BlockBeats news: On September 1, international spot gold quickly retraced after rising nearly 10% in August, with market expectations for further gains significantly cooling. Polymarket data shows that the probability of gold reaching $5,000 per ounce by year-end is now only slightly above 50%, the probability of reaching $4,500 is nearly certain, and the chance of hitting $6,000 has dropped to approximately 13%; the likelihood of returning to $4,700 in the short term is less than one-third.
Affected by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and higher oil prices, spot gold dropped more than 2% on Tuesday to around $4,350 per ounce, significantly retracing from its previous high of approximately $4,697. Following Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium, market expectations for a September rate hike rose to about 66%, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to approximately 4.78%. Meanwhile, Brent crude surged above $91 per barrel, further intensifying inflationary pressures.
However, the long-term upward rationale for gold has not disappeared, as fiscal deficits, expanding government debt, and concerns over the dollar’s purchasing power continue to support gold prices. Citigroup expects gold to rise to $5,000 over the next 6 to 12 months and has raised its short-term target to $4,800. The market’s focus will now shift to U.S. employment and inflation data to determine whether gold’s bullish momentum can be rekindled.