating he would not “pre-judge the outcome of the meeting.” John Willis, Head of Americas Macro Strategy at BNY Mellon, said there is insufficient support within the committee, particularly among Fed governors, for a rate hike in October; whether to hike in December remains uncertain, and much could happen between now and then.
The U.S. dollar posted its first weekly decline against the euro and yen in over a month, reflecting reduced market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes and lingering concerns about AI-driven stock sell-offs. Following a sharp spike in French bond risk premiums in early October, French fiscal risks continue to unsettle investors; market participants anticipate that Trump will avoid further escalation in the Middle East or Ukraine, as broader conflicts could elevate inflation and harm his support ahead of the midterm elections.
The USD/JPY fell 0.08% to 158.11 yen, as recent oil price gains supported the dollar while pressuring currencies of energy-importing nations such as the euro and yen. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated last Friday that the risk of core inflation exceeding the central bank’s 2% target remains.
The British pound and Swiss franc posted some of the largest gains against the U.S. dollar among major currencies; the Swiss franc was supported by safe-haven demand, as markets also expect the Swiss National Bank to be unlikely to lower its currently zero policy rate into negative territory, even if further rate cuts occur; the pound rose 0.31% to $1.3314, accumulating a 0.63% gain last week; the U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc fell 0.25% to 0.8246, down 0.67% for the week.
Iran's Foreign Minister: Yielding to threats is not an option; the Hormuz Seven-Day proposal remains valid
Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that Iran will never yield under threats and is more capable than ever of defending itself; at the same time, Iran is prepared to engage if diplomatic avenues are conducted with dignity, honor, and guarantee the rights of the Iranian people. He noted that Iran’s conditions are fully clear and have been submitted to the United States in the form of a “seven-day plan,” with the U.S. having offered its own feedback, which Iran is still responding to. Tehran’s seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains valid: if the United States complies with Iran’s conditions, the strait can be reopened within six days, with negotiations resuming on the seventh day.
The U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, with elections for both chambers of Congress and multiple state offices.
The U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 3. The Democratic and Republican parties will compete for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate. In addition to congressional elections, several U.S. states will also elect governors, state legislators, and certain local officials.
Vance: Gas prices are expected to fall after the conflict ends; Iran must commit to not rebuilding its nuclear program.
Vice President Vance said that after the conflict ends, gasoline prices will decline, and U.S. forces will ensure the smooth passage of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. He also warned that if Iran is allowed to control shipping in the strait, global energy supplies will be restricted and gasoline prices will rise. Vance stated that, in some sense, Washington has already achieved a decisive victory over Iran; however, the conflict cannot be considered over until Tehran makes a firm commitment to guarantee it will not rebuild its nuclear program.
Trump signs executive order exempting certain sanctions and tariff restrictions
The executive order released by the White House shows that Trump has declared exemptions from certain sanctions, restrictions, and tariffs stipulated under the Graham Act. Trump stated that he has submitted certification to Congress indicating that issuing this exemption serves the national interest of the United States. The executive order was publicly issued by the White House, but details regarding the specific scope and applicable parties of the exemption have not been disclosed. Overall, this move involves easing specific sanctions and trade restrictions, and further implementation details remain to be observed. The market is closely watching whether the exemption pertains to sectors such as energy and finance, as well as Congress’s response.
Iran: Prepared response plans for potential new "adventurous moves"
On the 18th, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said that Iran’s armed forces have prepared response plans for any new “adventurous actions.” Rezaei stated on social media that the frantic rhetoric and repeated threats from U.S. and Israeli officials in recent days have not changed the reality on the ground. In the face of any potential new “adventurous actions,” Iran’s armed forces have developed response plans whose destructive power will far exceed previous ones. Iran’s new operational plan will no longer adhere to the rules familiar to the other side. (Xinhua News Agency)
Large-scale protests occurred in multiple cities in France, with hundreds arrested
On the 17th, protests and demonstrations occurred in multiple regions of France, with violent incidents reported in some areas and hundreds of people arrested. That evening, French Interior Minister Nunez, in an interview with BFMTV, stated that the total number of protesters across France reached 550,000, including 110,000 in Paris, with an initial count of approximately 400 arrests nationwide. According to the French General Confederation of Labor, the total number of protesters nationwide reached 800,000. French media reported that the demonstrations brought together groups such as farmers, climate activists, and students, with several unions also participating, addressing demands including fuel prices, cost of living, education, and public services. (Xinhua)
Zelensky says Ukraine and the U.S. could hold their next round of talks as early as this week
On the 17th local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Ukraine is willing to continue pursuing an end to the war through diplomatic channels involving the United States, with the possibility of a new round of talks as early as this week. Zelensky said Ukraine is open to any location and format for the talks—whether held within Ukraine, in a European country, or in the United States—and is willing to participate in talks involving two, three, or even five parties. He also emphasized that the core objective of the negotiations is to achieve peace, not to focus on form.
The probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates in October is 16.1%, and the probability of at least one more rate hike this year is 91.8%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed will hold rates steady by October is 83.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 16.1%. The probability that the Fed will hold rates steady by December is 8.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 77.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 14.5%.
The top five global humanoid robot revenue earners are all Chinese companies; Shenzhen's robot exports surged over 1,200% in the first eight months.
Recently, the international consulting firm Frost & Sullivan released the "2026 Global Humanoid Robot Market Research Report." In the first half of this year, global sales of humanoid robots reached 36,000 units, surpassing the full-year total of 35,000 units in 2025; market revenue reached $540 million. By revenue, the top five global humanoid robot companies in the first half of this year were all Chinese enterprises, with two of them based in Shenzhen. On the afternoon of the 16th, a high-level U.S. delegation arrived at Shenzhen’s Nanshan “Robot Valley” for an inspection visit. In Shenzhen’s Nanshan “Robot Valley,” a complete industrial chain is highly concentrated, covering core components, full-system manufacturing, software algorithms, and system integration. Liu Tuo, founder of Shenzhen Tuoji Technology, said that prototyping in Silicon Valley takes two months due to the need to source components globally; however, in Shenzhen, 90% of components can be found within the “Robot Valley.” The Shenzhen Robot Valley hosts over 200 enterprises in the robotics supply chain, forming a comprehensive industrial chain spanning algorithm software, perception systems, actuation systems, and core components. According to Shenzhen Customs data, from January to August this year, Shenzhen exported a total of RMB 11.13 billion in various separately listed robots, a 12.2-fold increase year-over-year, with products now sold to more than 120 countries and regions worldwide. (CCTV Finance)
Concerning the operation of the national economy and technology-driven commerce, two important press conferences are being held today.
Two important press conferences will be held today, focusing on the operation of the national economy and the advancement of technology-driven commerce. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on Monday, October 19, at 10:00 a.m., during which Mao Shengyong, Spokesperson and Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, will introduce the economic operation situation in the first three quarters of 2026 and respond to questions from reporters. The State Council Information Office will hold another press conference on Monday, October 19, at 3:00 p.m., during which Assistant Minister of Commerce Yuan Xiaoming, along with relevant officials from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, will introduce efforts to accelerate technology-driven commerce and respond to questions from reporters. (CCTV News)
Heads of four financial regulators will speak! Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting opens today
The 2026 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting will be held from October 19 to 22 in Beijing’s Financial Street, with over 400 distinguished guests from more than 40 countries and regions attending. This year’s theme is “Openness, Cooperation, Inclusiveness—Building a New Global Financial Ecosystem Together.” The forum will feature four formats: the main forum (including opening and closing ceremonies), parallel forums, thematic conferences, and related events, with a total of 21 session activities planned for the main and parallel forums, plus three thematic conferences. Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People’s Bank of China; Ding Xiangqun, Chairperson of the National Financial Supervision and Administration总局; Wu Qing, Chairperson of the China Securities Regulatory Commission; and Zhu Hexin, Governor of the State Foreign Exchange Administration, will attend the 2026 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting and deliver keynote speeches. (CCTV News)
Focus today
Stock market
U.S. stocks closed sharply lower last Friday, with the S&P 500 falling 1.09% to close at 7,659.44, the Nasdaq dropping 2.15% to close at 26,140.03, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edging down 0.34% to close at 52,002.41.
AI-related tech stocks such as CoreWeave and Broadcom came under renewed pressure, as surging oil prices left traders uneasy ahead of the weekend. The Nasdaq continued its decline from earlier last week, as markets worried that highly leveraged AI infrastructure companies may struggle to turn profitable and repay debt, especially as borrowing costs are expected to rise; CoreWeave, backed by NVIDIA, plunged 12%, with a cumulative drop of about 25% over the past five trading days, while its bonds were heavily sold off this week, pushing yields above 15%. Broadcom fell 4.5%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index tumbled 3.8%, marking its eighth consecutive day of declines—the longest such streak since 2008.
Rob Haworth, Senior Investment Strategist for Wealth Management at Bank of America, said there is some panic sentiment in the market, and high oil prices often depress stock price-to-earnings ratios, so investors are remaining cautious rather than taking on additional risk before the weekend. In addition to concerns over AI funding, sources said some of Anthropic’s existing and potential investors are considering lowering the valuation for the company’s upcoming IPO.
Funds shifted from technology stocks to other sectors, with six of the S&P 500’s eleven sectors rising; the energy sector led gains up 2.47%, while the utilities sector rose 1.4%; total volume across U.S. exchanges reached 18.6 billion shares, compared to an average daily volume of 17.7 billion shares over the past 20 trading days.
Last week, both consumer and producer inflation came in higher than expected, indicating that price pressures are spreading from energy-related commodities to other sectors; Federal Reserve Chair Walsh expressed optimism last Friday about the resilience of the U.S. economy, noting that it was surprising to see the global economy holding up amid ongoing energy shocks and tightening monetary policy to combat inflation. Market expectations have risen for the Fed to hold rates steady in October, and Barclays currently forecasts that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in both December and January.
Gold Market
Gold prices remained largely stable last Friday, closing at $4,164.05 per ounce, but fell 0.72% for the week as U.S. inflation data came in higher than expected for a consecutive period, prompting traders to assess the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes this year.
Bart Melek, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at TD Securities, said that gold prices are currently trading within a range, leaning toward the lower end of the support zone, primarily due to significant uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next move; Fed Chair Walsh expressed optimism about the strength of the U.S. economy but provided no clues regarding the interest rate path.
Data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. producer price increase in September posted the largest gain in four and a half years, while Wednesday’s consumer price report indicated that price increases accelerated in September; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee called these data “disappointing,” and Cleveland Fed President Harker stated that if public inflation expectations worsen significantly, the Fed may need to raise rates by a larger margin.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders widely expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady in October and view the probability of a rate hike in December at 90%. Although gold is typically viewed as an inflation hedge, rising interest rates often reduce the appeal of this non-yielding asset. Hamad Hussain, Climate and Commodities Economist at Capital Economics, said that for the remainder of the year, as the Fed continues to raise rates and concerns about the end of the AI boom prove to be temporary, gold prices may decline slightly.
Oil market
Oil prices rose last Friday, with U.S. crude increasing 1.53% to close at $99.04 per barrel, while Brent crude rose 3.77% to close at $109.66 per barrel, briefly reaching a five-month high of $109.97 per barrel amid concerns that escalating tensions in the Middle East could further tighten supply, as investors assess how much diesel Russia can supply to global markets.
Energy Aspects reported that rumors of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have raised concerns about escalation, causing WTI and Brent crude to reverse early-session declines; Israeli media reported that Western intelligence agencies have observed unusual military movements suggesting Iran may be preparing a preemptive strike, and although unconfirmed, this has reinforced the view that heightened escalation risks will support futures prices.
The Saudi-led coalition stated that it has intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile aimed at the Red Sea city of Yanbu, a port critical to Saudi Arabia’s efforts to ensure uninterrupted oil flows to international markets by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz; preliminary reports from consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group indicate no damage to Yanbu’s infrastructure. Supply concerns have intensified amid a surge in attacks around the Strait of Hormuz over the past 10 days; Iran has stated that it is escalating strikes in response to U.S. sanctions, including the blockade of its ports and stricter measures imposed last month.
Kpler analysts say that escalated attacks by Iran have caused a sharp decline in crude oil flows in the Gulf region, and without a comprehensive political agreement, crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to recover at a slower and more uneven pace.
On the Russian side, Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery last Thursday, following President Zelensky’s announcement that Kyiv would no longer abide by the ceasefire agreement regarding energy facilities declared by Trump. Dennis Kissler, Senior Vice President at BOK Financial’s trading division, said that ongoing flare-ups in the Middle East, combined with uncertainty over how much diesel Russia can actually supply to the market, continue to drive traders to remain buyers. To increase supply, the International Energy Agency agreed last Thursday to release over 20 million barrels of fuel onto the market; on Friday, the U.S. Department of Energy announced it had issued a tender to swap up to 17 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Forex
The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.21% last Friday to close at 101.76, as market expectations for Fed rate hikes weakened and concerns over AI-driven stock sell-offs persisted.
Comments from Federal Reserve officials suggested no urgency to further tighten policy, helping to stabilize U.S. Treasury yields and weaken the dollar. Last week, sharp sell-offs in AI-related stocks spilled over into parts of the credit market, as investors worried that data center operators might not generate profits quickly enough to service their debt. Matt Weller, Head of Global Market Research at StoneX, noted that one of the most intriguing aspects is how closely the dollar is tied to AI trading—typically, when tech stocks are sold off, the dollar benefits from safe-haven buying, but last week, as some capital flowed into bonds for safety, the dollar actually declined.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market now estimates an 83% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at its October meeting, up from 49% a month ago; Fed Chair Powell offered no clues about future rate decisions last Friday at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, stating he would not “pre-judge the outcome of the meeting.” John Willis, Head of Americas Macro Strategy at BNY Mellon, said there is insufficient support within the committee, particularly among Fed governors, for a rate hike in October; whether to hike in December remains uncertain, and much could happen between now and then.
The U.S. dollar posted its first weekly decline against the euro and yen in over a month, reflecting reduced market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes and lingering concerns about AI-driven stock sell-offs. Following a sharp spike in French bond risk premiums in early October, French fiscal risks continue to unsettle investors; market participants anticipate that Trump will avoid further escalation in the Middle East or Ukraine, as broader conflicts could elevate inflation and harm his support ahead of the midterm elections.
The USD/JPY fell 0.08% to 158.11 yen, as recent oil price gains supported the dollar while pressuring currencies of energy-importing nations such as the euro and yen. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated last Friday that the risk of core inflation exceeding the central bank’s 2% target remains.
The British pound and Swiss franc posted some of the largest gains against the U.S. dollar among major currencies; the Swiss franc was supported by safe-haven demand, as markets also expect the Swiss National Bank to be unlikely to lower its currently zero policy rate into negative territory, even if further rate cuts occur; the pound rose 0.31% to $1.3314, accumulating a 0.63% gain last week; the U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc fell 0.25% to 0.8246, down 0.67% for the week.
International News
Iran's Foreign Minister: Yielding to threats is not an option; the Hormuz Seven-Day proposal remains valid
Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that Iran will never yield under threats and is more capable than ever of defending itself; at the same time, Iran is prepared to engage if diplomatic avenues are conducted with dignity, honor, and guarantee the rights of the Iranian people. He noted that Iran’s conditions are fully clear and have been submitted to the United States in the form of a “seven-day plan,” with the U.S. having offered its own feedback, which Iran is still responding to. Tehran’s seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains valid: if the United States complies with Iran’s conditions, the strait can be reopened within six days, with negotiations resuming on the seventh day.
The U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, with elections for both chambers of Congress and multiple state offices.
The U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 3. The Democratic and Republican parties will compete for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate. In addition to congressional elections, several U.S. states will also elect governors, state legislators, and certain local officials.
Vance: Gas prices are expected to fall after the conflict ends; Iran must commit to not rebuilding its nuclear program.
Vice President Vance said that after the conflict ends, gasoline prices will decline, and U.S. forces will ensure the smooth passage of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. He also warned that if Iran is allowed to control shipping in the strait, global energy supplies will be restricted and gasoline prices will rise. Vance stated that, in some sense, Washington has already achieved a decisive victory over Iran; however, the conflict cannot be considered over until Tehran makes a firm commitment to guarantee it will not rebuild its nuclear program.
Trump signs executive order exempting certain sanctions and tariff restrictions
The executive order released by the White House shows that Trump has declared exemptions from certain sanctions, restrictions, and tariffs stipulated under the Graham Act. Trump stated that he has submitted certification to Congress indicating that issuing this exemption serves the national interest of the United States. The executive order was publicly issued by the White House, but details regarding the specific scope and applicable parties of the exemption have not been disclosed. Overall, this move involves easing specific sanctions and trade restrictions, and further implementation details remain to be observed. The market is closely watching whether the exemption pertains to sectors such as energy and finance, as well as Congress’s response.
Iran: Prepared response plans for potential new "adventurous moves"
On the 18th, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said that Iran’s armed forces have prepared response plans for any new “adventurous actions.” Rezaei stated on social media that the frantic rhetoric and repeated threats from U.S. and Israeli officials in recent days have not changed the reality on the ground. In the face of any potential new “adventurous actions,” Iran’s armed forces have developed response plans whose destructive power will far exceed previous ones. Iran’s new operational plan will no longer adhere to the rules familiar to the other side. (Xinhua News Agency)
Large-scale protests occurred in multiple cities in France, with hundreds arrested
On the 17th, protests and demonstrations occurred in multiple regions of France, with violent incidents reported in some areas and hundreds of people arrested. That evening, French Interior Minister Nunez, in an interview with BFMTV, stated that the total number of protesters across France reached 550,000, including 110,000 in Paris, with an initial count of approximately 400 arrests nationwide. According to the French General Confederation of Labor, the total number of protesters nationwide reached 800,000. French media reported that the demonstrations brought together groups such as farmers, climate activists, and students, with several unions also participating, addressing demands including fuel prices, cost of living, education, and public services. (Xinhua)
Zelensky says Ukraine and the U.S. could hold their next round of talks as early as this week
On the 17th local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Ukraine is willing to continue pursuing an end to the war through diplomatic channels involving the United States, with the possibility of a new round of talks as early as this week. Zelensky said Ukraine is open to any location and format for the talks—whether held within Ukraine, in a European country, or in the United States—and is willing to participate in talks involving two, three, or even five parties. He also emphasized that the core objective of the negotiations is to achieve peace, not to focus on form.
The probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates in October is 16.1%, and the probability of at least one more rate hike this year is 91.8%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed will hold rates steady by October is 83.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 16.1%. The probability that the Fed will hold rates steady by December is 8.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 77.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 14.5%.
Domestic News
The top five global humanoid robot revenue earners are all Chinese companies; Shenzhen's robot exports surged over 1,200% in the first eight months.
Recently, the international consulting firm Frost & Sullivan released the "2026 Global Humanoid Robot Market Research Report." In the first half of this year, global sales of humanoid robots reached 36,000 units, surpassing the full-year total of 35,000 units in 2025; market revenue reached $540 million. By revenue, the top five global humanoid robot companies in the first half of this year were all Chinese enterprises, with two of them based in Shenzhen. On the afternoon of the 16th, a high-level U.S. delegation arrived at Shenzhen’s Nanshan “Robot Valley” for an inspection visit. In Shenzhen’s Nanshan “Robot Valley,” a complete industrial chain is highly concentrated, covering core components, full-system manufacturing, software algorithms, and system integration. Liu Tuo, founder of Shenzhen Tuoji Technology, said that prototyping in Silicon Valley takes two months due to the need to source components globally; however, in Shenzhen, 90% of components can be found within the “Robot Valley.” The Shenzhen Robot Valley hosts over 200 enterprises in the robotics supply chain, forming a comprehensive industrial chain spanning algorithm software, perception systems, actuation systems, and core components. According to Shenzhen Customs data, from January to August this year, Shenzhen exported a total of RMB 11.13 billion in various separately listed robots, a 12.2-fold increase year-over-year, with products now sold to more than 120 countries and regions worldwide. (CCTV Finance)
Concerning the operation of the national economy and technology-driven commerce, two important press conferences are being held today.
Two important press conferences will be held today, focusing on the operation of the national economy and the advancement of technology-driven commerce. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on Monday, October 19, at 10:00 a.m., during which Mao Shengyong, Spokesperson and Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, will introduce the economic operation situation in the first three quarters of 2026 and respond to questions from reporters. The State Council Information Office will hold another press conference on Monday, October 19, at 3:00 p.m., during which Assistant Minister of Commerce Yuan Xiaoming, along with relevant officials from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, will introduce efforts to accelerate technology-driven commerce and respond to questions from reporters. (CCTV News)
Heads of four financial regulators will speak! Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting opens today
The 2026 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting will be held from October 19 to 22 in Beijing’s Financial Street, with over 400 distinguished guests from more than 40 countries and regions attending. This year’s theme is “Openness, Cooperation, Inclusiveness—Building a New Global Financial Ecosystem Together.” The forum will feature four formats: the main forum (including opening and closing ceremonies), parallel forums, thematic conferences, and related events, with a total of 21 session activities planned for the main and parallel forums, plus three thematic conferences. Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People’s Bank of China; Ding Xiangqun, Chairperson of the National Financial Supervision and Administration总局; Wu Qing, Chairperson of the China Securities Regulatory Commission; and Zhu Hexin, Governor of the State Foreign Exchange Administration, will attend the 2026 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting and deliver keynote speeches. (CCTV News)