BlockBeats news, on August 6, over the past two days, international gold prices ended a nearly month-long consolidation, with spot gold briefly rising above $4,300 per ounce and reaching a new high since early July. This round of gold recovery was not driven by a single factor, but rather by a combination of macroeconomic policy expectations, official demand, institutional capital inflows, and market sentiment.
On a macro level, U.S. ADP employment data for July showed an increase of only 44,000 jobs, significantly below market expectations, indicating that the U.S. labor market continues to cool. As a result, markets lowered their expectations for further Fed policy tightening. Meanwhile, expectations for a U.S. interest rate hike in September have notably diminished, leading to simultaneous declines in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, which has renewed gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. Markets are now awaiting the non-farm payrolls data to confirm whether the U.S. economy is further slowing.
On the geopolitical front, recent signs of de-escalation have emerged in the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic negotiations among the United States, Iran, and Oman have made progress, leading market participants to anticipate a reduced risk to global energy transportation. This has contributed to a decline in international oil prices and a cooling of energy inflation expectations, further weakening market bets on the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish policy stance—becoming a key catalyst for gold’s recent rally.
Official demand remains the most important long-term support for the gold market. The Bank of Korea announced its return to gold purchases after 13 years, having already begun allocating gold ETFs and planning to establish a mechanism for purchasing physical gold within South Korea. Meanwhile, data from the World Gold Council shows that global central banks net purchased 288.9 tons of gold in the second quarter of 2026, a 62% year-over-year increase and a record high for the same period, demonstrating that central banks worldwide continue to pursue diversification of reserve assets, with strong ongoing demand for strategic gold allocations.
In terms of fund flows, China’s gold ETFs have recorded net inflows for 14 consecutive trading days, the longest such streak since March this year. Macro funds have steadily increased their gold allocations since June, while Asian capital has returned to the gold market. Meanwhile, the price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange has once again risen above the London gold price, reflecting sustained improvement in Asian physical demand and providing key support for the stabilization and recovery of gold prices.
On the institutional front, multiple Wall Street institutions continue to maintain a bullish long-term outlook for gold. Deutsche Bank believes gold remains in its "explosive rally phase" since 2024 and maintains a target price of $4,600 by end-2026. UBS expects gold to reach $4,600 by year-end, supported by sustained central bank buying, recovering investment demand, and a shift in Federal Reserve policy, with further potential to challenge $5,000 by 2027. Citigroup, State Street Global Advisors, and other institutions also anticipate that gold will retain upside potential over the medium to long term, supported by continued central bank purchases and sustained capital inflows.